Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes is more than just another early-season prep—it’s a Kentucky Derby points race, and an important one at that. The Holy Bull awards 20 points to the winner, with 8–6–4–2 to the runners-up, and while those numbers won’t punch a Derby ticket by themselves, they matter. They matter because they put horses on the board early, allow connections to map a path forward, and—just as important—separate real prospects from horses merely passing through the conversation.
For me, this is the most interesting Derby prep we’ve seen so far this year.
Not necessarily the flashiest. Not the deepest on paper. But the one with the highest ceiling of potential development. This race features colts who aren’t fully formed yet, who still have upside, and who could look very different—much better—three months from now. That’s exactly what I want to see in late January and early February.
The Race Shape: Competitive, Honest, and Revealing
On paper, the Holy Bull sets up as a competitive and honest race, with enough pace to keep things fair but not so much that it turns into a meltdown. That’s ideal. It allows the race to be decided by ability, positioning, and professionalism, not chaos.
There are a few directions you could go here, but I ultimately land on the two up-and-comers: Nearly and Beutane.
Nearly is intriguing—clearly improving, still learning, and the type who could take a meaningful step forward with the right trip. He fits the profile of a colt who could surprise some people as the distances stretch out later this spring.
But the one I lean on—the one I think checks the most boxes right now—is Beutane.
Why Beutane Gets the Nod
I land on Beutane for three primary reasons:
1. Pace Projection He fits this race tactically. He doesn’t need everything to go perfectly, and he doesn’t need to be ridden upside-down. That flexibility matters in a race like this, especially at Gulfstream, where positioning is often half the battle.
2. Experience Edge At this stage of the season, experience still counts. Beutane has been in real races, has handled pressure, and has already shown he belongs in this company. While others are still figuring things out, he’s already answered a few questions.
3. The Baffert Signal And then there’s the workout.
That 1:12 move—the patented, no-nonsense signal from Bob Baffert—is hard to ignore. When you see that kind of work from a Baffert trainee, it usually means one thing: they’re ready to rumble. Not guessing. Not experimenting. Ready.
This doesn’t mean Beutane is the finished article. Far from it. But it does mean he’s ready for this moment, and in a race built around projection and development, that’s enough for me.
Final Word
The Holy Bull won’t crown a Derby winner—but it will reveal who belongs in the conversation. That’s what makes it compelling. You’re betting on what these horses are today; you’re watching what they might become.
It’s competitive. It’s instructive. And for the first time this year, it feels like the Derby trail is genuinely underway.
With the scratch of Beutane who I presume is waiting for Oaklawn, my decision became easy. All in on Nearly who should have no issue with the added ground.