Go For Wand Stakes – Race 7 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:10 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Scalable, Weigh the Risks

Scalable and Weigh the Risks of a tower in the field. Last week’s Comely Stakes blog featured two horses, with Zany having a high probability of winning and Jumping the Gun to finish the exacta. That race returned 7 to 1 for the exacta. I see a similar race in this Go For Wand Stakes, but in this race, both horses have a high probability, perhaps 40% each.

Scalable won the Interborough Stakes last January with a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. She came off a layoff on September 27 at the higher-class Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes, finishing sixth. On November 8, Scalable rallied from far back at seventh, then finished third, a half-length behind the runner-up, and a length and a half-lengths with Weigh the Risks winning.

In the Interborough, Scalable earned the same exact 102 figure that Weigh the Risks received when winning the Pumpkin Pie in November. Both horses won their races at seven furlongs at Aqueduct. Scalable is coming off her third layoff before the Go For Wand. So, I believe Weigh the Risks will likely be the favorite. Therefore, Scalable offers the best odds to win, and the suggested exacta box includes Weigh the Risks and Scalable.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Scalable and Weigh the Risks are considered a good bet at fair odds at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exacta Box: Scalable, Weigh the Risks

Tropical Park Oaks – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 3:47 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: And One More Time, Dentino d’Oro, Ramsey Pond
Possible horse to finish second in exactas: Souper Willaway, Mischief in Motion, Crafty Collector, Souper Zonda, Supa Speed

And One More Time won the 2024 Grade 1 Natalma Stakes on September 14, her first turf route and third career race. She didn’t race again until September 21 when she won an allowance race without a prep. She has previously beaten two stakes-quality fillies, Nitrogen (6-4-2, $2 million) and Vixen (3-2-3, $500,000), and I believe And One More Time could have been another top sophomore if she hadn’t been off for so long. She is likely to run her best race yet in her second race back after the layoff. Given that the runner-up, Shotgun Wedding, won the Ontario Damsel Stakes on September 21, it’s likely that And One More Time will win this race.

Destino d’Oro has run poorly in two races since then, but her last two races were the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth Cup (October 11) and the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks (September 10), each with a $2 million purse. She’s entered in this easy event now. She rested for two months before winning the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes on August 3, and she also ran a race on June 19. She has a good chance to win either her July or August races, and she also won her first career start, which could be a big race.

Ramsey Pond was the second favorite in the Cellar Shiraz Stakes on October 31, but she faced trouble in the initial stages and was then caught in traffic. When she finally had a clear lane, she closed strongly from seventh to third. She gets a significant jockey change to Gaffalione, who has won 30% of his races for trainer Saffie Jr. over the past two years. If Ramsey Pond has no traffic trouble, she has a shot.

Handicapper Picks

Win bet: And One More Time on at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Dentino d’Oro at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Ramsey Pond is at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Top And One More Time, Dentino d’Oro, Ramsey Pond over And One More Time, Dentino d’Oro, Ramsey Pond, Souper Willaway, Mischief in Motion, Crafty Collector, Souper Zonda, Supa Speed

Tropical Park Derby – Race 11 at Aqueduct – Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Simulate, Chapman’s Peak, Candytown, Tiz Dashing

Simulate comes from a “key race,” a productive situation where two or more horses went on to win their next races. That race took place on October 25, with Simulate finishing 10th. Key race third-place finisher Giocoso won the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes on November 22, while fifth-place Salamis won the Hollywood Derby (November 29). Simulate also poorly, finishing seventh (out of 12) on August 30, but that was his longest race (1 5/16 miles) at Kentucky Downs, where some horses don’t run well on the European-style course. Three races back, Simulate finished powerfully, moving from sixth in the last quarter to second behind Giocoso in the Grade Secretariat Stakes (August 9). Simulate also won on July 18, which was his best performance at this race’s distance, earning a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Moving from three graded race events to this non-graded stakes allows Simulate to return to his earlier success races and become a strong contender.

Chapman’s Peak narrowly missed winning, finishing second by a head in the Commonwealth Stakes, November 22, behind Giocoso. Chapman’s Peak set a career-best 102 figure, making his third consecutive improvement in numbers, and with another strong effort, he is a horse capable of winning.

Candytown finished fourth in the Showing Up Stakes (November 1), behind Souper Force (winner) and Layabout (second), but while those two had no trouble, Candytown had trouble. In that race, Candytown was caught in traffic at the quarter-pole, six paths wide, and was full of run, a neck behind the third finisher, and another length from the winner. That effort earned Candytown a 102, and without trouble, he might perform as well as he did on August 30.

Tiz Dashing won the Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes on November 8, with a career-best 106 figure, which is the best in the field. If he can run as well as he did in his last race, riding him again, he can also potentially be among the contenders.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Simulate, Chapman’s Peak, Candytown, Tiz Dashing at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.
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Exacta Bet: Simulate, Chapman’s Peak, Candytown, and Tiz Dashing at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.