September 23rd – Thrilling Picks Select Picks

THURSDAY GULFSTREAM PARK SEPT 23
We develop our picks through a process of analyzing past races that mirror today’s conditions to identify significant attributes that have helped past winners (aka regression analysis) .  The selections below are intended to help shape multi-race tickets (Doubles, PICK3,4,5s).

RACE 1

Of the chalky contenders #3, 5, 8, handicappers maybe better off to toss #8 Greatest Glory from the win position of tickets because it finished 17+ lengths behind the winner in it’s prior race. Compare that to #3 SweetCandyFacatory which was only 1 length behind the winner if her last race. #5 Kingston Queen is the wildcard, it reared during at the start of it’s last race, meanwhile she was the favorite in the race before that.

EXACTA

#3, 5
#3, 5, 8

For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 3
Stretch # 5

RACE 2
An interesting insight to share: Horses making a cut back in distance have NEVER won this race type before.  This helps us eliminate two contenders immediately the #2 and #5.

60% of the time this race has been won by horses with the E2 pace advantage. Today, this is   #4 Levy Land, but at 8-1 we will keep #4 as our stretch horse.

For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 1, 6
Stretch # 4

RACE 3
This race type has been won by first time runners 100% of the time, but we are hesitant to single #4 Alecka Star, trainer Michael Yates has never won with a 3yr old debut runner. Trainer of #7 Happy Success, Ralph Nicks, doesn’t have a very strong win% at this level however, the owners do! Whisper Hill Farm have won 33% of races when their horses have a 3 month lay off.

For Multi-Race Wagers
We are going wide using #1, 4, 6, 7

RACE 4

As this race has gone off the turf, our model says to focus on Best Lifetime Speed and Avg Late Pace.

For Multi-Race Wagers
#2, 3, 9, 10

RACE 5

Another race won by 1st time starters majority of the time. We never bet RunHappy progeny on debut runs, they have poor win% , so we toss the longshot #8 Secret Melody. The jockey of #4 Wandering E. Jaramillo is the strongest jockey for this race type, wins 17% of the time.

For Multi-Race Wagers
Must Use # 1, 4, 5
Contender # 3

OUR PICK 5 in RACE 1
rc1 # 3, 5, 6
rc2 # 1, 6
rc3 #1, 4, 6, 7
rc4 # 2, 3, 9,10 (off turf)
rc5 # 1, 4

OUR PICK 3 in RACE 2
rc2 # 4
rc3 #1, 4, 5, 6, 7
rc4 # 2, 3, 9,10 (off turf)

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