Gulfstream Saturday Stakes
Gulfstream will run both The Hutcheson and the Silks Run on Saturday. The Hutcheson will be run at 7 furlongs on the main track while the Silks Run will go 5 furlongs on the beat-up turf course if the weather holds. If not, it will go on the Tapeta over the same distance.
The Hutcheson will have a heavy in Super Chow who is even money on the morning line and could go off shorter than that at post time. I’m not sure who beats these price horses to win, but we see it all the time.
This field seems to be light for Super Chow who has been keeping stakes company and holding his own while winning three black type races against seemingly better horses than he faces Saturday. That said, we always look for a knock on these short prices and Super Chow has one. Let’s put him right in the winner’s circle by pointing it out as we all know how that goes.
Super Chow seems to bear out and go wide in the stretch. It could be a habit or a sign of an issue but either way I don’t like it and tend to think those types of things will jump up and bite you at some point. Again, this is a light field on paper so Saturday might not be that day, but at a short price I don’t want a horse with what I perceive as a problem or issue.
There are not a lot of viable alternatives is the problem. Two of a Kind was the first I considered but he does not seem like he progressed from two to three. That is a concern. Good horses usually do. Maybe he is taking time to come around as Lynch who s razor sharp doesn’t back off or look for any class relief, but you’d have to play him on the blind so to speak as unless you are Lynch you don’t know why the horse has not gone forward.
The other I look at and likely land on is Youbetterbejoking. Yes, I see the light beyer figure, but I am not a beyer believer. I prefer Thorograph and shy away from raw numbers like beyers. Either way Youbetterbejoking will have to take a nice step forward to win, but we see three-year olds do this often and George Weaver runs him here off the bench knowing the types of horses he will face. Saez rides and that
Only helps any chance he has.
In the Silks Run there are plenty of option. Big Invasion looks legit coming back as a four-year old and drawn outside for a perfect trip from just off the pace which figures to be hot. Carotari and Belgrano both fit but I will take a bit of a stab with Lucky Score.
This five-year old gelding still has some upside and might just wind up preferring the grass to synthetic even though his record to date doesn’t read that way. He will be running late into what I think will be a fast pace under Tyler and first time Mark Casse. He will have to make up a lot of ground over a course and at a distance that do not really play that way, but the price and conditions could be right to set him up. If he goes forward for Casse as I suspect he may, he can be a serious threat in here.
Enjoy the races!