The Davona Dale Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:34 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Swing Vote, On Time Girl
In on second on exactas: Haute Diva
Swing Vote is an improving filly in her third start, which I believe makes her a top contender in this year’s Davona Dale Stakes. She finished third in her career debut on December 28, then won easily on January 24. Bill Mott is a trainer who doesn’t pitch his maidens into stakes unless he thinks they have a shot. Swing Vote started slowly in her last race, but the filly has class and rallied from sixth to fourth, to second, and won easily. She ran the fastest race of any other horse in their last race, earning an 88 Equibase Speed Figure, better even than On Time Girl’s 83 figure, earned when winning the Forward Gal Stakes. With continued improvement, Swing Vote is perhaps a stakes winner.
On Time Girl has won four of five races. She ran her last race as a two-year-old on November 29, winning the Fern Creek Stakes, where she earned a career-best figure of 92. She started as a three-year-old by winning the Forward Gal, easily earning an 83, and she should improve in her second race off a two-month layoff.
Haute Diva won the Cash Run Stakes at this distance, earning an 83 figure. She has four seconds in seven races, so although she is consistent, she will be beaten by both Swing Vote and On Time Girl, who are faster.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Swing Vote, On Time Girl
at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Swing Vote, On Time Girl over Swing Vote, On Time Girl, Haute Diva
The Gotham Stakes – Race 10 at Aqueduct – Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Creole Chrome, Iron Honor, Right to Party
Creole Chrome, if he runs, is a top win contender. He may not run because he is also entered into a race at Fair Grounds on this date. I think top trainer Joe Sharp may run him here because Creole Chrome has drawn an outside post, which gives him a shot, as there are four need-the-lead horses. Those four “early” horses are Crown the Buckeye, Fourth and One, Exhibition Only, and Dirty Rich. Balboa is also a speedy horse who gets the rail and has been first or second in the first half of his last three races, before losing ground in the last eighth. Creole Chrome will be third to fifth in the first quarter, the same position where he won his first career start on November 20 and again on January 18. Creole Chrome earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure, the best of any horse in the field. He also put in a sizzling eighth of 104 (four furlongs in 47.8) in a recent workout.
Iron Honor won his only race on December 13, earning an 86 figure. Iron Honor ran well in his debut, maturely stalked in second, and won easily. Given that this is a stakes race in New York, he is likely to be the favorite, but Chad Brown has only won the Gotham once in his career (2016); on the other hand, Brown has eight winners in 39 horses going sprint-to-routes in stakes (over five years). Jockey Franco has won 29% of his wins for Brown at Aqueduct over the last year and rode Iron Honor in his debut.
Right to Party won a one-turn route in his first try at this distance in his second race on January 10. He earned a 79 figure, but he is the horse that will be the best closer, as he rallied from last of seven to win. His trainer, McPeek, won 30 races in the previous five years with three-year-olds in dirt routes, more winners than Brown, which is interesting, including the 2024 Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan and Kentucky Oaks with Thorpedo Anna, so we must respect Right to Party.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Creole Chrome and Iron Honor at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
I would consider Right to Party at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Box Creole Chrome, Iron Honor, Right to Party
The Mac Diarmida Stakes – Race 13 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Padiddle, Layabout
Other contenders are Anegada and Zverev
Grand Sonata can be used in exactas in the second
Padiddle was 72 to 1 odds when he finished second in the William L. McKnight Stakes last month in the one-and-a-half-mile race at Gulfstream Park. He was 9 to 1 in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes and finished third, but no one gave him a thought in the McKnight. I guess the reason he was at high odds is that he had just one win in 17 races. This win came at Gulfstream Park in March 2025, at 7 to 2 odds, in the one mile and three furlongs of the Mac Diarmida Stakes. He then finished third in the Pan American Stakes and the Man O’War Stakes. He improved to earn a 107 figure in the McKnight.
The winner of the McKnight, Layabout, won leading from start to finish and earned a 108 figure. The issue in favor of Padiddle is getting four pounds over Layabout, 119 to 115, when it was just two pounds a month ago, and weights can make a difference. Layabout has five wins in 10 races. He has earned 108 and 103 figures in the two prior races and should run well, so he’s got a shot at winning again.
Anegada and Zverev are both trained by Michael Maker, who usually has two horses in these races. He won this race in 2022, 2023, and 2024. All three horses finished second in the McKnight. This year, Zverev finished fifth in the McKnight but was only two lengths behind. Since Maker claimed him, he won three straight, and he could still improve. Anegada won the mile and four furlongs in the John Connally Stakes on the same day as the McKnight (at Houston Park). Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Anegada for the first time, and that shows this horse has a shot to win. Anegada earned a 107 figure, the same as Layabout and Padiddle’s fastest.
Grand Sonata is a horse to put in exactas. He finished second in the 2025 United National Stakes and the 2025 Arlington Million, and he finished second in this race last year. He hasn’t won since September 2024.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Padiddle, Layabout at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.
Anegada is at odds of 9 to 2 or higher.
Zverev is at odds of 6 to 1 or higher.