Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 1st, 2022

Santa Anita Sprint Championship – Race 6 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:08 PM Eastern/3:08 Pacific

Trainer Sanchez sends out an uncoupled entry consisting of Super Ocho (10/1 morning line) and Todo Fino (4/1 morning line) and those are the two to beat by far. If the race goes as drawn, favorite Forbidden Kingdom, a need-the-lead type, will have his hands full with Kid Corleone, having the same style, with the opening half potentially going in :44 flat, making them both vulnerable late. Berrios rode both to wins recently, and chooses Super Ocho, so he gets slight preference on that count as well as the higher odds for not good reason because if he repeats his U.S. debut in June when he won by 10 with a 106 Equibase Speed Figure HIGHER than any other horse’s figure this year and even last year, he can win. Berrios switched his tack from Florida earlier this year and has a long relationship with Sanchez as they have won 30 of 120 races together the past 21 months. Rispoli gets on Todo Fino so there’s no issue there for this horse which won his U.S. debut on 9/3 at Del Mar very gamely with a 96 figure he can improve upon a lot in his second start off a five month layoff. He won 10 of 14 in Chile and dominated in many of those races, and the race he won on 9/3 has become a KEY race since, with the ONLY three horse which have run back, the 3rd, 6th and 7th finishers in that race, having won their next starts.

Handicapper Picks

Win: We should be both Super Ocho and Todo Fino at odds of 2 to 1 or more

When betting on two (or more) horses to win, we should always try to “DUTCH” the bet, which means to prorate our total wagers among the two horses based on the odds. Amwager.com has a free and easy to use Dutching Tool available where you can set the amount you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available to the bettor at Amwager.com

Exacta: Box Super Ocho and Todo Fino

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Eddie D. Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:38 PM Eastern/ 3:38 Pacific

Sanchez and Berrios team up again with another horse who won strongly at Del Mar, Dubai Key, victorious on 8/5 in a five furlong turf sprint in powerful fashion with a field high 109 Equibase Figure. He won that race from the six post in a field of seven, then one month later in the Green Flash Handicap, he got the rail, not the place for him, and went way too fast early before tiring a bit late to fourth. He had won three in a row since importing to the U.S. and since the Green Flash put in a pretty spectacular half-mile work which was the third best of 97 on the day, so he has every right to perk back up to the form of that 8/5 effort, more than good enough to win.

That being said, Air Force Red is the one Dubai Key is likely to be sitting second behind early as he will go from the inside, having won back-to-back at this downhill turf trip in April and June when leading from start to finish, the second of those wins coming from the two post he gets today. Espinoza rode him just once before, to the first of those two wins, and gets back on after three races with other jockeys. He ran decently enough in the tougher, and longer, Del Mar Mile last month, opening up to lead by four lengths at the seven furlong mark before tiring to fourth, so cutting back to six and one-half furlongs and back at the distance he’s 2 for 2 at (down the hill) he must be respected strongly as a contender.

Gregorian Chant also cuts back from a mile, having finished fast to miss winning by three-quarters of a length in the Wickerr Stakes on opening weekend at Del Mar near the end of July. He has been rested since, and won in March down this hillside course off a six month layoff so we know he can fire fresh. He won three in a row from January through March of 2021 all on the course, one of those coming in the similar San Simeon Stakes, and he put in a pair of tremendous workouts coming into the race so we know he’s in tip-top condition, his only knock being he opens as the 5 to 2 favorite.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Dubai Key and Air Force Red should be considered for win bets at 5 to 2 odds or more.

 

This is absolutely another race in which we can maximize our profit using a dutching tool like the one which is free (and easy to use) at Amwager.com

Gregorian Chant has the same minimum odds but is unlikely to offer the value either of the other two do, but should absolutely be used on exacta, double and other multi-race wagers we make involving this race.

 

Exactas:

Box Air Force Red, Gregorian Chant and Dubai Key

 

Air Force Red, Gregorian Chant and Dubai Key over Air Force Red, Gregorian Chant, Dubai Key, Lane Way, Coulthard and Barristan the Bold

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Unzip Me Stakes – Race 9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:38 PM Eastern/ 4:38 Pacific

Brandon’smylawyer, Connie Swingle and Pammy’s Ready are the three win contenders, with the first two having a bit more probability than the other, but with Pammy’s Ready’s 10/1 starting odds making it so we should consider her as well.

Brandon’smylawyer just won a turf sprint with a career-best effort and a field high 103 Equibase figure. She beat older and is facing just three year olds only here and she is a perfect three-for-three sprinting on turf yet opens at 8 to 1. Gutierrez has been aboard for the last two wins, with the one on May 29 coming at this downhill turf trip and she has won on the lead, while stalking in second early and when mid-pack in fourth of eight in the early stages as well so I am not concerned about the rail draw.

Connie Swingle opens as the 3 to 1 favorite mostly because she’s a stakes winner, with a very strong 5-2-1 overall record in eight races. Two of her wins came down the hill, in May and June, the best of the two earning a 90 figure inferior to Brandon’smylawer’s last effort, but Connie Swingle did earn a 97 career-best figure last out at six furlongs at Del Mar and so with any improvement could earn her sixth win in her ninth career start.

Pammy’s Ready may have a 2-3-2 record in 11 races but only four of those were turf sprints on this circuit and three of those were strong efforts, particularly last out on 8/19 when second to Brandon’smylawyer in that highly rated allowance race. She has a nice late kick and her 10/1 odds are too high to ignore.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Brandon’smylawyer at 3 to 1 or more and Pammy’s Ready at 4 to 1 or more.
Connie Swingle has the same minimum odds of 3 to 1 as Brandon’smylawyer but opens at 3 to 1 compared to 8 to 1 and is likely not nearly as good a win bet but I would consider her if 3 to 1 or more.

This is another example of a race where using a dutching tool to prorate our wagers based on the odds will come in very handy.

Exactas: Note- when referring to “units” below it is whatever you usual betting amount is, for example $2.

(Two Units) Brandon’smylawyer, Connie Swingle and Pammy’s Ready over Brandon’smylawyer, Connie Swingle, Pammy’s Ready, Delmona, Lexington Humor and Briefcase Girl

(One Unit – half as much as the above exacta) Brandon’smylawyer, Connie Swingle, Pammy’s Ready, Delmona, Lexington Humor and Briefcase Girl over Brandon’smylawyer, Connie Swingle and Pammy’s Ready

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Ellis Starr

Ellis is a well respected handicapper and contributor of AmWager. He has been a public handicapper for more than twenty years, educating racing fans of all skill levels with detailed commentary few other handicappers provide.

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