The Florida Oaks – Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs – Post Time 5 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Abigail, Kokomotion, Time to Dream
Abigail won her second and third starts, both turf routes, at Tampa Bay Downs. She won both easily by three lengths and drew off. On December 27, her last eighth was finished fast at 37.3 miles per hour as measured by GPS, earning her an 82 Equibase speed figure. She improved to an 87 figure on February 13. Her trainer, Miguel Clement, has 25% back-to-back winners, and jockey Samuel Marin has ridden her in both races and rides again. She gets a good post, and she should be stalking behind “early” pace horses, Backgammon, Alone Time, and Laigini. She should get a great trip and has a shot to win her third victory.
Kokomotion is only slightly probable as she has run just once, but she won at Tampa on February 7 at this distance on turf. She earned the same 87 figure as Abigail, and she toyed with the field and put in a powerful rally from last of 12 to win by six lengths. Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez rides. This filly also has a shot.
Time to Dream won her first two races, both on turf, last July. In her second race, the P.G. Johnson Stakes, she won pretty impressively by five lengths. This earned her an 81 figure, rather good for a two-year-old in the summer. She finished third in the Jessamine Stakes in October, then she finished 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes. She has been off for a while, but she is a contender. Consider, though, that she has not run in four months versus just a few weeks for Abigail and Kokomotion.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Abigail and Kokomotion can bet at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Time to Dream is at odds of 3 or 1 on higher bets, but her odds will be lower.
Exactas: Box Abigail, Kokomotion, Time to Dream
The Tampa Bay Downs Derby – Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs – Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Canaletto, Further Ado
For third in trifectas: Redland Rebels, Powershift, The Puma
Canaletto cost $1 million in auction and may make that much from his next few wins. This horse won by eight lengths, “ridden out,” at one mile in his only race, which was faster than the other eight entries, earning a 94 Equibase Speed figure, and he should run even better as the distances get longer. His pedigree is excellent with his sire, Into Mischief, and his dam, Distorted Music, who produced Sandman, the 2024 Arkansas winner. His trainer is Chad Brown, who already has Paladin, a top horse on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby,” who won the Risen Star Stakes recently. I am not concerned that Canaletto is running in only his second start. In the past five years, Brown has a record of 4-3-1 for 12 starters in graded stakes in Derby preps, including Early Voting, Sierra Leone, and Zando. Canaletto is a good horse, and there is only one horse that could keep him from winning this year’s Tampa Bay Downs Derby.
Further Ado won his first two route races, earning a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and winning by 20 lengths in his first race in October. In his second route in November, Further Ado won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, where he earned a 90 figure. He could have run faster, but he just needed to win. He has been off for three months, and trainer Brad Cox has had seven horses of 28 win off layoffs in grade stakes over three years, so his horses are ready. The only difference between Further Ado and Canaletto is the recency.
Handicapper Picks:
Win bets: Canaletto and Further Ado at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.
Trifecta:
Canaletto and Further Ado over Canaletto and Further Ado over Redland Rebels, Powershift, The Puma