Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 12th, 2022

Smart Halo Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 2:41 PM Eastern

Analysis & Top win contenders:
Dissolute appears to be the speed of the speed and from the outside can clear any other horse and jockey who might consider trying to get to the front. That’s just what this talented two year old filly did in her one and only start, four weeks ago, as she was ahead by three lengths shortly after the start and coasted home with a field high 87 Equibase Speed Figure she’s likely to improve upon in her second start. She put in a swift half-mile workout which was the best of 34 on the day since raced and has a fine shot to play “come catch me” here.

If Dissolute doesn’t hang on, the two most likely to get up in time and win are Twice as Sweet and Bound by Destiny. Twice as Sweet was no match for six length winner Key of Life last month at Keeneland, and that one came back to win the Myrtlewood Stakes two weeks later. Twice as Sweet rallied from off the pace to win prior to that and is on an improving pattern with a last out 86 figure as good as the 87 figure Dissolute earned. She too is expected to continue to improve and would be no surprise.

Bound by Destiny is undefeated in four races, with two wins leading from start to finish and the other two from off the pace. Her only knock is she debuted in a maiden claiming race and two of her other three wins came in restricted stakes but she did beat open company in an allowance race in her second start. She improved nicely through her third start with that earning her a 95 figure which beats these if Dissolute and Twice as Sweet don’t improve but even though winning last time out she regressed to 70, which is a bit disappointing. Still, she’s undefeated and although possibly overbet so not as good of a win bet as the other two contenders must be used on double and pick 3 tickets.

Bets:
Win: Minimum odds for considering win bets on either/both Dissolute and Twice as Sweet are 9 to 5.

Note: I’d likely bet just Dissolute if at or above that threshold but I can see betting both for a small profit, and if I did I’d “Dutch” the bet using the Amwager tool to prorate my wagers for the optimal profit. With this tool I can set the amount I want to bet or the amount I want to win and based on the odds my bet is made accordingly. That’s just one or many tools and perks at Amwager.com.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Minimum odds for considering win bets on either/both Dissolute and Twice as Sweet are 9 to 5.

Note: I’d likely bet just Dissolute if at or above that threshold but I can see betting both for a small profit, and if I did I’d “Dutch” the bet using the Amwager tool to prorate my wagers for the optimal profit. With this tool I can set the amount I want to bet or the amount I want to win and based on the odds my bet is made accordingly. That’s just one or many tools and perks at Amwager.com.

Exacta: Box Bound by Destiny, Twice as Sweet, Dissolute

Double:
Race 7: Bound by Destiny, Twice as Sweet, Dissolute
Race 8: Riccio

Pick 3:
Race 7: Bound by Destiny, Twice as Sweet, Dissolute
Race 8: Riccio
Race 9: Malibu Beauty, Berate, Beguine, Baby Man, Hybrid Eclipse

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James F. Lewis III Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel – Post Time 3:18 PM Eastern

Analysis and main contender:
If there was only one, two or even three need-the-lead types in the race, one of them could shake clear, and that one might be 6 to 5 morning line favorite Recruiter, who has wired the field in two races. BUT that’s not the case, as Heldish gets the rail and earned his only win leading from start to finish, Coffeewithchris adds blinkers, Tiz No Clown earned both wins leading from start to finish, as did Where Is Mike and Honeyquist. Maybe Recruiter is faster, and maybe he, or one of the others, can rate off the pace, but based on ALL of their history I don’t think that’s going to work out well and so Riccio is a single on double and pick three tickets and the horse I’m likely to bet to win, opening at 7 to 2. He shortens up from a two-turn mile to one turn and the way he ran in his two best races, when winning on 7/18 and when second in a stakes on 9/1 suggest he can pass the tiring pacesetters and pressers and win.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Riccio at 2 to 1 or more.

Doubles:
Race 8: Riccio
Race 9: Malibu Beauty, Berate, Beguine, Baby Man, Hybrid Eclipse

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Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes – Race 9 at Laurel – Post Time 3:49 PM Eastern

Top win contenders:
This is the most wide open race in the sequence and I think if both Malibu Beauty (on the rail) and Baby Man both run, both being absolute need-the-lead types, it sets the race up for any one of a number of horses. The main group which can benefit is Berate and Beguine. Malibu Beauty might be the speed of the speed and must be considered for exactas and multiple race bets but opening as the 5 to 2 favorite isn’t a good win bet. Baby Man also may be interesting for exactas and multiple race bets. The last of the group which could get a piece is Hybrid Eclipse, who could sit off the pace but who has also shown a keen interest in being first or second early and that may not help her chances to win here.

Berate just won a salty allowance race at Churchill Downs by sitting in third for the first seven furlongs then moving three wide and drawing off late. That was a career-best effort with a field high last race Equibase figure of 94 and if she repeats the race she can win here, at a square price as she opens at 9 to 2.

Beguine has shown the ability to win on the lead, as she did when stretched out for the first time in March, and she’s demonstrated the ability to come from off the pace as when missing by a neck on the wire in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn this past April. She ran poorly in the Black Eyed Susan then took nearly five months off. Her comeback was once again in a very tough field, running seven furlongs at Keeneland last month, where she pressed the pace and tired. However, she’s moved to a new barn since, gets a big jockey change to Toledo, and has put in two nice local workouts so on the stretch out she could be close to any of the three potential pacesetters and if she runs as she did in the Fantasy she can win.

 

Handicapper Picks

Win: Consider win bets on either or both Berate and Beguine at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

The BEST way to maximize profit when wagering to win on multiple horses is to use a “Dutching” tool, which allocates wagers based on the odds. Amwager.com has a great and easy to use dutching tool which allows you to set the amount of money you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, then does the math for you. It’s just one of many great tools, and perks, available at Amwager.com

Exactas:
Berate, Beguine over Berate, Beguine, Malibu Beauty, Baby Man and Hybrid Eclipse
Then also the opposite, which is Berate, Beguine, Malibu Beauty, Baby Man and Hybrid Eclipse over Berate, Beguine

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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