The Dwyer and John Nerud
On Saturday at Belmont we have the Dwyer and John Nerud. The Dwyer is for straight three-year olds at a one turn mile while The John Nerud is for three and up at 7 furlongs.
We’ll start with the Dwyer.
Prove Right goes from the rail and has 3 wins from 16 starts. None of those came at Belmont. He has plenty of stakes experience but looks a cut below some of these to me.
Saudi Crown is two for two at Keeneland and at Churchill. Both wins came sprinting and he stretches out here for Brad Cox. His works are fast. His races were fast. He will get plenty of support and probably makes the ps d in this elongated sprint configuration. He’s dangerous but I’ll take a shot against him.
Harrodsburg is another fast sprinter stretching out. He’s likely to tussle with Saudi Crown and that may compromise both their chances. As is Saudi Crown he’s dangerous but I’ll take a shot against him as well.
Alternate Reality looks cheap and slow for these and though he may get a decent set up I can’t see him winning.
Fort Bragg is back in the Baffert barn, gets blinkers and also Johnny V. He can sit the right trip here and is fast enough to compete with the two sprinters. He gets a better set up and has more seasoning. I think he is the most likely winner and will be tough to down.
Joey Freshwater goes turf to dirt and is yet another stretching out. He’s not as fast as some of the others but he should be sitting in a good spot with a good trip at a nice price if you like him.
It may only be a field of 6 but we have 3 improving three-year olds to watch.
In the John Nerud I’ll take a shot with Weyburn. I am not in love with anyone here but moving to the Pletcher barn (no knock on Jimmy Jerkens) and going 7 furlongs are positives for a horse who always looked like he had unfulfilled potential. Maybe the barn change wakes him up and I think 7 furlongs is exactly what he wants. Candy Man Rocket has the rail which might not be ideal so I’m willing to give Weyburn a good look in here. He’s also starting to string together decent efforts which I see as another positive.
For some thoughts on what we saw at Royal Ascot have a look:
Saratoga will be here before you know it. For what I call Pure Platinum Saratoga angles check these out:
Enjoy the races!
