Lake George S. (Grade 3) – Race 9 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Lion Lake, Amberglen
For trifectas in third: Time to Dream, Ultimate Love
Lion Lake has the class in this Grade 3 Lake George Stakes, as she has finished in the money in her last four races, all graded stakes, missing by a neck in two of them. Her win was in February in her only Grade 3 race, the Homecomesbride Stakes. Then she missed by a neck in the higher-class Grade 2 Appalachian (in April) and was still a head behind the winner late until she was beaten a length. In that race, Lion Lake had trouble when she stumbled at the start and, most importantly, her jockey lost the crop at the eighth pole. She might have won that race if not for that trouble. Her recent effort came in the Wonder Again Stakes at Saratoga on June 5, when she finished second. Her best effort came in the Edgewood, where she earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 104. With no trouble, she should win again.
Amberglen is running in her first graded stakes, but her recent win on June 19 suggests she fits. She won her career debut race last October on turf, showing maturity and holding off 11 others. In her second race, she was entered in the Wait A While Stakes on turf, but the race was rained off; she didn’t show the same kick as in her first race and finished fourth. Amberglen was off for four and a half months until April. When she returned to the grass she finished second, not bad off a layoff. In her last race she led at the start, and no horse had a chance as she poured it on in the stretch and won by five lengths. That earned her a career-best 103 figure. If she improves, she can make the class raise, and if Lion Lake doesn’t run her best, Amberglen can win.
Time to Dream finished third in the Wonder Stakes three-quarters of a length behind Lion Lake. She finished second and third in two other graded stakes before finishing fifth in her last race, the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She could improve on the drop in class. Ultimate Love is also lowered in class after finishing ninth in the Oaks. One start before she finished second, beaten a head in the non-graded Hilltop Stakes.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Lion Lake, Amberglen at 9 to 5 or higher.
Exacta: Box Lion Lake, Amberglen
Trifecta: Lion Lake, Amberglen over Lion Lake, Amberglen over Time to Dream, Ultimate Love
Double:
Race 9: Lion Lake, Amberglen
Race 10: Commandment
Jim Dandy Stakes – Race 10 at Saratoga (Grade 2) – Post Time 5:44 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Commandment
Second in exacta: Chip Honcho
Commandment finished second in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes on June 6, when he put in an excellent kick from eighth in tandem with Golden Tempo (who had been ninth before). At the top of the stretch, he was third when Golden Tempo pulled a neck ahead and the winner won by a length. He earned a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, the same as he earned when he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby in February. Today, Commandment has Golden Tempo in this race and will be wearing blinkers. Trainer Brad Cox has to know when to change blinkers based on a situation, given that he has won 29 of 108 races over the past three years. Flavien Prat rode Commandment when they won the Florida Derby, and he rides again today. Commandment is the horse to beat.
Chip Honcho won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby on June 20 for his first graded stakes win. His best effort in terms of figure came when he led from the start in the Grade 2 Risen Star in February, finishing a half-length behind (Paladin). Chip Honcho will likely be the pacesetter, and although he may have an easy lead, I think Commandment should get the best of him.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Commandment at 6 to 5 or higher.
Exacta: Commandment over Chip Honcho
Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Chasten, Eunomia
Other contenders: Om N Joy, Majestic Oops
Chasten moved from California and won two stakes in three tries. The only other horse in this nine-horse field to have won a Grade 1 stakes is Seismic Beauty, who won this race last year. However, Seismic Beauty’s last two races were a third in the Grade 2 San Margarita Stakes on May 30, and 11th in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last fall. She could improve, but her four wins have all come from the front, and her nemesis, Simply Joking, is also in this race. Simply Joking has won both of her routes on the lead. Seismic Beauty and Simply Joking have raced once against each other, battling at an exhausting pace of 45.2 and 1:09.2, and finished second and third. The beneficiary was Om N Joy, who won by almost four lengths.
Simply Joking and Seismic Beauty are both going to run hard early, and that helps Chasten, who gets the rail. Chasten is a half-sister to champion Idiomatic, who won 12 of 17 races and earned $3.4 million. Chasten earned her two best Equibase Speed Figures, 99 in her last race and 98 two starts before. She is a four-year-old, and she should improve to get her fifth win in her ninth race.
Eunomia is also a shipper from New York. She moved to trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., after being purchased. In December, in her first race for the new trainer, she won. In March, she won a non-graded stakes, leading at the eighth pole and beating Alpine Princess by a neck. That was the Grade 2 Doubledogdare Stakes, a two-turn race earning her a career-best 97 figure. She then cut back to a one-turn race in the Grade 2 Ruffian Stakes, where she stumbled at the break and moved from fifth to second. That is the way she usually runs, and if she gets a better start, she can run as well as she did one race back, she can be a contender.
Om N Joy had her best race in the San Margarita, even though her jockey lost the crop, but the two in front were too fast. That race earned a 99 figure. She needs to improve to beat either Chasten or Eunomia. Om N Joy has won six of 17 races and has never finished second. One thing I think is in her favor is that she won five straight from March through August 2025. After four poor races from March through May, given that she just won, she could get her second consecutive win.
Majestic Oops won the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes in March, her second win after a three-month layoff. But then she ran in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes, never in contention, eight lengths behind the top two, and finished third, better than Om N Joy (fifth). She was then purchased and moved to trainer D’Amato, and finished third in the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs. She has had two months off, and she put in a fast five furlongs at Del Mar recently (59.2), fifth best of 87. She has nine wins and has finished second 11 times.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Chasten, Eunomia at 2 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Box Chasten, Eunomia
Chasten, Eunomia over Chasten, Eunomia, Om N Joy, Majestic Oops
Chasten, Eunomia, Om N Joy, Majestic Oops over Chasten, Eunomia