Breeders' Cup Draw Luck & Disasters
One of the reasons I wait to finalize my handicapping is the draw. Draws affect trips, and trips make races. The draw can impact how the race is run, and that often determines the winner.
The Breeders’ Cup draw is complete. Let’s take a look at some of the disasters and some of the luck of the draws as well. It can definitely provide some valuable insight into how these races will be run.
I will upgrade and downgrade accordingly. This is how I saw the draw.
The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint saw morning line favorite Golden Pal land in the 14 hole. With a short run to that first turn and some fast sprinters lined up inside, I can’t view that as a positive. I might not go as far as a disaster, but it’s close. At least it allows Irad Ortiz to keep his mount in the clear, but it would not be my choice of where to be.
The draw of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf did no favors to Canadian hopeful and contender Gretzky the Great. He is out in the 11 slot in the one mile race. That is tough in this two-turn contest over a course that has a short run to the first turn. On the other hand, French hopeful Sealiway got lucky. He gets a cozy rail spot to save ground into that short run to the clubhouse turn.
The favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fillies, Princess Noor drew the outside, but the race only has 7 in it. That said, her two main rivals, Simply Ravishing drew the rail, and Dayoutoftheoffice drew the 3. It is not a disaster for Princess Noor, but I’d say the other two are drawn better over a track like Keeneland.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf saw contender Campanelle draw the 10. Chief rivals Plum Ali and Aunt Pearl fared much better in the 4 and 5 slots, respectively.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile saw favorite Jackie’s Warrior draw perfectly in number 7.
Moving to Saturday, ouch for Gamine, who drew inside in the 2 post for the Filly and Mare Sprint. She’d be much better served with an outside post, but she has speed. This draw forces her usually patient rider Johnny Velazquez to gun or be compromised.
Got Stormy, a 7-2 morning line contender in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, received no help from the draw in the five-and-a-half-furlong dash. She’ll have to come out of a wide 12 slot, which won’t be easy.
The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hung morning line favorite Complexity out in the 10 post. At Keeneland, with the short run to the first turn, that can easily turn into a wide trip.
The draw of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf appears to have been fair to all. Let’s see what happens.
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint looks like it may have doubled up and made up for the Filly and Mare Turf. CZ Rocket, a serious player, drew inside down in the 2 hole. It is very easy to get bottled up down there, especially if you are not a front running speed horse or if you don’t break running. Luis Saez will need to be at his heads up best. Poor Vekoma wound up in post 14. Ouch. He’s good, and he will have to be to win the Sprint from there.
The Breeders’ Cup Mile on the turf with that short run to the first turn is almost always a problem at places like Keeneland and Santa Anita. Morning line favorite Ivar is in the 11 post. No favors there. Last year’s winner, Uni, is in the 12 post. No favors for her either. Kameko, a quality contender, drew post 2, and I’d bet rider Oisin Murphy smiled.
In the Distaff Monomoy Girl drew far outside in the 10 post. She can stay clear from there and do what Florent Geroux wants her to. I’d say she drew fine.
The Breeders’ Cup Turf draw looks like another that was fair to all. Let the best horse on the day win.
In the Classic Tiz the Law drew the 2 post. I see that as a disadvantage big time. He reportedly is not best inside, and he is just about guaranteed to be there. There is enough speed to his inside to pin him unless Manny Franco can move him out into a stalking position. Not impossible, but will take some heads-up race riding and no complacency.
That’s my take on the draw and how I will be upgrading and downgrading some contenders. For a lot more of a deep dive into the 2020 Breeders’ Cup, get a seat at the table of the Past the Wire Breeders’ Cup live interactive webinar. You can get a reservation here.
Also make sure you take advantage of AmWager and all the features they offer to give horseplayers an edge: You can learn more about the features here.