Friday September 18
Jockey Club Gold Cup (Grade 1) – Race 5 at Belmont Park – Post Time 4:14 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Phileas Fogg
For exactas: Forever Young
Phileas Fogg has won three races at a mile and a quarter, all since August 2025. He also finished second and third in his other two starts at this distance. He won the Suburban Stakes in July at this distance, earning his career-best 120 Equibase Speed Figure after taking an easy lead and winning by 10 lengths. With Chunk of Gold scratched (announced earlier this week), Phileas Fogg will have an easy lead again in this race. He also won the 2025 Suburban, leading all the way. In the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Phileas Fogg was second early on a fast pace, took the lead with a mile to run, but succumbed to the early pace and finished third.
Forever Young, the prohibitive favorite, won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup will be his prep for the 2026 Cup. He doesn’t have to win this race because his prize comes on October 31. In his last race, Forever Young finished second in the Dubai World Cup, unable to catch Magnitude, who led from the start. Forever Young earned a 126 figure, but that figure belonged to Magnitude just because Magnitude was fast and won so easily. Before that, Forever Young won the Saudi Cup, earning a 118 figure, and his figure in the Breeders’ Cup Classic was 114. This year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup is similar to the World Cup, where a frontrunner can make it difficult for Forever Young to win. Given the pace in this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, it is possible that Forever Young will not be able to pass Phileas Fogg.
In summary, Phileas Fogg is to this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup what Magnitude was to the Dubai World Cup.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Phileas Fogg at 9 to 5 or higher.
Exacta: Box Phileas Fogg and Forever Young
Saturday, September 19
Greenwood Cup – Race 10 Parx Racing – Post Time 2:57 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Stronsino
For exactas: Parchment Party
In this race, there is a clear early frontrunner: Stronsino. He was on a year-long layoff before winning on June 28, earning a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. That figure is similar to Parchment Party, who won in April and May with back-to-back 107 figures. Stronsino also earned his last win before the layoff, in June 2025, in wire-to-wire fashion. In his second race of the year on August 18, Stronsino finished fourth after failing to get the lead early. He was second early, took the lead after the half, but fell behind at the quarter and the final eighth, then finished fourth.
In today’s race, Stronsino will get the lead, as he did for his win in June and last year, and will force Parchment Party, the favorite, to pass him. Stronsino’s trainer, Jamie Ness, has won three times and finished second in seven starts at this mile-and-a-half distance over the past five years, including this race in 2021. Stronsino opens at 12 to 1, which is way too high not to bet.
Parchment Party opens at 9 to 5. He has won four marathon races (a mile and a half and one and three-quarter miles) since August 2025. In his second race back, the Suburban on July 4, Parchment Party finished seventh and was never in contention. In that race, Phileas Fogg led from start to finish. Then, in his last race, Parchment Party missed by a head, unable to pass the winner in a head-to-head battle in the last eighth. Parchment Party can win, but Stronsino will make it difficult.
Handicapper Picks
Bet Stronsino at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exacta: Box Stronsino and Parchment Party
Gallant Bob Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 12 at Parx Racing – Post Time 4:03 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Captivator, Stradale
Captivator is the early frontrunner, faster early than Tallmar, Amberjack, and Langvad. Captivator won three of four sprints after finishing second in his career debut. He won on June 6 after a six-month layoff, leading easily and holding well, earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure. He won his next race on July 31, powering to victory with an even better performance and a 111 figure. No other horse in this field has run faster than a 100 figure. He is from California, and he gets jockey Emisael Jaramillo, who rode him in his last two races. His trainer, John Sadler, just won with another shipper, Somerset West, in the Music Stakes last weekend. Captivator is the horse to catch, and to beat.
Stradale just won the Mahony Stakes on turf, earning a 93 figure, after he missed by a neck on dirt in the Bachelor Stakes in May, where he earned his best figure, 99. Jose Ortiz rode him in the Mahony and will ride again. Stradale should finish second, but I would play an exacta box between him and Captivator.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Captivator at odds of 9/5 or higher.
Stradale at odds of 3 to 1 or higher
Exacta: Box Captivator and Stradale
Cotillion Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 13 at Parx Racing – Post Time 4:58 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Iron Orchard, Always a Runner, Tap to Open
Iron Orchard cost $2.5 million at auction in November 2025. She has earned nearly half a million dollars and could more than double it with the $600,000 winner’s share of this race. She won four of seven races after she won her first three races, including the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes last October. She went into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but stumbled and was last of nine, never getting in the race.
After the Juvenile Fillies, Iron Orchard moved to trainer Todd Pletcher and was given nine months off. When she returned in the Victory Ride, she led past the first quarter and the half but tired to ninth. In her second race of the year, she led early but finished fourth, though she ran better. Then she stretched out to a mile and an eighth and won powerfully by 12 lengths on August 21, leading from the start to the finish. Iron Orchard ran the half in 47. Only one horse, Tap to Open, has any early speed in the field at the start. However, Tap to Open gets the outside (nine) post, while Iron Orchard gets the five post. She earned a career-high 93 Equibase Speed Figure and is running a sixteenth less, which is another reason she could run even better. Her trainer, Steven Asmussen, has won the Cotillion three times in recent history with Midnight Bisou (2018), Clairiere (2021), and Society (2023). Iron Orchard has a shot at upsetting the heavy favorite, Always a Runner, at starting odds of 12 to 1.
Always a Runner doesn’t have to worry about Counting Stars, who beat her twice in the Acorn Stakes on June 5 and in the CCA Oaks on July 25, because Counting Stars isn’t running in this race. In the CCA Oaks, Counting Stars led early, and Always a Runner got within a head at the eighth pole, but the winner pulled away by four lengths. Always a Runner earned a 98 figure, and her last two races earned 95 and 99, including her win in the Kentucky Oaks. If Iron Orchard has an easy lead, as I suspect, it might be that Always a Runner can’t pass Iron Orchard the same way Always a Runner couldn’t pass Counting Stars.
Tap to Open is another horse with an early/presser style, and she could be ahead of Always a Runner early in the Cotillion. Tap to Open has won her third straight race, including the prep at the Cotillion at Parx in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes, one month ago, earning a career-best 91 figure. Prat rode her in that race and rides again today. Consider that her trainer, Brad Cox, and Prat won with Leading Change in the Travers Stakes just one month ago. Tap to Open needs a bit of improvement, but considering that she has won three races and starts at 8 to 1, she is another horse to consider betting to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Iron Orchard at 3 to 1 or higher.
Always a Runner has odds of 2 to 1 or higher, but she won’t be that so that she will use her in exactas.
Tap to Open to win at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Box Iron Orchard, Always a Runner, Tap to Open