Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 7th, 2025
True North Stakes - Race 7 at Saratoga - Post Time 2:37 PM Eastern
Top win contenders in preference order: Crazy Mason, Book’em Dano, Nakatomi
For exactas: Mullikin, Concrete Glory
Early Pace: Concrete Glory has superb early speed, gets the rail and gets Saez, who only rode him once previously, putting him on the lead from the start for a seven and one-half length win last November. He could be a lone front runner and considering he has finished first or second in 19 or 28 dirt races even if he can’t win, he could complete the exacta. However, Mullikin earned FOUR of his FIVE career wins leading from the start, three of the five under Prat (who rides here) and two on the lead, the other from just off the pace, and he figures to put pressure on Concrete Glory from the start, as does Full Moon Madness.
Top contenders: All that early speed and the battle for the lead sets up the race for Crazy Mason, who gets slight preference among three to close and win as he’s the highest odd on the morning line. Crazy Mason has won three in a row including the HIGHER-LEVEL Grade 2 Carter Stakes in April, under Franco, up for the first time that day and riding again. Crazy Mason has put in two exceptional morning works coming into the race and although likely last in the early stages can be first once again at the end.
Book’em Dano won the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on this day last year as a three-year-old, closing from sixth of 11 to do so. He’s won two of seven since, as well as missed by a neck with a big rally from seventh last August here at Saratoga in the Jerkins (Grade 1) and he enters the race off a huge effort when beaten about one foot on the wire in a four horse photo in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes, so he must be respected as a contender.
Nakatomi won the Grade 1 Vanderbilt Stakes at Saratoga last July following a third place finish in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai, this year winning that race so entering this Grade 2 stakes in top form, with a pair of sensational morning workouts at trainer Ward’s base in Kentucky before shipping back to the track he’s won two of three over. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has only ridden Nakatomi once previously, to a big second in the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes in the fall of 2023.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
We should consider BOTH Crazy Mason and Book‘em Dano for win bets at 5 to 2 or more.
Nakatomi has fair odds of 3 to 1 and can be considered as well.
When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas:
Box Crazy Mason, Book‘em Dano, Nakatomi
Crazy Mason, Book‘em Dano, Nakatomi over Crazy Mason, Book‘em Dano, Nakatomi, Mullikin, Concrete Glory
Woody Stephens Stakes - Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern
Win contenders in preference order: Patch Adams, Big Truzz, Colloquial
Early pace: Madaket Road (adding blinkers back) should go for the lead from his inside post, but Macho Music (just outside of him in the gate) won’t allow him an easy lead consider he’s led after a quarter mile in his last two races under Castellano (who rides back) and after adding blinkers. Actually ALL four of Macho Music’s career wins have come when leading from the start. Neoequos is a need-the-lead type needing to establish a good position early and his last win came when in front from the start, and Baffert’s other starter besides Madaket Road, Citizen Bull, is yet another need-the-lead type who in spite of blinkers coming off will be sent to the front, or to press the pace.
All that early speed sets up a trio of horses nicely, with Patch Adams getting top billing considering he ran FASTER when winning an allowance race on Derby day than Macho Music did winning the Pat Day Mile later on the day. The 106 Equibase Speed Figure earned by Patch Adams is tied for the best last race figure in the field with Colloquial, earned winning the Lafayette Stakes in April, and its NOT Patch Adams’ best figure, as he earned a spectacular 113 figure breaking his maiden in his second start last November. We can ignore his two tries in routes, in the Southwest and Tampa Bay Derby but around one turn, particularly at six and one-half furlongs to this seven furlong trip, Patch Adams best race is good enough to win.
Big Truzz has only raced twice but both were impressive. He won in April in ridden out fashion with a 94 figure then was second to Patch Adams last month with a 101 figure, well clear of the third horse. Saez gets off to ride Patch Adams as Prat, the regular rider for Patch Adams, takes the call on Chancer McPatrick, who has a lot of question marks. Rosario gets on and fits the horse’s late running style nicely so at 10 to 1 starting odds and because there is a slight chance Big Truzz can leap frog Patch Adams in terms how fast he ran run, we must consider him a contender.
Colloquial was the talk of New York and the rest of the country after winning on February 7 by seven lengths and earning an exceptional 117 Equibase Figure. Trainer Weaver knew even though the colt was bred to handle two turns he lacked the seasoning to move onto the Derby Trail, so he entered him in the Lafayette Stakes on April 7 where Colloquial romped once again, at odds of 2 to 5. Freshened and pointing to this race, Franco rides back after being up for all three starts and the starting odds of 6 to 1 are ridiculously high for a horse that just won a similar race (though not graded).
Handicapper Picks
Win: Patch Adams could be a low odds overlay win bet, opening at 5 to 1 on the morning line, and would be a very strong win bet at odds of 8 to 5 or more.
Big Truzz and Colloquial can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
Being as it is likely two of the three contenders will be above fair odds, the free (and easy to use) Dutching tool at Amwager is highly recommended.
Exacta: Box Patch Adams, Big Truzz, Colloquial
Belmont Stakes - Race 13 at Saratoga - Post Time 7:04 PM Eastern
Top Win contender in preference order: Baeza, Sovereignty, Journalism
Early pace scenario: If both Rodriguez and Crudo run as expected, I see no other scenario than the two of them battling for early supremacy and then being susceptible to being passed by Baeza, Journalism and Sovereignty in the late stages. Rodriguez earned a field high 111 figure winning the Wood Memorial when leading from start to finish more than two months ago and as a fresh horse will once again show his early speed. I can’t see Crudo letting Rodriguez get an easy lead as both his wins have come when in front from the start, the same as Rodriguez. Although I expect Crudo to improve on his speed figure pattern of 99 and 100 in his last two races, there’s no reason to think he can change his running style and sit second in the early stages where he has not done so in the past.
Top Contenders: Analyzing three-year-olds at this time of year is about predicting small improvements as much as any other factor. It is with that in mind Baeza appears to be worthy of being the top win contender in this field. Baeza made his career debut at one mile on turf last December, whereas at that time Sovereignty had run three times including victory in the Street Sense Stakes. Similarly, Journalism had run twice and had won at a mile. Then, 11 days after Baeza debuted, Journalism won the Los Alamitos Futurity. After his career debut last December, Baeza finished second in early January behind Rodriguez, who controlled the pace from start to finish while in front. Baeza then improved markedly in his third career start in February, winning by nearly five lengths and earning a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure which at the time was higher than the best figure Sovereignty had earned, and just short of the 106 figure Journalism earned winning the Los Alamitos Futurity. Considering he had run nearly as fast as Journalism and was improving, trainer John Shirreffs entered Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby, where his lack of experience as compared to Journalism was just enough to cost him the win as he rallied to lead by a length with an eighth of a mile to run, then was passed by the more experienced horse. Nevertheless, Baeza improved to a new career-best 107 figure.
Then came the Kentucky Derby, where the experience differences once again proved significant. Baeza began last of 19 in the Derby, and although he was 15th after a half mile and a couple of lengths ahead of eventual winner Sovereignty, Baeza had traffic trouble as he was steadied behind horses with about five-sixteenths of a mile to run. Finding himself seventh with a quarter mile to go while Journalism was third and Sovereignty was fourth, and although closing rapidly from that point to the wire, Baeza could not make up the deficit in the final stages, ending up a neck behind runner-up Journalism and a length and three-quarters behind winner Sovereignty.
Now, a little over one month later, the experience difference is negligible, and Baeza only has to pass, at most, seven horses to win, not 19. We already know that given his pedigree Baeza will have no issue with this distance as he is a half-brother to 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch as well as 2023 Derby winner Mage. With those factors in mind, I believe Baeza can post the slight upset and win this race.
Sovereignty earned a career-best 103 figure in the Derby at the distance of this year’s Belmont, has been rested for five weeks and would be no surprise. Journalism showed what makes Thoroughbred racing so exciting when asserting himself to win the Preakness after getting blocked at the top of the stretch, with a 109 last race figure. We can expect another “A” race by this son of Curlin.
Handicapper Picks
Win: All three contenders (Baeza, Sovereignty, Journalism) have fair odds in the 9 to 5 to 5 to 2 ranges, but ONLY Baeza will be above that threshold, so he is the only one of the three with appropriate return for the risk potential, and can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exactas: Since there’s little value in playing an exacta box consisting of both Sovereignty and Journalism, the bet should consist of keying Baeza with the other two:
Box Baeza, Sovereignty
Box Baeza, Journalism