Lake Placid (Grade 2) – Race 10 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:33 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Naomis

For second in exactas: Deep Learning, Queen of Hawaii

Naomis is making her North American debut in the Lake Placid Stakes. She won her last two races in France, a listed stakes on April 19 and the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham on May 31. She likely cost a pretty penny after the Sandringham, then was sent to the U.S. for Chad Brown. She has worked every day since July 12, and most of her workouts have been on the Saratoga turf. In the Sandringham she was fourth at the quarter to the finish and she showed quite a kick. She improved her Equibase Speed Figures from 97 to 109 in her last two races, with both being one mile the same as the Lake Placid. No horse in this field has earned a figure better than 101 and Naomis is still improving. She has won on a left-handed course, so that isn’t a problem for this race. Flavien Prat gets aboard, and when Prat and Brown team up with foreign horses making in graded stakes on turf routes, they have won or placed in five of six starts. Naomis starts as the second favorite at 3 to 1, which would make her a big overlay.

I think Deep Learning and Queen of Hawaii are good for second in exactas. Deep Learning is Brown’s other trainee in this race, starting at 15 to 1. She finished second in the Lake George Stakes on August 1 off a nine-month layoff. Earning a 101 figure, she can improve in her second race off the layoff. She has finished first or second in four races in the U.S., including three stakes. Prat rode her for her two wins but he chose to go to Naomis. Still, Manny Franco is having a fantastic meet and is second in wins.

Queen of Hawaii is also running her second race off a layoff after winning on July 9. She imported to the U.S. last fall to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf, but she got off slow and only finished seventh. Previously, she won a group three stakes and earned a 101 figure. In her last race, she earned a 92 figure, and I believe she will improve back to 101 or higher but is not good enough to beat Naomis. Her starting odds are 2 to 1, but I’m pretty sure she won’t be the favorite when the race is run.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Naomis at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Naomis over Deep Learning, Queen of Hawaii

Forego Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 11 Saratoga – Post Time 5:11 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Book’em Danno

Other contenders: Tip Top Thomas, Hymn, Senior Officer

Book’em Danno is the horse to beat, particularly since Banishing is supposed to be running in the Charles Town Classic Stakes on Friday. Book’em has won 12 of 19 races with five wins in six races at Saratoga, including the 2025 Forego. He might have gotten his seventh win if he had not been just a neck behind in the Carter Stakes in April when he came off a layoff of more than six months. Last year, Book’em Danno won the True North at Saratoga in July when he earned his best Equibase Speed Figure of 117 before he won the Vanderbilt and the Forego.

Book’em Danno was off the last year from the Forego until the Carter where he earned a 102 figure. Then he won the True North on June 6 earning a 105. He improved again to a 110 figure in the Mr. Prospector in preparation for this race. Considering this isn’t a handicap race where the others only get two pounds from Book’em Danno, he should win.

Still, there are three other horses that I wouldn’t say have no shot at an upset. Those are Tip Top Thomas, Hymn, and Senior Officer. All three need to run their best races to win. Senior Officer has a record of four wins and two seconds in six races. Tip Top Thomas has a record of 4-2-1 in eight races. Both of their latest races were at Saratoga. Neither horse has earned figures better than 108, but Tip Top Thomas is making his second race off a layoff of nine months at the rail, so he could be on the lead and could be the horse Book’em Danno will need to pass in the stretch. Hymn has run four excellent races and has earned the same 108 figures as the other two. He won three races from April through June then he finished second in the Vanderbilt, but no horse was going to beat the winner, Built.

If Banishing races in the Forego, he is the only horse that has a shot at posting an upset. He won six of 17 races since January 2025. Of those 17 races, some, if repeated, could win this Forego, particularly if he runs as he did in the Godolphin Mile in March. He earned an 114 Equibase Speed Figure in that race and earned the same 114 figure when he won the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in March 2025. He has the most earnings of any horse in this field with $3.1 million, and in his career, he has won 11 races in 30 dirt races.

 Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Book’em Danno at 1 to 1 (even more) or higher.

I might consider any of the other three – Tip Top Thomas, Hymn, and Senior Officer horses at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

If he runs, I would bet Banishing at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas (particularly if Book’em is less than even money): Book’em Danno over Tip Top Thomas, Hymn, Senior Officer

Ballerina Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 12 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:49 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Echo Sound, Kilwin

Other contenders: R Disaster, Way and Means, Eclatant

Echo Sound and Kilwin are an uncoupled entry from trainer Rusty Arnold. Since they start at odds of 15/1 and 8/1, I would consider both. Both horses have won at Saratoga, which is a positive, and both are making their second starts of the year with recent wins.

Echo Sound won her first two races of 2025 off a long layoff, winning the Miss Preakness Stakes last May, then the Victory Stakes last July, where she earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106. She was then entered in the Test Stakes, where she was the favorite, but she was on a scintillating pace when she was second early and finished sixth. The winner was her stablemate Kilwin, who rallied from last of eight to win by a neck. Echo Sound then finished seventh in the Dogwood Stakes last September and was sent to layoff for the fall, winter, and spring. When she came back for the Regret Stakes on July 18, she won easily by seven lengths. Echo Sound earned a 99 figure while below her best, but she can definitely improve. Jockey Saez has been on her for the last three stakes. Echo Sound gets the rail and has excellent tactical speed when she has not been less than third early.

Jose Ortiz rode Kilwin for the first time in the Test Stakes last year at the same distance as the Ballerina. Then she ran in the Music City Stakes last September on turf but she was flat and finished eighth. Kilwin went on a layoff after that race coming back to win her only race this year, the Twin Bridges Stakes on July 19, and was ready when she rallied from sixth to win going away. She earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106 and is going to improve again, particularly as Ortiz gets back on. She won both of her two races at this seven-furlong distance. Kilwin could be last early, but if the pace is scintillating, she could win the same way she did last year when she won the Test.

R Disaster is the horse both Echo Sound and Kilwin will have to pass to win. She led in her last seven races, winning four, and she has won at Saratoga. She won the Derby City Distaff Stakes in May after a four-month layoff, so she runs well off layoffs. However, her three best wins in 2025 and 2026 only earned 103 figures. So even if she succumbs to the pace and either Echo Sound or Kilwin beats her, she is very likely to finish in the exacta, as she has only finished second once in 16 races.

Way and Means is yet another excellent filly, and she starts at 9 to 5. She has won six of 12 races overall and five of six races at Saratoga. She won the Test in 2024 (which Kilwin won last year). However, she has only run four times since November 2024. In her first race this year, she was second behind R Disaster in the Derby City Distaff, where she earned a 99 figure. She won the Bed o’Roses again earning a 108 figure, but she just won by a nose. She can win, but she is not a standout.

Eclatant has won six of nine races. However, she is the only contender who has never run at Saratoga. She won all three races this year including the Madison Stakes in April, where she earned a career-best 107 figure. In her most recent race, the Chicago Stakes on June 20, she earned a 95 figure. In both of her other races she won by a head or less. Also, jockey Manny Franco is riding her for the first time.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Bet both Echo Sound and Kilwin at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta:

Echo Sound and Kilwin over R Disaster, Way and Means, Eclatant

R Disaster, Way and Means, Eclatant over Echo Sound and Kilwin