Demoiselle Stakes – Race 3 at Aqueduct – Post Time 12:17 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Zany
Exacta for second: Jumping the Gun
The Demoiselle Stakes has featured some star-studded fillies over its history, including Malathaat (2020) and Nest (2021), trained by Todd Pletcher. Both won 18 races and earned $8 million, with those wins making two of the four in the past five years. Pletcher has two entries in this year’s race: Believable and Zany. But Zany is the stronger of the pair.
Zany, who achieved her only career win last November 2, went wire-to-wire for a six-length victory and is expected to beat the other five to win again. She needs to improve slightly, and she could, to earn her second career stakes win.
Jump the Gun finished second in the White Clay Creek Stakes in her recent race and should finish second again.
Handicapper Picks
Win bet: Zany is considered a good bet at fair odds of 1 to 1 (even) or higher.
Exacta: Zany over Jumping the Gun
Cigar Mile Handicap – Race 10 at Aqueduct- Post Time 3:37 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Pentathlon and Bishops Bay
Pentathlon and Bishops Bay both won recent races, at the same distance as the Cigar Mile Handicap. Bishops Bay won on November 2 with a final time of 1:35.2, while Pentathlon won on October 24 with a time of 1:34.2.
Although Pentathlon may have run faster on the clock, the races had different “variants” that were used to calculate the speed figure for each race. As a result, Pentathlon earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 102, similar to the 104 earned by Bishops Bay.
Bishops Bay earned his last win in the Forty Nine Stakes, compared to the allowance race that Pentathlon won. Bishops Bay will have lower odds because he has won eight of 12 races, while Pentathlon has three wins in 14 races.
Pentathlon put in a fantastic workout on November 21, covering 47.2 seconds for four furlongs, which was the fastest among 110 horses working at this distance on that day. Afterward, trainer McGaughey had Pentathlon work the horse more slowly, ranking 105th out of 112 horses at four furlongs on November 29, as the trainer knew he only needed a leisurely workout. Bishops Bay is the horse to beat, but Pentathlon offers better betting odds. Bishops Bay should be included in other wagers.
Handicapper Picks
Win bet on Pentathlon at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Box Pentathlon and Bishops Bay
Straight exacta: Bishops Bay over Pentathlon
New York Stallion Series Stakes – Race 11 at Aqueduct – Post Time 4:07 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Parker Boone and Spirit of New York
Although there are 14 entries (plus two also-eligibles), two horses have the best chance to win – Parker Boone and Spirit of New York.
Parker Boone won her only race by 12 lengths. That was the fastest time of the field, earning a 93 Equibase Speed Figure. This colt is moving from Parx to race in New York for trainer Butch Reid, who also brings his top winner, Sanchez. These trainers and jockeys have combined for 30 wins in 114 starts from January 2023 to January 2024, and this colt should add another win to that tally.
Spirit of New York could improve after moving from 83 to 87 in his last race on November 14 at the Notebook Stakes, where he finished fourth. His September 20 race, when he won the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes, was a similar sprint. If Spirit of New York improves from his previous race and Parker Boone does not, he could win.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Parker Boone at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.
Spirit of New York at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exacta: Box Parker Boone and Spirit of New York
Straight exacta: Parker Boone over Spirit of New York