Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 10, 2022
Fanduel Turf Sprint Stakes – Race 9 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern/4:10 Central
This is the first of three straight fantastic races, each with a $1 million purse, this one a “Win & You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint to boot. The top two contenders to win in terms of probability are Totally Boss and Arrest Me Red, with six other horses to consider for exactas as well as some pick 3 and 4 tickets as their odds are likely to be way too high to ignore.
Totally Boss is the first to look at as he opens at 12 to 1 compared to 9 to 5 for Arrest Me Red, who should be low odds but not that low in this 12 horse field. Totally Boss won THIS RACE last year at odds of 9 to 2 and considering he nearly won his most recent race (on August 7) he has every right to run as well as he did last year. Prior to winning this race last year Totally Boss won the prep at Ellis Park five weeks earlier and this year he rallied from eighth to be beaten two necks and a nose on the wire in that same prep. Jockey Florent Geroux rode the horse to those two wins last year, rode him again in May of this year following 11 months off, to win, and gets BACK ON after not riding in the race last month. Considering the jockey is three for five when aboard Totally Boss, I’d say he knows exactly what to do to get a top effort good enough to win and that could make us some nice profit here.
Arrest Me Red has a strong six for nine record on grass including a win in the similar Turf Sprint Stakes on Kentucky Derby day in May. He also won the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational last October at this distance on grass, both with North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. The colt has no knocks and has every right to run well enough to win, but at low odds he may not be a good win bet relative to others, but can be used as an exacta key to try to get more value from him winning.
Chewing Gum, Arzak, Bob’s Edge, Gregorian Chant, Bran and Front Run the Fed appear just a cut below the top two but with some of them likely to go to post at 15 to 1 or more there is no reason to disregard them when considering some wagers in this race. Note also that Johnny Unleashed and Artemus Citylimits (on the also-eligible list) are strong “early” pace types, but if one of them does not run the other can also be used on exacta tickets.
Win: Totally Boss at 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Totally Boss and Arrest Me Red over Totally Boss, Arrest Me Red, Chewing Gum, Arzak, Bob’s Edge, Gregorian Chant, Bran and Front Run the Fed. (Add either Johnny Unleashed or Artemus Citylimits if only one of the pair runs)
We should also consider playing the opposite of the above, which is Totally Boss, Arrest Me Red, Chewing Gum, Arzak, Bob’s Edge, Gregorian Chant, Bran and Front Run the Fed (Add either Johnny Unleashed or Artemus Citylimits if only one of the pair runs) over Totally Boss and Arrest Me Red.
This way, we win both bets if the two contenders finish 1st and 2nd.
Considering Arrest Me Red will go to post at much lower odds as compared to Totally Boss, the exacta KEY is a concept to help make more money than betting him to win:
Arrest Me Red over Totally Boss, Chewing Gum, Arzak, Bob’s Edge, Gregorian Chant, Bran and Front Run the Fed, Johnny Unleashed and Artemus Citylimits.
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Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes – Race 10 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern/4:45 Central
In the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes, three trainers who have entrants in this race have dominated by having their charges ready for this mile and one-half test. Mike Maker leads the group with four wins, with Brad Cox having won twice (both with Arklow) and Chris Block having won twice. The other two to win this race in the last 10 years are Paulo Lobo and Tom Proctor. It just so happens two of those trainers have leading contenders in this year’s race as well – Red Knight (Maker) and Arklow (Cox). The other main contender is Gufo, who is trained by another top tier trainer in Cristophe Clement.
Red Knight was away from the races for 11 months, from last August to July 27, and returned as if he had never been off as he won the Colonial Cup Stakes at the distance of the Turf Cup pretty easily in a field of 11. He earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure for that victory, and is almost certainly going to improve physically in his second start off the layoff to run even faster. The Colonial Cup Stakes has since proven productive as the third horse came back to win a stakes while the sixth horse missed by a head in another stakes race. In the 2020 Turf Cup, his only previous start at Kentucky Downs, Red Knight finished well from fifth to second but was no match for Arklow, who had drawn off by a length in the stretch. That year Red Knight was coming back from eight months on the bench, but since he has run much more recently this time he could post the mild upset and win.
Gufo has never run on this unusually shaped course (for U.S. based horses) but that is his only question mark. After reeling off big wins last year in the Grand Couturier Stakes and in the Sword Dancer Stakes, both at this mile and one-half trip, Gufo regressed a bit to end his 2021 campaign with third and 10th place efforts. Even after winning the Pan American Stakes at this distance in April, he regressed a bit for second, third and fifth place efforts. All that came to an end when he once again wore the blinkers he had on for his two stakes wins last summer, rallying strongly in the final stages to win this year’s Sword Dancer with a 112 figure, short of the career-best 116 figure earned winning the same race last year but putting him in line to run even faster and contend for top honors in this race.
Arklow won this race in 2018, was second in 2019, won in 2020 and came up a neck short of victory last year. In each effort he has proven he adores this turf course and gives 100% every time he runs over it. In his 2020 win and last year when beaten a neck, Arklow earned career-best 116 figures. After a fifth place effort last October following his win in this race Arklow took almost nine months off, returning at the end of July for a stirring finish when rallying from fifth and coming up just a half-length short of winning the Bowling Green Stakes. That effort earned a 107 figure which Arklow is sure to improve upon as he now has the benefit of a race under his belt off the layoff, and I fully expect him to run as well as he did in this race the previous two years, which is good enough to provide us all with a fantastic stretch run as he battles with the other main contenders in the field.
With a number of high odds horses not without a shot to finish second, we can play some additional exactas in addition to boxing the three contenders. Those other horses are Breakpoint, Temple, Glynn County, Another Mystery and Militarist.
Win: Red Knight and Arklow should be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more, perhaps Arklow at 5 to 2 or more.
Gufo has the same 5 to 2 minimum odds but opens at 7 to 5 and we will have to find other ways to profit by his winning.
When betting on two (or more) horses to win, particularly with one likely to go to post at high odds as is the case here, we should “DUTCH” the bet, which means to prorate our total wagers among the two horses based on the odds. Amwager.com has a free and easy to use Dutching Tool available where you can set the amount you want to bet, or the amount you want to win, and the math is done for you. This is just one of many tools, and perks, available to the bettor at Amwager.com
Box Red Knight, Arklow and Gufo
Red Knight, Arklow and Gufo over Red Knight, Arklow, Gufo, Breakpoint, Temple, Glynn County, Another Mystery and Militarist
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Ladies Sprint Stakes – Race 11 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 6:20 PM Eastern/5:20 Central
The purse for this race got boosted to $1 million because grade 1 winner Campanelle is running, although as an Irish Bred horse she’s only eligible for 60% of the base purse of $600K. She is a very strong contender to win, but opens at 8 to 5 and similar to Arrest Me Red in race 9, she is not a complete standout because Creative Credit, Tobys Heart and In Good Spirits can all win with their best efforts.
Tobys Heart opens at 15/1 in spite of having won five of 15 in her career all on turf. Most importantly she won the Music City Stakes last year for three year olds only on the course in her only start here. She had finished third prior to that and enters this year’s race off a third place finish as well. Beschizza got to know her when up for the first time in the prep at Ellis Park where she missed second by a head in a race common to four other horses in here and she has every right to run back to her big effort last year over the course which may be good enough to win.
In Good Spirits won THIS RACE last year, in her only try over the course. She had finished second before that and this year finished fourth in her previous race but that was a MILE which may have been too long for her. On the cut back in distance she’s going to have some extra stamina late and it’s a very good sign that John Velazquez rides her this year as he did last you, also on the same pattern of shipping in from Saratoga.
Creative Credit won that prep race at Ellis Park last month, for her FOURTH win in a row. She’s now eight for 13 on grass and if not leading early is likely to be second or third and has won from those positions as well. Tommy Pompell has been up for her last three wins and all three were good enough to be competitive right to the wire if repeated today.
Campanelle is a world traveler, having raced in England, France, Florida and Kentucky. She showed her talent this past April when returning from six months off and going NINE PATHS wide on the far turn to win in a talented field of 13. Last year she won the prestigious Queen Mary Stakes (in an 18 horse field) then beat males in France and this year after her win in April she ventured back to Royal Ascot and nearly won the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, against males and with a $1.2 million purse, AFTER blowing the start. Her best race beats these about 75 times in 100 but there is room for her not to run her best. However, she is not to be taken lightly by any means although her odds will be very low.
Bets: Win: Tobys Heart at 3 to 1 or more. Creative Credit and In Good Spirits at 4 to 1 or more.
This is another opportunity to maximize profit using a dutching tool, like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager, particularly as we wouldn’t want to be kicking ourselves later if one of the three horses above won and paid about $30 for a $ 2 bet.
Exactas: Box Creative Credit, Tobys Heart, Campanelle and In Good Spirits.
Campanelle over Creative Credit, Tobys Heart and In Good Spirits.