Kent Stakes – Race 7 at Delaware Park – Post Time 4:15 PM Eastern
Among the three win contenders, who between them have about 90% of the probability to win this race combined, Gershwin is likely to offer the best return for the risk, opening at 8/1. Never worse than third in five races, Gershwin has yet to run on grass because in all three races where he was entered for a turf race, all three were run on dirt. I don’t necessarily think trainer Stidham was praying for rain each time as the colt’s breeding screams turf as much as it does dirt. In his most recent race, the Grade 3 Penn Mile (scheduled for grass) Gershwin won fairly easily by a couple of lengths while never challenged in the last eighth of a mile. The career best 94 Equibase figure is the second best last figure in the field and the pattern suggests even better here so with the rail and Bravo riding he has every right to win his second grade 3 stakes race in a row. Better still, if the race comes off the grass he’s the one to beat as well.
Yes This Time earned a field high last race figure of 98 winning the English Channel Stakes at Gulfstream Park for his fourth straight win and first in a stakes. He earned a 98 figure before that winning at the same NW1X allowance level as Gershwin did before his Penn Mile win so these two look essentially evenly matched. The difference is Yes This Time opens at 7 to 2 and went to post at 9 to 5 in his most recent race.
Like the King opens as the favorite and for good reason, as he won the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at this nine furlong trip in March. He had the points and so took a shot in the Kentucky Derby, checking in a non-threatening 12th. Back on turf he ran a poor fifth at the end of May in the non-graded Audubon Stakes but he’s won on turf as well as all-weather and his best efforts, with 95 figures, could have him in the thick of things at the end although he’s absolutely a poor win bet anywhere near his 8/5 starting odds.
Win bet: Gershwin at odds of 2/1 or higher.
IF Yes This Time is 2/1 or higher near post time he can be bet as well.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
With two of the three win contenders likely to go to post at low odds a trifecta offers better value than an exacta, and we can throw a few decent odds horses into the mix as well
Trifecta: (three plays)
Box Gershwin, Yes This Time and Like the King
Gershwin, Yes This Time and Like the King over Gershwin, Yes This Time and Like the King over Gershwin, Yes This Time, Like the King, Shackled Love, Eamonn, Wootton Asset and Doubleoseven
Gershwin, Yes This Time, Like the King over Gershwin, Yes This Time, Like the King, Shackled Love, Eamonn, Wootton Asset and Doubleoseven over Gershwin, Yes This Time and Like the King
Doubles: (There’s little value in the double using favorite Like the King in this race with favorite Crazy Beautiful in race 8 so we should skip those combinations and play more on the higher paying combinations)
Race 7: Gershwin, Yes This Time
Race 8: Juror Number Four, Crazy Beautiful
Race 7: Gershwin, Yes This Time and Like the King
Race 8: Juror Number Four