Ellis Starr's Blog - AmWager

  • 05
    APR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, April 6

    Shakertown Stakes – Race 7 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:35 PM Eastern

    Imprimis, as well as the other four listed contenders, will benefit immensely from a very hot and contested early pace duel. This is because Richard’s Boy, Shakhimat, Bay Muzik, Conquest Tsunami and Latent Revenge are ALL horses that win only if they have the lead in the early stages. It’s only going to take three of the five to go out and tear through the opening quarter and half-mile and set up the horses with a good finishing kick. Imprimis is a lightly raced five year old with a six-for-eight record, all on turf, with ALL six of the wins coming at five or five and one-half furlongs. His last effort, on 3/9, which followed six months off, was his best ever, with a 114 Equibase figure which is just shy of the 117 figure last year’s winner Bound for Nowhere earned and with improvement logical second off the layoff, Imprimis can run that kind of race to win.

    Bound for Nowhere won the race last year off a prep one month earlier but this year returns from six months off. That’s not an issue as he won his career debut by six and won off three months later as well. Winner of five of nine career starts, Bound for Nowhere is a strong contender to win this race two years in a row.

    Disco Partner is another “win type,” with 11 victories in 28 races, 10 on turf including an important stakes (Belmont Turf Sprint) last October off a short rest. He finished third in this race last year, run on a wet course, and prefers firm ground like he will get today so must be respected but opens at much lower odds than the top two listed contenders.

    Will Call finishes fast for second, beaten just a half-length, in the fall equivalent of this race, the Woodford Stakes, in October. He was a bit overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup Turf sprint and is back at a level he can run competitively.

    Jazzy Times gives us a longshot to help make a profit on exacta tickets as he opens at 20/1. He won two in a row last summer before taking a break and has fired fresh. Both wins came in his only two turf sprints and he’s been working well for his comeback. The 107 figure earned in the best of the two efforts wasn’t too bad and so he could run better than those high odds suggest.

    Consider win bets on the contenders at these odds or above:

    Imprimis – 2/1

    Bound for Nowhere – 2/1

    For smaller amounts:

    Will Call - 7/2

    Jazzy Times – 8/1

    When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exactas:

    Imprimis and Bound for Nowhere over ALL

    Box Imprimis, Bound for Nowhere, Disco Partner, Will Call, and Jazzy Times.

    Doubles: Imprimis, Bound for Nowhere, Disco Partner, Will Call, and Jazzy Times in Race 7 with Late Night Pow Wow, Create a Star, Shamrock Rose and Spiced Perfection in race 8.

    Madison Stakes – Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern

    Although Kentucky is the breeding capital of the world, and at many times of the year the racing capital of the world, there are occasions when stars emerge from unusual locations, and this is just such as case as Late Night Pow Wow was bred in West Virginia while Create a Star was bred in Oklahoma.

     

    Late Night Pow Wow doesn’t know her origins but she does know how to win, with 11 wins in 12 races and a second place finish in the other She’s reeled off nine wins in a row going back to last June and she likes racing often. She is a perfect five-for-five at this seven furlong trip and just won the Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie Stakes in Maryland with a career-best 107 figure. She’s a four year old so may not have run her best race yet, she does not need the lead, and she gets Saez, all signs for another win.

    Although Create a Star doesn’t have nearly the credentials of Late Night Pow Wow, she’s very interesting and she opens at 20 to 1 odds. Her Breeder is also her owner and her trainer and while a majority of the time that means a horse is placed over its head, in the case of C.R. Trout that rule is out the window. This guy knows his stuff and is a sharp horseman who shipped in Oklahoma Bred Shotgun Gulch to win the 2011 Madison at odds of 12/1. Trout has won 13 of 36 dirt sprint stakes races in the last few years and the filly put in a sharp half-mile workout in Arkansas before coming here so I think we’d be remiss if we didn’t at least bet a few bucks to win on her and use her on exacta tickets.

    Shamrock Rose won the fall version of this race, the Raven Run Stakes, which is for three year olds only, then beat her elders when taking the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at 25 to 1. She didn’t like the sloppy track in her four year old debut in January but ran tremendously well when tried around two turns and facing two of the top female dirt route stars in the division in Midnight Bisou and Elate, respectably checking in third after leading at the point TODAY’S race ends. As such, repeating that effort or either of her last two starts of 2018 make her tough to beat.

    Spiced Perfection missed by a head on the wire to Late Night Pow Wow in the Fritchie stakes and won three of four before that, two at this seven furlong trip including the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, giving her the same credentials as Shamrock Rose’s win in the Raven Run. She shows up every time and her chances can’t be discounted for an instant.

    Bets: Late Night Pow Wow to win at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

    Create a Star to win and place (or win, place and show) at 6 to 1 or more.

    Always try to use a "Dutching" tool when making multiple win bets as it provides help with maximizing profit. Amwager offers you one for free along with many other perks.

    Exacta: Box Late Night Pow Wow, Create a Star, Shamrock Rose and Spiced Perfection.

    Doubles: Late Night Pow Wow, Create a Star, Shamrock Rose and Spiced Perfection in race 8 with Feedback, Chocolate Kisses and Lady Kate in race 9.

    Wood Memorial Stakes – Race 10 at Aqueduct - Post Time 6 PM Eastern

    Hoffa's Union may have won his one and only start leading from start to finish but I doubt he's a need-the-lead type because he ran slowly early (82 interior speed figure) and accelerated late to win by 15 with a 103 Equibase Figure. That was as good an effort as stakes winners Tax (103 winning the Withers) and Tacitus (105 winning the Tampa Bay Derby) earned and the gelding is likely to improve a LOT in his 2nd start and with the addition of Lasix. He was privately purchased out of the race and ships up from Keeneland to run here and not in the Blue Grass, which could be a very smart move on the part of his new trainer Mark Casse.

    Tax has won at this nine furlong trip and he continues to improve with each start as his figures went from 82 last fall to100 winning the Remsen in December to 103 in February when winning the Withers gamely by a head. He's worked sensationally coming into the race, gets the ground saving rail and trainer Gargan wins nearly 1/3 of the time in dirt routes (21 for 62) so all signs are "GO" for another career-best effort.

    Not that Brady SHOULD NOT open at 20/1. He didn't really finish the race in the Gotham when not persevered with for the last 1/4 mile, an aberration to be sure. However, he's worked twice since and he likes to lead early, so with it being unlikely Hoffa's Union will go, Not that Brady could be the lone front runner here. In the Withers, right before the poor effort, the gelding set a decent pace and re-rallied into Tax in the final 16th to miss by a head after losing the lead at the 1/8 pole, earning the same 103 figure as the winner. He's definitely worth a bet at high odds here.

    Tacitus is another improving colt with an 86 figure in his debut in a one-turn route over the track in October when 4th then moving to a 94 with a game win in November, then to a strong 105 off the four month layoff when taking the Tampa Bay Derby. Jose Ortiz rides back and this horse is bred to be any kind as he's by Tapit out of the tremendous stakes winning mare Close Hatches.

    Haikal was visually impressive in the Gotham when winning with a big late kick but was set up by a 44 second half mile and that was a one turn race. He will be coming fast but I think it will be too late at this nine furlong trip so I'm only going to use him in the second position on exacta tickets, and I'm throwing in a bunch of others as well because I don't think there will be a heavy favorite here.

    Bets: Hoffa's Union AND Tax to win at odds of 3/1.

    Not that Brady to win and place (or win, place and show) at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

    Exactas:

    For $1 (at least): Not that Brady over ALL and (the opposite) ALL over Not that Brady.

    Box Hoffa's Union, Tax, Not that Brady and Tacitus.

    Optionally, Hoffa's Union, Tax, Not that Brady and Tacitus over Hoffa's Union, Tax, Not that Brady, Tacitus, Haikal, Final Jeopardy, Math Wizard, Outshine and Joevia.

    Santa Anita Derby - Race 8 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:14 PM Eastern (4:14 Pacific)

    Watching the replay of the March 1 allowance race won by Roadster, with Nolo Contesto checking in second, it was apparent Roadster won with more than a modicum of ease. Jockey Mike Smith, who has ridden Roadster in all three career starts, helped the colt to easily relax in third in the early stages and when asked to change gears at the top of the stretch, Roadster responded nicely to pull away to a two and one-half length margin of victory. Following the strong maiden win last July with a 90 Equibase Speed Figure, Roadster ran even better with a 96 figure effort when third in the Del Mar Futurity. Since the comeback effort earned a new career-best 104 figure and since the Santa Anita Derby will represent his second start following six months off and second race around two turns, another similar improvement makes Roadster the one to beat.

    There is no taking away from the accomplishments Game Winner has earned in his five race career.   He won four times and missed by a nose in the other, all graded stakes except his debut. In the third start of his career last fall, Game Winner earned a 111 figure which is pretty much unheard of for a two year old at that time of year. He backed that effort up with a strong two length win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November although his figure regressed to 100. However, after four months off and likely a bit short of being 100% fit because of his work schedule being interrupted by suspended training at Santa Anita, Game Winner redeemed himself with a 110 figure last month in the Rebel. Watching the replay of the Rebel, it was interesting to note that Game Winner easily passed three horses on the backstretch to go from sixth to second, but then was asked pretty hard by jockey Rosario to get to leader Omaha Beach. Making no progress for most of the last quarter mile against his rival, Game Winner really picked up the pace in the last few yards and was cutting into the eventual winner's margin with every stride, coming up a nose short on the wire. Therefore, with any improvement second off the layoff, Game Winner could be starting a new winning streak going into the Kentucky Derby next month.

    Nolo Contesto stretched out to two turns for the first time in January in his second career start winning gamely to earn a 104 figure. In that race he beat Omaha Beach by a half-length, with the runner-up flattering Nolo Contesto when winning the Rebel Stakes last month. However, Nolo Contesto did not improve in the March 1 race won by Roadster, in which jockey Smith (aboard Roadster) made sure Nolo Contesto was without room to run until it was too late as Roadster had accelerated to draw off by two lengths. However, Nolo Contesto galloped out strongly after the finish to be in front of Roadster and he too can improve in his second start off a layoff, so is not without a chance to win.

    Bets: Roadster to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more

    Read more...
  • 29
    MAR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, March 30, 2019

    Pan American Stakes - Race 13 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 6 PM Eastern

    Focus Group actually looks like a standout, or at the least a key in exotic wagers and a great win bet, if he goes to post anywhere near his 4 to 1 starting odds. I nearly always toss the race that led to a long layoff so although his 11th to 3rd rallying finish in the Grade 1 Canadian International in October was good, I’ll look back to his two efforts before that so she what he’s capable of, and that’s a lot. Last July at Saratoga at 11 furlongs on turf, Focus Group rallied from 7th of 8 early to win by ¾ of a length then he followed that up with a win in the 13 furlong (1 5/8 mile) John’s Call Stakes at Saratoga in August, rallying from last of nine to get up by a nose. He always cuts is close when he wins but he’s got a powerful kick and in this field he can blow by the field. He’s won three of six since adding blinkers and although he’s been away for five and one-half months, at this marathon 12 furlong trip that’s not an issue, particularly for the Brown barn which wins with a STRONG 33% of its horses coming back from layoffs like this one.

    Canessar, Melmich, Soglio and Bigger Picture are the other four contenders, with some shot to win and a big shot to run 2nd or 3rd. Canessar was sent off at 3 to 1 in the McKnight in January and had a very troubled trip but he was 2nd in two straight marathons, both graded stakes, prior to that. Melmich rallied fast from 9th to 2nd in the Mac Diarmida four weeks ago and Castellano rides back so he could be putting in a big late run again. Maker trains both Soglio and Bigger Picture and Maker’s starters finished 1st and 3rd in the Mac Diarmida plus Soglio just missed in the stakes race at two miles in December on the course while Bigger Picture won a grade 3 stakes at this 12 furlong turf trip in his most recent start.

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Focus Group to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

    Exacta and Trifecta: Focus Group over Canessar, Melmich, Soglio and Bigger Picture.

    For about half the base amount of the exacta above (for example $2 compared to $5), play an exacta consisting of Canessar, Melmich, Soglio and Bigger Picture over Focus Group.

    Doubles:

    Focus Group in Race 13 with Hidden Scroll, Harvey Wallbanger, Bourbon War, Everfast, Bodexpress and Code of Honor in Race 14.

    Focus Group, Canessar, Melmich, Soglio and Bigger Picture in Race 13 with Bourbon War in Race 14.

    Optionally, Focus Group, Canessar, Melmich, Soglio and Bigger Picture in Race 13 with Hidden Scroll, Harvey Wallbanger, Bourbon War, Everfast, Bodexpress and Code of Honor in Race 14.

    Florida Derby - Race 14 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 6:36 PM Eastern

    Bourbon War makes his third start as a three year old and based on his pattern of improvement appears to be sitting on the best race of his career. Off an impressive maiden win last fall around one turn, Bourbon War was asked to step up his game tremendously when entered in the Remsen Stakes and checked in fourth of nine while never threatening to win. Returning in mid-January as a much more mature horse and debuting around two-turns without a prep race, Bourbon War won by the same two and one-quarter length margin as he had in his debut, but with a then career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 107. Six weeks later in the Fountain of Youth, Bourbon War improved again, this time earning a 110 figure while rallying from ninth in the opening quarter mile to second at the wire, beaten three-quarters of a length by Code of Honor and making up nearly four lengths on that rival in the last eighth of a mile. As a son of Tapit, who produced 2014 Florida Derby winner Constitution, Bourbon War should run even better at this nine furlong trip and with more improvement in his Equibase Speed Figure expected, may be very tough to beat in this race.

    Code of Honor won in his debut last summer then, after stumbling at the start, rallied from 10th to second in the Champagne Stakes in the fall. Rested three months, Code of Honor returned to finish a non-threatening fourth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January. Trainer McGaughey took the blame for that poor effort and stated between that race and the Fountain of Youth he worked Code of Honor very hard, resulting in a rebound of the first order when the colt won at odds of 9 to 1. Code of Honor earned a 111 figure in that race, which was not only a career-best but the highest last race figure in this field. As he is making his third start off the three month layoff, better is certainly possible. As such, Code of Honor deserves a lot of respect when considering who can win this year's Florida Derby.

    Bodexpress will likely go to post at high odds, opening at 30 to 1, which in my opinion will be unjustified because he's got a decent shot to be a contender in the Florida Derby. Horses don't often earn the first wins of their careers in graded stakes as three year olds but it's not unheard of either, and in recent "Road to the Derby" races horses have won following their maiden wins. Bodexpress ran the best race of his career last month when second, beaten a neck, in a seven furlong sprint. The 103 figure was a bit shy of the 111 and 110 figures earned by the top two contenders in this race, but with improvement, his effort and figure could be in that range and so he must be given a long look as another upset possibility in a month where there have been so many in Derby prep races. Additionally, as a son of Bodemeister, who produced 2017 Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming, Bodexpress is bred to go the distance. Additionally, if (as it appears) stretching out Hard Belle and Maximum Security go for the lead and if Hidden Scroll runs as he did in the Fountain of Youth where he set a sizzling early pace, Bodexpress could be passing many, if not all of the field, in the late stages.

    Harvey Wallbanger posted the 29 to 1 upset in the Holy Bull Stakes over the track in February and has waited for this race ever since, passing the Fountain of Youth while continuing to train exceptionally well in the morning. His most recent workout on March 23 was the best of 100 on the day for the distance of four furlongs, indicating he's in peak form. The Holy Bull effort earned him a career-best 104 figure which would be competitive with the main contenders if he improves on it and opening at 15 to 1 he’s very playable. Additionally, Harvey Wallbanger rallied from ninth in the Holy Bull and if a hot early pace scenario comes to pass in this race he is another who could be strongly rallying in the stretch.

    As for Hidden Scroll, it may have been the case he was pushed by another horse (Gladiator King, who since won the Hutcheson Stakes) and forced to run way too fast in the early stages before fading to fourth as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth. It could be just as likely he has yet to learn to relax and is a need-the-lead type. With Hard Belle and Maximum Security both stretching out from sprints and both likely to be running faster-than-average in the early stages while on or very close to the front, I'm taking a stand Hidden Scroll will get tired from either trying to go with those two or chasing a hot pace and I therefore I don't consider him a contender to win this race.

    I also want to throw in Everfast, Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security in the second position on exacta tickets particularly so not to be kicking myself later of Bodexpress or Harvey Wallbanger happens to win.

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Bourbon War to win at odds of 2 to 1.

    For a smaller amount (perhaps just a token $2 or $5) Bodexpress to win and place at 6 to 1 or higher, and Harvey Wallbanger to win and place at 6 to 1 or higher.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Exacta: Harvey Wallbanger, Bourbon War, Bodexpress and Code of Honor over Harvey Wallbanger, Bourbon War, Bodexpress, Code of Honor, Everfast, Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security.

    San Carlos Stakes – Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:58 PM Eastern

    Solid Wager shops back into the top Miller barn after a foray to New York where he won the similar Toboggan Stakes at this seven furlong trip, beating a very good horse in Skyler’s Scramjet, followed by a fine 2nd in the mud at a mile, which is just a bit farther than he wants to run. He’s six for seven at this distance including a very sharp win in the Cary Grant Stakes last fall, with a career best 120 Equibase figure which, if repeated, puts these to shame. Miller rarely uses Pedroza but is 4 for 10 at SA this year and last when he does and the gelding fires big shots off short rests like the one he’s coming back from today, plus gets a great outside post in a field of seven to settle in third or fourth early behind likely leader Ax Man and St. Joe Bay.

    Although not nearly as probable to win, Touching Rainbows has a decent shot to succeed as well, owing to a very strong 7 for 12 record on dirt including a pair of wins at this trip. Five of his seven wins came here at SA including his most recent at the end of January with a 111 figure. That effort if repeated doesn’t beat Solid Wager’s best if he repeats that, but Touching Rainbows earned a career-best 116 figure last April off a layoff and here at SA to posting the mild upset isn’t completely out of the question.

    Ax Man is the only one of the three Baffert entrants who could have a say in the outcome here, with a seven furlong win in February, his most recent start, in a classified allowance which was also his first start versus older horses. He won a restricted stakes last May on Preakness weekend but there’s nothing about him, except for the barn he calls home, which truly justifies favoritism in this race as is suggested by his 5 to 2 starting odds. Similarly, Kanthaka opens at 3 to 1 and although he did win the Barrera Stakes over the track that was last May and it was against three year olds only. He ran 2nd to one of the best sprinters in the world in Roy H two months ago in the G2 Palos Verdes and he’s three-for-four at this trip so he must be respected but again he would need to run a new career best and Solid Wager would need to run poorly for Kanthaka to win. St. Joe Bay missed by a head at 42 to 1 in last year’s San Carlos off a decent effort and although he was 5th and not a threat in the Palos Verdes when last seen he’s been freshened and ran big off a layoff prior to that.

    Bets:

    Win bets: Solid Wager to win at 7 to 5 or more.

    For a smaller amount, Touching Rainbows to win at 5 to 2 or higher.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Exacta: Solid Wager and Touching Rainbows over Solid Wager, Touching Rainbows, Ax Man, Kanthaka and St. Joe Bay,

     

    Santa Ana Stakes- Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:28 PM Eastern

    India Mantuana is a grade 3 stakes winner in a grade 3 stakes, having won the Red Carpet Handicap last fall on the Del Mar turf. That was a mile and three-eighths race, the same distance she won at two races prior to that last August. In both races, she led from start to finish and in this race unless Stradella Road and Franco don't go for the lead from the start or if India Mantuana and Desormeaux get to the front in the first few yards over Stradella Road, India Mantuana is likely to have the early lead all to herself. Considering those two wins at 11 furlongs earned her 106 and 104 Equibase figures, she's going to be tough to beat from there and opening at 10/1 she gets top billing.

    If we're willing to excuse the fact Elysea's World needed her last start, on 2/23, following four and one-half months off, she's a strong contender here. First or second in 11 of 23 career starts, all on turf, she's also a multiple winner at this Grade 3 stakes level, most recently back-to-back last July and September. She was overmatched and that's why she finished 8th of 9 in the G1 E P Taylor Stakes in October, then was moved from Brown to Baltas, from New York to California, and given the aforementioned time off. In the comeback on 2/23 at a mile she rallied from last of nine to sixth, beaten just a length or so for 3rd. She should move forward nicely 2nd off the layoff and her six furlong workout on 3/17 shows she's fit and ready to run her best.

    Tell Me More is a bit below the top two contenders both on the level of class (having never run in a stakes) and speed, as the 102 and 101 recent figures not near the 106 figures India Mantuana and Elysea's World have earned. However, she's been first or second in five of her last six races, all on turf, with the best of those coming at 9 furlongs when last seen in December. She's bred in spades to get the 10 furlong trip on both sides of her family tree and she opens at 10/1 so she has some potential to post the upset win.

    Bets:

    Win bets: Indian Mantuana to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

    For a smaller amount, Tell Me More to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Exactas: India Mantuana, Elysea’s World and Tell Me More over ALL.

    Read more...
  • 22
    MAR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, March 23 and Sunday, March 24

    Cicada Stakes - Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:37 PM Eastern

    Fangirl won a race that was a KEY Race among Key Races, as the second, third and fourth horses ALL won their next starts, and with the fifth horse improving to finish second in her next start. Fangirl earned a 92 Equibase figure for that maiden win, which is BETTER than six of the other seven earned breaking their maidens and which is tied with Miss Imperial for her maiden score in November, also in her 2nd career start like Fangirl. One of the differences between the two fillies is Miss Imperial opens at 5 to 2 while Fangirl opens at 6 to 1 because Miss Imperial won again following her maiden win then finished 2nd in the Ruthless Stakes at the end of January. But, if you look at it another way, Fangirl has every bit as much of a chance to win two in a row as Miss Imperial did in her 2nd start, but is better odds. Although Fangirl led every step of the way in her maiden win on 1/19, she may not be a need-the-lead type with potentially faster “early” horses Forgotten Hero (who was bumped and pinched at the start last out but who led from start to finish in one of her two wins and nearly the same way in her second win) and Stonesintheroad (who led start to finish in her last two wins). With Lezcano riding back and with improving to do in her 3rd career start, Fangirl appears a solid win contender and a key to profit.

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Fangirl to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Box Fangirl and Miss Imperial.

    Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:40 PM Eastern

    I’m tackling this race because I think there’s a standout in the 12th race, the Hutcheson Stakes (and it’s not the favorite). Apreciado and Grand Journey get slight preference in a race in which none of the eight would be much of a surprise. Apreciado was 10th with a ¼ mile to go last month at a mile on this turf course, still 8th with an eighth of a mile to go, but rallied strongly to draw off by nearly 2 lengths. Claimed out of that race by Maker, the gelding has a BIG shot to win his 2nd in a row particularly because of the strength of Maker’s claiming ability and ability to spot his new claims. Over the last 2 years, Maker has won with 17% (of a LOT) of horse first off the claim and in a turf route, and he catches Apreciado on an improving pattern to add to those numbers, getting Reylu Gutierrez in from New York to ride, with a 4 for 7 record for Maker in the last year. Grand Journey has done nothing wrong in three career turf races (from four starts), winning one and finishing 2nd in the other, moved up to first last time out at the end of January via a disqualification and likely the winner if not carried out by the original winner. He 96 Equibase figure is 2nd best in the field, best this year and the best (99) was earned by Appealing Briefs last October, and he’s suspect coming back from 5 ½ months off in a turf route without a race under his belt and for a trainer who is just 2 for 18 with horses coming back from 2 to 6 months in turf routes over the last two years. Grand Journey gets the ground saving rail and has every right to be up in time or to be batting with the fast closing Apreciado on the wire.

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Apreciado and Grand Journey to win at 5 to 2 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Doubles: Apreciado and Grand Journey in Race 11 with In the Loop in Race 12

    Hutcheson Stakes - Race 12 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern

    In the Loop stands out here in spite of opening as the third choice at 3/1. Favorite Federal Case has never run six furlongs and adds blinkers, both questionable moves for a horse who was seventh of nine with no excuse in the Holy Bull last month, while Topper T is winless since last August, in a race for Iowa Breds only at Prairie Meadows. In the Loop won his only start, one month ago, over the track and at this basic six furlong trop. The 93 Equibase figure is one point above Federal Case’s winning figure from one before the Holy Bull (in December) and there are MANY reasons to expect improvement on it in the colt’s second career start.

    Bets:

    Win bets: In the Loop to win at 3 to 2 or more.

    Louisiana Derby - Race 13 at Fair Grounds - Post Time 6:13 PM Eastern

    I’m including this because many people will be watching, but we must note Fair Grounds is not available for betting on Amwager. My detailed analysis of this race can be found at equibase.com as it is the Weekly Feature Race.

    Win contenders:

    Sueno

    Limonite (win, place and show contender at high odds)

    Country House

    War of Will

    Spinoff

    Betting Strategies:

    Win Bets: Sueno to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Limonite to win, place (and possibly show) at odds of 6 to 1 or more. (for a smaller amount than on Sueno).

    Country House to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Sueno over ALL and then the opposite which is ALL over Sueno (4).

    Box Sueno, Limonite, War of Will, Country House and Spinoff.

    Sunday, March 24

    Sunland Park Oaks - Race 9 at Sunland Park - Post Time 6:27 PM Eastern

    I’d be very surprised if neither Victim of Love or Bellafina won this race, and rumor has it Bellafina will scratch so in that case Victim of Love may be a low odds overlay because Chasing Yesterday will be BADLY overbet. Victim of Love is exceptionally well bred and that is why she cost $160K at auction in the fall of 2017 as a yearling. She’s a full sister to Benner Island, a multiple stakes winner, and she’s a half-sister to High North, also a stakes winner, with those two siblings combined having earned three-quarters of a million. Victim of Love won in her 2nd career start in December but was disqualified then romped by nearly 12 lengths on 1/22 before winning the local prep for this race, the Island Fashion Stakes on 2/24. Her Equibase figure of 73 wasn’t great but she has way more in the tank to show us. As for Chasing Yesterday, there is a lot of hype based on her winning three stakes in a row to end her 2 year old campaign but she beat nothing special in all three and she’s been off nearly four months, which was part of the downfall last weekend Improbable and Game Winner.

    Bets:

    Win bets: Victim of Love at odds of 3 to 2 or more.

    If Bellafina runs, play an exacta box of Victim of Love and Bellafina.

    Exactas: Victim of Love over Backflash, K P Slickem, Chasing Yesterday and Enlisting.

    Sunland Park Derby - Race 11 at Sunland Park - Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern

    Wicked Indeed gets preference over another overbet Baffert starter in Mucho Gusto. Wicked Indeed had a race over the track when second to Hustle Up last month in the Mine That Bird Derby, a race in which Hustle Up was allowed an easy lead and coasted around the track in front. With Anothertwistafate and Diamond Blitz in the race, Wicked Indeed can make up the length he lost by last month, PARTICULARLY at the mile and 1/8 trip he’s running for the first time as a son of Tapit. Asmussen saddled the upset winner in one of the two divisions of the Rebel last weekend and is loaded to do the same here, as Wicked Indeed is not only a son of Tapit but he’s out of the mare that produced last year’s 9 furlong Gazelle Stakes winner My Miss Lilly.

    Mucho Gusto is a win contender but will go to post much lower than his 8/5 starting odds. He won the Robert B. Lewis in the slop in a five horse field and the runner-up (Gunmetal Gray) finished a bad fourth in the Rebel while third place Lewis finisher Easy Shot checked in a bad fifth in the Rebel. Before the Lewis, on a fast track, Mucho Gusto hat his had handed to him by Improbable, who won by 5, so it remains to be seen if he’s a true Derby type but in this field he must be used on any and all tickets played.

    Cutting Humor ships in for Pletcher and Johnny V rides so must be given a long look opening at 8/1. The colt showed talent in his last two starts of 2018 when 3rd behind eventual stakes placed Plus Que Parfait, then he won rather easily before taking two months off. In his three year old debut he finished 2nd then in the Southwest he was four wide when rallying early from 6th to get within a neck before fading badly. I think he deserves a look here if he repeats any of his three efforts before the Southwest.

    Bets:

    Win bets: Wicked Indeed at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

    Cutting Humor at 4 to 1 or more and for a smaller amount than on Wicked Indeed.

    Exactas: Box Wicked Indeed, Mucho Gusto and Cutting Humor.

    Read more...
  • 15
    MAR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, March 16

    Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes - Race 5 at Laurel - Post Time 3:12 PM Eastern

    Unbridled Juan brings his “A” game every time, even last month when third in the similar John B. Campbell Stakes. He made a big move on the turn to go from fourth to lead with an eighth of a mile to go and fought to the wire, missing the win by a pair of necks. He won back to back stakes last fall including the identical Richard W. Small Stakes with a 106 Equibase figure, the same as he earned last month, and perhaps just repeating that last effort may be good enough to win.

    Cordmaker and Twisted Tom are the other two who can win, with Cordmaker the better win bet if anywhere near his 5 to 1 starting odds. Overmatched and squeezed back to 14th and last in the General George Stakes last month, Cordmaker stretches out from seven furlongs to two turns for the first time on dirt in his career but as a son of Curlin should have no problem with the distance. He won the Jennings Stakes over the track before the General George, with a career best 105 Equibase Figure, and he’s a four year old so has improving to do off that effort and dropping from graded to non-graded stakes. Twisted Tom ships in from New York for Mott and although he’s run in stakes for NY breds only for the last 18 months he did win a pair of stakes at Laurel as a three year old in the spring of 2017 including the Tesio Stakes at this nine furlong trip. His nose loss in the Alex M. Robb Stakes in December earned a career best 114 figure and then he ran well for third to earn a 107 figure around one turn, so stretching out to nine furlongs, the distance of three of his seven career wins, bodes well for his chances here.

    I’m taking a stand against Pletcher’s Bonus Points, winner of last months’ John B. Campbell, as he got a 46.6 and 110.6 pace set up he will not see today, negating his late run.

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Unbridled Juan to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

    Cordmaker to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Exactas: Box Twisted Tom, Unbridled Juan and Cordmaker.

    Pick 3:

    Race 5 - Twisted Tom, Unbridled Juan and Cordmaker.

    Race 6 – Bobby G and Dynamax Prime.

    Race 7 – Las Setas.

    Also consider using “ALL” in race 6, since we are singling in race 7, taking advantage of a potentially wide open race.

    Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 3:42 PM Eastern

    In a very intriguing starter allowance race sandwiched in between two stakes, Bobby G and Dynamax Prime both get preference as win contenders at very nice odds, but this is a race in which many have a shot. Bobby G won handily by five and one-half lengths two weeks ago, first off the claim by Corrales, after a 13 length win in the race claimed out of. Both came over the track and now McCarthy gets on with the gelding bred to run all day (by Awesome Again out of a Malibu Moon mare) so there’s little concern about the 10 furlong trip all are trying for the first time. The 97 figure was a career best and the gelding should continue in top form. Dynamax Prime runs first off the claim by Gonzalez, for a very sharp owner in Robert Bone. The gelding was NOT qualified for this level until dropped by his previous trainer into a $12,500 claiming race one before last, which he won by a nose, and when he remained at the level his current connections likely saw the opportunity to run in these starter races with an exceptionally high purse ($65K, $39K to the winner). Gonzalez wins 25% off the claim and Carrasco, who gets on, is the #1 winning jockey for the barn (30% wins on 100 races in the past 15 months) so all signs are “GO” for another big effort, with his nose win one before last earning the same 97 figure as Bobby G earned in his win over the track two weeks ago.

    Bets:

    Win bets: Bobby G and Dynamax Prime to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Exactas: Bobby G and Dynamax Prime over all except Don’t Poke the Cat & Kopper Wired.

    Play the reverse of that exacta as well, even if for $1, as it could pay very well and we win twice if they Bobby G and Dynamax Prime run one-two.

    Pick 3:

    Race 6 – Bobby G and Dynamax Prime.

    Race 7 – Las Setas.

    Race 8 – Always Mining and Joevia.

    Pick 3:

    Race 6 – ALL (except Don’t Poke the Cat & Kopper Wired).

    Race 7 – Las Setas.

    Race 8 – Always Mining and Joevia.

    Beyond the Wire Stakes - Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

    If we are live in the pick 3’s there is no reason to play but if not, Las Setas is a standout and playable to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more. In this eight horse field, Las Setas is the “Lone Front Runner” just as she was last month when winning the nearly identical Wide Country Stakes and when breaking her maiden in wire-to-wire fashion one month earlier. She earned a field high 92 Equibase figure for that effort, her second strong improvement off her maiden debut in December, and she should continue to improve.

    Bets:

    Win bets: Las Setas to win at 9 to 5 or more.

    Private Terms Stakes - Race 8 at Laurel- Post Time 4:43 PM Eastern

    Alwaysmining is a fairly legitimate favorite but opens at 4 to 5. Hopefully we will be live for a decent profit (at least more than what the same amount to win would pay) in the pick 3. Joevia is the only other horse that can win in my opinion and opens at decent 7 to 2 odds. Alwaysmining has run 10 times, winning five, while Joevia has only run twice,, hence the latter opening at higher odds although his last effort, when beaten a neck in the Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, earned a nearly identical Equibase figure (98) to the 99 figure Alwaysmining earned winning the Miracle Wood Stakes last month at Laurel. Neither horse has EVER run two-turns until today and with Joevia having excellent upside in his third career start, coming out of a KEY race from which the winner (Haikal) came back from to win the Gotham last weekend, I’m really hoping he posts the mild upset to win.

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Joevia to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

    Exacta: Box Joevia and Alwaysmining.

    Inside Information Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream - Post Time 5:37 PM Eastern

    Jala Jala proved her stakes win against Caribbean horses on 12/8 to be no fluke when 2nd of 7 last month in the Royal Delta Stakes at a mile and the cut back to seven furlongs helps her chances of continuing to improve in her 3rd U.S. start. She beat Tequilita by a neck for 2nd but opens at 6 to 1 compared to 5 to 2 for that one, and the 105 figure is on par with Cairenn’s stakes winning figure, Pink Sand’s stakes winning figure and with only Teresa Z’s figure from November higher. Jaramillo rides back and Jala Jala has a sharp work since raced so could run well enough to win. Pink Sands ran well in a one turn mile over the track last month in an allowance race, earning a stakes quality 107 figure, her 2nd win in a row, and is ready for stakes company for the hot McGaughey barn (12 for 51 at the meeting). There are no real knocks except likely low odds on Cairenn, Tequilita and Teresa Z.

     

    Bets:

    Win bets: Jala Jala and Pink Sands at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

    Exactas: Box Jala Jala, Pink Sands and Cairenn.

    Box Jala Jala, Pink Sands and Tequilita.

    Box Jala Jala, Pink Sands and Teresa Z.

    Rebel Stakes:

    Although not available on Amwager, the Rebel Stakes is interesting and it is the Equibase weekly feature race.

    Here are the win contenders in the two divisions:

    Race 8:

    Galilean

    Long Range Toddy

    Improbable

    Race 10:

    Omaha Beach

    Our Braintrust

    Game Winner

    Read more...
  • 08
    MAR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, March 9

    Challenger Stakes - Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern

    Killybegs Captain is drawn outside Flameaway, the 3/2 morning line favorite who is a need-the-lead type, but inside Jay's Way, who also is a need-the-lead type. However, Killybegs Captain is stretching out off a sprint while the other two have been running in routes for some time and that means Flameaway and Jay's Way have LITTLE, if ANY, chance of having the early lead if Camacho decides to let Killybegs Captain run even a little bit from the gate to the first turn. If Flameaway and Jose Ortiz want the lead, Camacho can sit in 2nd as the horse closed from 3rd to win last fall as well as last winter. Either way, considering Killybegs Captain comes out of two big efforts over the track (both wins) with 109 and 100 Equibase figures, compared to Flameaway, who ONLY earned an 84 figure in his comeback from six months off last month and who faded badly after leading through an opening 50 second half mile, Killybegs Captain can beat the favorite. As for Jay's Way, he either ran evenly or lost ground in the stretch in his last five dirt routes, something even Irad Ortiz, Jr. may be unable to change, particularly as the horse has proven to be capable of winning ONLY when on the lead. Opening at 9/2, Killybegs Captain has all the makings of a KEY WIN BET on the day.

     

    Bourbon Resolution and Longden both warrant consideration, opening at 8/1 and 10/1, particularly if Flameaway runs like he has in a number of races, insisting on the early lead at any cost, and Jay's Way runs similarly, but if Killybegs Captain either doesn't fire or gets involved in a silly speed duel. Bourbon Resolution came back from seven months off last month with a big sixth to first rally at a mile and a career best 103 Equibase figure likely to be improved upon. He won at nine furlongs before the rest and has a lot of talent. Longden closed from last of 10 to miss by a neck on grass last month but two before that won on the Tampa main track at this distance with a rally from sixth, even after stumbling at the start. He's talented as well and if able to run as well on dirt as on grass last out when earning a 103 figure he could post the upset.

     

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Killybegs Captain to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

    For only a slightly smaller amount, Bourbon Resolution and Longden to win at 3 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

     

    Exactas: Box Killybegs Captain, Bourbon Resolution and Longden.

    Killybegs Captain, Bourbon Resolution and Longden over ALL.

     

    Pick 4:

    Race 8- Killybegs Captain, Bourbon Resolution and Longden.

    Race 9- Hawksmoor, Viva Vegas, Rymska, Onthemoonagain and Goodyearforroses.

    Race 10- La Feve, Mega Fortune, Winter Sunset, Elsa and Winning Envelope.
    Race 11- Win Win Win

    The cost of the ticket if all horses run is $37.50

     

    NOTE: If you want to use ALL six horses in the first leg, instead of just the three above, I'm okay with that and the cost of the ticket becomes $75.

     

    Hillsborough Stakes - Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern

    Goodyearforroses, Viva Vegas and Hawksmoor finished fourth, second and first, respectively, in the nearly identical Endeavour Stakes over the course last month, and I'll try to reverse that order here although all three can win. Goodyearforroses, who opens at 8/1, was 6 to 1 at post time for the Endeavour in spite of having been away from the races for 15 months. That's 15 months without a race, attempting to run two turns in a graded 3 stakes, and that's a very tough question to ask any horse. She ran very well in spite of that, moving up from ninth of 10 early to be beaten 3 lengths at the wire, and has a ton of improving to do. Goodyearforroses has as much class as Hawksmoor (who finished second in a pair of grade 1 stakes in the fall of 2017) as she won the Grade 2 Santa Ana Stakes (at the distance of the Hillsborough) in 2017 and finished second in the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes (115 figure), and she's going to improve a lot 2nd off the lengthy layoff and off the 104 figure effort earned last month.

     

    Viva Vegas rallied from 9th to be beaten a half-length by Hawksmoor last month, her 2nd start off a layoff since last fall. She earned a career best 107 figure in that effort and gets a four pound break in the weights, as she was carrying two more pounds than Hawksmoor then and is carrying two pounds less today. I'm not a huge believer in weight, but if a horse was beaten a half-length one day and has four less pounds next time out than the horse which beat her, those results could be reversed.

     

    Hawksmoor has earned over $1 million in a nice career including the win last month off a three and one-half month layoff. She's won back-to-back before and can do so again, but I wouldn't expect her odds to be anywhere near her morning line of 3 to 1 considering she was sent off as the 7 to 5 favorite in that last race.

     

    The Chad Brown trained pair of Onthemoonagain and Rymska will be used on all pick 3, pick 4 and double tickets played, but for exactas I'm going to try to split them on exacta tickets below which key on the three main win contenders. Onthemoonagain led late and finished 2nd to tougher in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl when last seen but that was five months ago, while Rymska was second last month in the similar Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes after two months off.

     

    Bets:

    Win bets: Goodyearforroses and Viva Vegas to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

     

    Exactas: Goodyearforroses, Viva Vegas and Hawksmoor over Goodyearforroses, Viva Vegas, Hawksmoor, Rymska and Onthemoonagain.

     

    Goodyearforroses, Viva Vegas, Hawksmoor, Rymska and Onthemoonagain over Goodyearforroses, Viva Vegas and Hawksmoor.

     

    If you didn't play the pick 4 starting in race 8, or if none of the contenders won, you can start a pick 3 here:

    Race 9- Hawksmoor, Viva Vegas, Rymska, Onthemoonagain and Goodyearforroses.

    Race 10- La Feve, Mega Fortune, Winter Sunset, Elsa and Winning Envelope.
    Race 11- Win Win Win

     

    Florida Oaks - Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:50 PM Eastern

    Mega Fortune not only took to turf like a duck takes to water last month when trying turf for the first time, she was also trying two-turns for the first time and adding blinkers. Those are the reasons she won at 40 to 1 after two poor dirt sprints and the win was not a fluke as she's come back to work a very strong half-mile on the turf at Palm Meadows in 47.6 around the cones, which was still the second best of 52 workouts at the distance on the day. She won from the 10 post but gets the two post here and the 90 Equibase figure is the best last race winning figure in the field and the second best last race figure in the field behind Concrete Rose, who earned hers last fall.

     

    Winning Envelope did the same thing Mega Fortune did one race before last, which was last fall, winning off two sprints in her turf and two-turn debut. She drew off nicely by almost five lengths, in an allowance race then was given more than four months off to rest and mature. Her comeback, on dirt last month in the Suncoast Stakes, was horrible, but it's meaningless as she moves back to grass.

     

    Elsa won the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes on the grass at Del Mar in November then two and one-half months later was sent to post as the 2 to 5 favorite in the Shantel Lanerie Memorial Stakes, ending up 2nd and beaten a length and one-half by Winter Sunset. She was three wide into the first turn and 5 to 6 wide into the far turn and still ran huge, so with Bravo back aboard, up for the Durante win but not last out, she could return to stakes winning form.

     

    La Feve and Winter Sunset will be used on pick 3, pick 4 and double tickets played.

     

    Bets:

    Win bets: Mega Fortune and Winning Envelope to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Consider an additional win bet, on Elsa, if she is 3 to 1 or more near post time (which I doubt she will be).

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

     

    Optional doubles:

    Mega Fortune, Winning Envelope, Elsa, La Feve and Winter Sunset in Race 10 with Win Win Win in race 11.

     

    Tampa Bay Derby - Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

    Win Win Win tries two turns for the first time off a strong win in the Pasco Stakes over the track in January at the distance of seven furlongs. Neither the additional turn nor the added distance should be an issue for the son of Hat Trick, whose sire was 1989 Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence. Showing maturity since rallying from second in the early stages to win in his debut last November, Win Win Win has steadily improved. He won his second career start by more than six lengths with a 99 Equibase Speed Figure then improved to 104 when second in the Helft Stakes at the end of December, before a career-best and field high 113 figure in the Pasco. In the Pasco, Win Win Win pulled the jockey to the lead on the turn as he easily went by three horses and was in front by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go before continuing to extend the margin and win by seven and one-quarter lengths at the wire. 2018 Eclipse winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes off an entire day at Gulfstream Park to ride Win Win Win for the first time as it is likely he and his agent sense the potential for this colt to go all the way to Louisville. With a very strong workout over the track coming into the race which was the best of 75 on the day for the distance of a half-mile proving a strong indication of fitness, Win Win Win appears capable of dominating in this year's Tampa Bay Derby just as he did in the Pasco.

     

    Well Defined won the Sam F. Davis stakes last month, the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby, and did so rather easily by nearly three lengths. As a two-year-old, Well Defined won the In Reality Stakes for horses bred in Florida and earned a very strong 111 figure, at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby. Following that big win, Well Defined went off form, finishing 12th, then fifth, but as Well Defined returned to top form with a 97 figure effort in the Sam F. Davis, and with possible improvement in his third start following a layoff, he should be respected as a contender to win the race.

     

    Dream Maker won at the short distance of five and one-half furlongs in his debut last June then was out of action for three months. When he returned, he was entered in the Hopeful Stakes in New York and could only manage a fifth of eight finish. Trying two turns last fall in the Breeders' Futurity, Dream Maker ended up 12th of 13 in another disappointing effort, this one as the betting favorite. However, given four months off to grow up and to get over whatever issues resulted in those two poor efforts, Dream Maker not only returned to the races with aplomb, he did so around two turns without a sprint prep. In that race last month, Dream Maker made a quick move on the turn to go from third to four and one-half lengths in front of the next horse by the time the field reached the eighth pole, then was "ridden out" to an eight and one-half length win. Although the effort earned a 95 figure which is much lower than the 111 Well Defined earned in his best effort and the 113 Win Win Win earned in the Pasco, Dream Maker has potential to take a big step forward, particularly as he was flattered when the runner-up from his last race won and improved by six points.

     

    Bets:

    Win Bets: Win Win Win to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.

     

    Trifectas: Win Win Win over Dream Maker and Well Defined over ALL.

    Win Win Win over ALL over Dream Maker and Well Defined.

    Read more...
  • 01
    MAR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, March 2

    Very One Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:30 PM Eastern

    The Tulip had a decent 2018 campaign in which she earned 100K while winning a pair of races including a minor stakes in Northern California. She’s not nearly as accomplished as morning line favorite Holy Helena, who earned $300K last year, but her best effort is certainly as good as Semper Sententiae, who opens at 7/2, so her 10/1 starting odds are to be noted. She cuts back from 11 furlongs to 9 1/2 which doesn’t seem like much but she ran well twice at nine furlongs last spring before winning the minor stakes, and she ships in all the way from California (where there aren’t ample opportunities because of recurring rain), getting current Santa Anita leading jockey Joel Rosario, and giving us enough reasons to take a shot betting her to win and keying her on exacta tickets.

     

    Similarly, Lafta, who also opens at 10/1, must be noted as she won her first two starts after importing to the U.S. last summer and fall before a fifth of 14 finish in December. She earned one of those wins leading from start to finish in a little stakes over this course and in the other win she closed from fourth won going away. Leparoux rides for the first time and the mare appears to be capable of winning this pretty wide open race.

     

    Holy Helena won this race last year at 7 to 2 off an allowance win one month earlier then won in May before a six race losing streak, including as the 7 to 5 favorite in a non-graded stakes in December. She can run well but is no lock. Danceland has a couple of efforts (last June and August) which, if repeated, may have her in the picture late, as does Tricky Escape and Semper Sententiae, so we’ll use them with the pair of 10/1 shots in exactas.

     

    Win Bets: The Tulip and Lafta to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

     

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

     

    Exactas: The Tulip and Lafta over The Tulip, Lafta, Danceland, Holy Helena, Semper Sententiae and Tricky Escape.

     

    Also The Tulip, Lafta, Danceland, Holy Helena, Semper Sententiae and Tricky Escape over The Tulip and Lafta.

     

    Doubles: The Tulip and Lafta in Race 7 with ALL in Race 8

    The Tulip, Lafta, Danceland, Holy Helena, Semper Sententiae and Tricky Escape in Race 7 with Cambier Parc and Connectivity in Race 8.

     

    Herecomesthebride Stakes - Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3 PM Eastern

    Cambier Parc appears to be a legitimate favorite, with Connectivity next most probable, in this field. Both are trained by Chad Brown and both won on the Gulfstream Park turf in their most recent starts, Cambier Parc powerfully by four under Jose Ortiz (who rides back), Connectivity with a rally from ninth under Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rides back. There’s not much to do in this race unless the odds are right to for the most part that’s why the doubles started in the seventh race are the preferred way to profit from this race.

     

    Win Bets: Cambier Parc to win at odds of 3 to 2.

    Connectivity to win at odds of 5 to 2.

     

    Honey Fox Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern

    Precieuse is a standout in this race and that’s great because we can play a pretty small pick 3 and pick 4 and really spread in the last two legs. Precieuse won a significant group 1 stakes in France in the spring of 2017 as a three year old, before a poor effort in June of that year at Ascot where she may have bled. Taking a while to get acclimated to U.S. racing, she made her stateside debut last August at Saratoga in the non-graded De La Rose Stakes, rallying furiously on the turn to go from sixth to first then battling the last eighth of a mile and coming up a head short to Uni, who went on to win the Noble Damsel and Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes. The 112 Equibase figure from the De La Rose pretty much towers over these as it is, as does the quality of her competition in that race and her European races, and as she nearly won at a mile following 13 months off and considering Brown’s superb 28% win rate off long layoffs, she should win here. Although I’m hopeful her 7/2 morning line will hold up I’m not holding my breath.

     

    For second and third, a trio of horses who ran well in the recently run South Beach Stakes are noted. Dolce Lili won the race by a half-length and opens at 4 to 1, but the horse she beat by a half-length for the win, Conquest Hardcandy, opens at ridiculous 15/1 odds, as does Fire Key, who was just another half-length back. Valedictorian just won a grade 3 stakes over the track and could be part of the exotics, as could Bellavais, another recent grade 3 stakes winner over the course.

     

    Win Bets: Precieuse to win at odds of 6 to 5 or more, a true low odds overlay.

     

    Exacta: Precieuse over Valedictorian, Fire Key, Conquest Hardcandy, Bellavais and Dolce Lili.

    We can play the same ticket as a trifecta, using the same five horses in both second and third under Precieuse.

     

    Pick 4:

    Race 11 – Precieuse

    Race 12 – Jaywalk

    Race 13 – Bourbon War, Vekoma, Hidden Scroll, Global Campaign, Everfast

    Race 14 – Village King, Hunter O’Riley, Vettori Kin, Zulu Alpha, Highland Sky, Kulin Rock, Montclair, Channel Maker

     

    Pick 3 (two tickets)

    Race 11 – Precieuse

    Race 12 – Jaywalk

    Race 13 – All

     

    Pick 3

    Race 11 – Precieuse

    Race 12 – Jaywalk

    Race 13 – Bourbon War, Vekoma, Hidden Scroll, Global Campaign, Everfast

     

    Davona Dale Stakes - Race 12 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:01 PM Eastern

    Jaywalk is a standout here but opens as the odds-on favorite so the best way to profit around her winning is from Pick three and four tickets started in race 11 and started here as well, although the pick 3 started here is doubling up on the last three legs of the pick 4, unless Precieuse did not win.

     

    In lieu of a win bet, trying to turn 1 to 5 into 2 to 1, we can play an exacta of Jaywalk over Champagne Anyone and Bold Script, who I think are pretty probable to run second.

     

    Bets:

    Pick 3:

    Race 12 – Jaywalk

    Race 13 – Bourbon War, Vekoma, Hidden Scroll, Global Campaign, Everfast

    Race 14 – Village King, Hunter O’Riley, Vettori Kin, Zulu Alpha, Highland Sky, Kulin Rock, Montclair, Channel Maker

     

    Fountain of Youth Stakes - Race 13 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:32 PM Eastern

    Looking at all the factors which suggest how much some horses will improve from race to race as well as their pedigree to become one of the top three year olds this winter and spring, I've landed on Global Campaign. Not only do the chart caller's comments "wrapped up" describe his two authoritative wins in two starts to date (the most recent at the distance of the Fountain of Youth), the colt is bred to be a star. He's by Curlin, not only the sire of last year's Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes winner Good Magic but also winner of three important graded stakes (Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby and Preakness) as a three year old. Perhaps just as important, Global Campaign is out of the mare Globe Trot, who has produced two stakes winning horses to date, including one of last year's other top three year olds, Bolt d'Oro. In trying to validate whether the "wrapped up" comments did justice to how easily he won both starts to date, I watched the videos and indeed, Global Campaign was in a league of his own in the last three-eighths of a mile in both races, giving no other horse a chance. His Equibase figures of 98 then 99 are lower than other horses in the race, most notably likely favorite Hidden Scroll, but when considering how much more Global Campaign may have in the tank based on not having been asked to run hard in both races as well as based on his tremendous breeding, I expect a graded stakes-winning effort from the colt in the Fountain of Youth.

     

    Bourbon War was also pretty impressive winning at Gulfstream at the distance of the Fountain of Youth in his most recent race, boldly rallying between horses on the turn to go from fifth to first by the time the field hit the eighth pole. Drawing off under his own power, Bourbon War earned a very strong 107 figure, which might be one of the best at this time of year if not for the 115 figure Hidden Scroll earned eight days later. However, Hidden Scroll earned his big figure on a sloppy track and in a one-turn mile race and has yet to run two-turns, whereas Bourbon War has three races under his belt and is making his second start following seven weeks off, and so has lots of room to improve. 2018 Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode Bourbon War in victory in January and rides again. As a son of Tapit, who has sired many three year old graded stakes winners over the last few years, including 2016 Fountain of Youth winner Mohayman, there's little doubt Bourbon War has what it takes to perform well enough to win this race.

     

    Hidden Scroll absolutely dominated in a 13 horse field in his debut in late January. He took the lead shortly after the start and widened until geared down to a 14 length victory. The 115 figure he earned is the best figure I've ever noted a three year old earning in the first half of the year. As a son of Hard Spun, the added distance and two-turn nature of the Fountain of Youth should not pose a problem. However, Hidden Scroll has only raced once and he has never raced around two-turns as he is being asked to do in this race. Trainer Bill Mott is not known for winning with a high percentage of horses in their racing debuts, so the win by Hidden Scroll in his debut bodes well for another top effort. Additionally, Mott had good success with Hofburg last year when he entered the maiden winner to run second in the Florida Derby. As such, we should not discount the chances of Hidden Scroll dominating once again.

     

    Everfast is a horse likely coming in under the radar who must be respected, in my opinion. After winning his debut last August in a seven furlong sprint, Everfast didn't do much in five races including three stakes. However, in his second race as a three year old, Everfast finished second of nine in the Holy Bull Stakes at odds of 128 to 1. The 102 figure was decent enough compared to most of the main contenders in the Fountain of Youth and it is reasonable to project he will run better in his third start off the layoff.

     

    Notes about others: Vekoma (110 best figure winning the Nashua Stakes) and Signalman (95 best figure when third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, before winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with a 92 figure) both return from layoffs significant enough I think they are at a disadvantage to the four contenders above. According to a STATS Race Lens query I ran, trainer McPeek (Signalman) has a one-for-27 record with horses coming back in routes from this type of layoff over the last two years, while trainer Weaver (Vekoma) has a 0 for 8 record. It is certainly conceivable Signalman and Vekoma can run well and be in the top four to earn "Road to the Derby" points, but I do not believe either will win. Code of Honor was disappointing as the odds-on favorite in the Mucho Macho Man in January, his three year old debut, but must be respected off his runner-up effort in the Champagne Stakes last fall so I’ll consider him for a minor award as well.

     

    Win bets: Global Campaign and Bourbon War to win at odds of 7/2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

    Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

     

    Also consider at least a minimum win and place bet on Everfast at odds of 6 to 1 or more (considering he opens at 20/1).

     

    Exacta: Bourbon War, Hidden Scroll and Global Campaign over Bourbon War, Hidden Scroll, Global Campaign, Code of Honor, Vekoma, Signalman and Everfast.

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