Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 26th, 2023
H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes – Race 9 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
In a six horse field, albeit a good one, I’m going to start with only one pick, and that is New York Thunder, who opens at 5 to 2 and may stay in that range given Baffert’s Arabian Lion will be lower odds than his 2/1 morning line, and similarly Fort Bragg (also trained by Baffert) will be lower than his 5 to 2 morning line considering he was the 3 to 5 favorite when winning the Dryer Stakes last month. Neither of those two, nor the other three, are faster in the early stages than New York Thunder, who won the local prep for this race, the Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes, four weeks ago at the similar distance of six and one-half furlongs. This seven furlong trip should be no problem and I expect a repeat effort for this colt who has the top pace figures in the field and whose last race Equibase Speed Figure of 108 is only bettered by the 115 Arabian Lion earned winning the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes at this distance on Belmont Stakes day in June. Having the benefit of a race over the track is a big advantage in my opinion, and now making his second start at the meet and second off a three month layoff, New York Thunder is the one to catch and to beat.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Minimum odds for a win bet on New York Thunder will be 3 to 2
Doubles:
Race 9: New York Thunder
Race 10: ALL
Race 9: ALL
Race 10: Caramel Swirl
Pick 3’s:
Race 9: New York Thunder
Race 10: ALL
Race 11: Soldier Rising, Verstappen, Channel Maker
Race 9: ALL
Race 10: Caramel Swirl
Race 11: Soldier Rising, Verstappen, Channel Maker
Note: The reason for TWO pick 3 and double tickets is to maximize profit using Caramel Swirl (10/1 starting odds) as a single (the only horse being used) on one of each pair of tickets.
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Ballerina Handicap – Race 10 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
This race drew a tremendous field, led by Echo Zulu and Goodnight Olive but the contention doesn’t end there as Matareya, Wicked Halo, Dr B and Caramel Swirl have ALL been competitive in the Filly & Mare Sprint Division over the last year. For pick 3 tickets and double tickets (like some of those started in race 9), the “ALL” button can and should be used as neither of the favorites (Echo Zulu and Goodnight Olive) are locks.
As for the horse I’m most interested in betting to win, and in keying on exacta tickets, that’s going to be Caramel Swirl, opening at 10/1. She was the 2 to 1 favorite when winning the Vagrancy Stakes in May at Belmont and she was 3 to 1 when winning the Raven Run Stakes last fall, at this seven furlong trip, that effort and race being the most representative of today’s conditions. In the Bed O’ Roses Stakes at this distance on June 17, her most recent start, Caramel Swirl rallied to make the lead perhaps a bit too early, before being passed by Goodnight Olive and Wicked Halo. If Alvarado rides her as he did in the Vagrancy, when she went from sixth early to third on the turn then made the last move, or in the Raven Run, where she rallied from seventh early, to third on the turn, then made the last run, she can post the upset. She’s certainly in tip-top shape, with a very strong best of 56 half-mile drill on August 6, and she’s capable of beating the best in this field on her best day as her Raven Run Equibase Figure was 111, the same as Echo Zulu’s best from the Honorable Miss in her most recent race, and better than the 107 best Goodnight Olive earned in her most recent win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Caramel Swirl at odds of 3 to 1 or more
Exactas: Box Caramel Swirl – Echo Zulu, Box Caramel Swirl – Goodnight Olive
Also for the minimum $1 I am going to box Caramel Swirl with ALL
Pick 3s:
Race 10: Caramel Swirl, Echo Zulu, Goodnight Olive
Race 11: Soldier Rising, Verstappen, Channel Maker
Race 12: Forte, Arcangelo, Mage, Scotland
Race 10: ALL
Race 11: Soldier Rising, Verstappen, Channel Maker
Race 12: Scotland
Race 10: Caramel Swirl
Race 11: Soldier Rising, Verstappen, Channel Maker
Race 12: ALL
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Sword Dancer Stakes – Race 11 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:31 PM Eastern
Analysis and main contenders:
Soldier Rising can win by repeating his effort 13 months ago in a listed stakes at Belmont at this trip where he stalked pacesetter Channel Maker, made the lead late, and came up a neck short on the wire. He ran third with a big effort after being last of 10 two months later in the 2022 Sword Dancer, and he finished second in both the Grade 1 Man O’War and Grade 1 Manhattan earlier this year. He lost all chance when Rebel Romance fell in front of him in the Bowling Green Stakes last month, forcing him to check out of the race, and it is significant to note Jose Ortiz, who has been aboard for all but one of his last nine races, gets off Pioneering Spirit, who Jose has ridden to FOUR straight wins, to ride Soldier rising.
Channel Maker is likely to get an easy lead as he did in the Bowling Green but he’s won from off the pace as well. The nine year old still loves to run and was second in this race in 2018 after winning the Bowling Green that year, as well as won this race in 2020, with Franco up the same as for his last race and today.
Verstappen won the very similar Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland this spring for a career-best effort, beating multiple graded stakes winner Red Knight by a head. In the Bowling Green he moved up from fourth to second but was no match for Channel Maker, who had an easy lead from the start. Opening at 8 to 1, Verstappen has an upset chance to win but perhaps more importantly a very high probability to be second or third as he’s only been off the board once in his last six starts.
As for the 6 to 5 starting favorite Stone Age, I feel the only way to profit in this race is to beat him and I have no issue taking a stand against him as he’s not a standout anyway. His record of 2-4-2 in 15 races isn’t much and although he has run in some of the top grade 1 or group 1 races in the U.S. and Europe going back to last June, he’s only been competitive twice. Those were in two of his three U.S. starts, when third in the Belmont Derby in July of 2022 and then when second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last fall, BUT he was not favored in either and actually was 12 to 1 in the Breeders’ Cup. He finished fifth of 10 in the Hong Kong Vase Stakes in December at 6 to 5 with no excuse and his only start of this year, six months ago, was a last of 12 finish in Qatar. He’s in the Chad Brown barn now and is expected to be something special but I just don’t see him winning here.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Soldier Rising and Verstappen can be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 or more. Channel Maker has the same fair odds but may be bet lower. Just the same if Stone Age is bet as heavily as his morning line suggests there may be opportunity to “Dutch” all three horses to win. (See below).
IF we do end up considering win bets on more than one horse, this is a great race to take advantage of the mathematical edge provided by a “Dutching” tool, which prorates wagers for the best value. There’s a free dutching tool at Amwager.com, where you can set the amount you want to bet in total and the math is done for you to help achieve the best edge. This is just one of many tools, and perks, for bettors at Amwager.com
Exactas: Box Soldier Rising, Channel Maker, Verstappen
Trifecta: Soldier Rising, Channel Maker, Verstappen over ALL over Soldier Rising, Channel Maker, Verstappen
(Between these two bets we win if any two of the three contenders finish first and second or first and third. We win both bets if all three finish in the top three positions).
For my analysis of the Travers Stakes, go to Equibase here.
