Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 31st, 2025
Rehoboth Stakes - Race 6 at Delaware Park - Post Time 3 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Sunday Girl, Socially Selective
For exactas: R Disaster
Sunday Girl has won six of eight career races, including three in a row. Her most recent win came in the identical non-graded Correction Stakes in New York on March 2 under Katie Davis, who has been aboard for five of her six wins and who rides back today. If the field goes as drawn, Sunday Girl should get a great trip in third or fourth as Miss Harriett, just inside of Sunday Girl on the rail, should go for the front from the start as she always does, but she will be hounded by one or two other need-the-lead types in Pleasant Embrace and Drifaros. Coming off 102 and 95 Equibase Speed Figure efforts which are very strong, second only to the 104 figure effort R Disaster put forth when second by a neck in the Vagrancy Stakes four weeks ago, Sunday Girl should earn her seventh career win in her ninth start.
Socially Selective ran in the Vagrancy Stakes four weeks ago as well, the same race R Disaster missed by a neck on the wire in, but she was declared a non-starter after rearing in the gate then being held by the assistant starter as the gate opened. She finished first or second in six of eight races and her best effort ever came at this six furlong trip near the end of December when second to multiple stakes winner Mystic Lake, an effort which if repeated gives her a strong shot at success.
R Disaster is a tough filly but her record of four seconds to go along with four wins makes her tough to bet to win at likely low odds, though she is a must to use on exacta tickets. The difference between her, and Socially Selective, besides lower odds, is R Disaster has lost ground and/or position in the stretch in three of her last four races, although she was beaten inches in her last two. She did put in a big workout six days ago and should run well again, but if in a tough battle with Sunday Girl, or Socially Selective, I think she may settle for second again.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Sunday Girl looks like a good bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more (she opens at 6 to 1).
Socially Selective can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.
When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas:
Sunday Girl and Socially Selective over Sunday Girl, Socially Selective and R Disaster
Sunday Girl, Socially Selective and R Disaster over Sunday Girl and Socially Selective
By playing both exactas above, if Sunday Girl and Socially Selective finish first and second, we win both bets.
Cape Henlopen Stakes - Race 7 at Delaware Park - Post Time 3:29 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Kay Army, Harrow
Possibilities: Lord Eddard Stark, Il Siciliano
It appears there will be significant rain in the Northeast over the weekend, leading to a high probability this mile and one-half marathon scheduled for grass will be run on dirt. If so, the race with 13 original entrants may have just a few. In any case, there are two that stick out and two others which offer value.
Kay Army ships in from New York for Bill Mott off a third place effort in the nine furlong Fort Marcy Stakes four weeks ago, in his U.S> debut and after more than a year away. He should improve markedly off his third place effort when chasing the leader in second for the first mile. He will love the longer distance as he won his last two races in South America at a mile and one-half, on turf, and won on dirt at a mile and three-eighths.
Harrow likes to win, with nine victories in 26 races. He won at this mile and one-half distance on turf last Summer and although he is zero for two on dirt he’s bred to run just as well on the main track. Joseph claimed him for a measly 16K last April and has gotten the horse to win twice as well as come very close in his two other starts since changing barns.
Lord Eddard Stark (20 to 1 starting odds) and Il Siciliano (12 to 1 starting odds) add value to our wagers if they run. There is NO DOUBT Lord Eddard Stark can run this far as he won a stakes race at two miles in December. He was 60 to 1 that day because he hadn’t won since last May but he has won on dirt and turf and could be closing well when others are tiring. Il Siciliano nearly won at this 12 furlong trip on turf in March, his second runner-up effort in a row, and he ran well the previous April on dirt when a head from second. With just one in in 13 starts this year and last he’s not a good win bet unless his odds are very high, but he could get a piece for a profitable exacta.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both Kay Army and Harrow can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more.
We can also consider Lord Eddard Stark and Il Siciliano for small win bets at 10 to 1 or more.
Jersey Derby - Race 8 at Monmouth - Post Time 4:18 PM Eastern
Top Win contender: Candytown
Scheduled for the grass, even if run on dirt, Candytown is the one to beat by far. He debuted on turf in January and at a mile, not an easy task, and missed by a half-length in a field of 10 then moved to dirt (I assume to see if he was good enough if winning to run in the Road to the Derby races) and once again ran well, beaten less than a length for the win and six lengths clear of the next horse. Given two months off to grow up a bit, he returned on April 19 on the grass and was very impressive, moving to a 96 Equibase Speed Figure which is highly likely to be improved upon in his second start off the layoff. He gets the rail and Paco Lopez for Pletcher, who ships down from Saratoga where his best horses are, and no matter if the race is run on grass or dirt, Candytown appears very tough to beat.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Candytown should be considered for a win bet as low as 3 to 2 odds, so even if about 9 to 5 or 2 to 1 would be a great low odds overlay win bet.
Royal North Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:45 PM Eastern
Top Win contender: Earhart
Other contenders: Ready to Jam, Gal in a Rush
Luckily, the rainy weather in the northeastern portion of the U.S. doesn’t appear to go all the way to Toronto, so this race should be run on the grass as scheduled. Earhart appears to have a pace edge and an overall edge in other categories in this stakes race, having just romped when leading from start to finish in her 2025 debut in the Whimsical Stakes four weeks ago on the all-weather main track. She won her debut in a hand ride at seven furlongs last November at Woodbine then followed that up win an even more impressive 11 length win in December over the same track before trying two turns for the first time in the Likely Exchange Stakes in January at Turfway Park in Kentucky where she faded to third after having to battle head-and-head for the early lead for the first seven furlongs, something she had not encountered in her two previous races. Cut back to one-turn earlier this month in the Whimsical, Earhart once again got an easy lead and never looked back and in this race with it appearing no other horse will want to take her on early for fear of compromising their own chances, she should be left alone once again, improving on what is already the best Equibase Speed Figure earned by any horse in the field, ever, 106, in the Whimsical. As a daughter of Siyouni out of a Shamardal mare, Earhart should have no issues running on the grass.
Ready to Jam has won twice on turf, both here at Woodbine, and moves back north after a third of 12 try on grass at Churchill Downs at the shorter distance of five furlongs, where she finished fast from 10th to miss second by less than a length. She won by four lengths the last time she raced on the Woodbine Turf, last July, and she should run better than last month in her second start after more than five months off, so she could be a factor.
Gal in a Rush has finished first or second in 11 of 20 races and like Ready to Jam she was coming back off a five month layoff last month when second to Earhart in the Whimsical. She had run well on grass, with three wins and five runner-up finishes in 11 races, including then missing by a neck in the License Fee Stakes a little over a year ago, so she too could be a factor.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Earhart should be considered for a win bet as low as 3 to 2 odds, so even if about 9 to 5 or 2 to 1 would be a great low odds overlay win bet.
Ready to Jam and Gal in a Rush, whichever is higher odds, can be considered for a win bet at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Earhart over Ready to Jam and Gal In a Rush
Box Earhart and Ready to Jam
Box Earhart and Gal In a Rush
Powder Break Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 6:12 PM Eastern
Top Win and exacta contenders: Candy Gray, Lets Go Koko, Starship Agenda
Candy Gray gets the 10 post in an 11 horse field running a mile on turf, nearly IDENTICAL to three races back when under Zayas (who rides today and who opted to ride her over Lady Cha Cha, also for Saffie Joseph, Jr., who he rode last time out) she made the lead from the start, controlled the pace, and held on by a head. That effort earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure good enough to win in this field and there appears to be no other horses which can keep her from getting to the lead in this field and doing the same thing today.
Lets Go Koko won her most recent race, at this mile turf trip, with a 93 figure, and did so after stalking in second from the start. She has won back-to-back and Gonzalez was up for both of those wins, last June and July, and gets back on as she ships from Tampa to Gulfstream, where she’s earned three of her seven career wins. She has a big shot if Candy Gray makes any mistakes on the front end.
Starship Agenda won strongly on the Gulfstream Park turf course one before last in February, took two months off, then finished fifth of nine in the similar Monroe Stakes a little over four weeks ago. That was a highly rated race, so much so that even finishing fifth the mare earned a 96 figure. Likely to run even better second off the layoff, she rounds out the three main contenders in this field.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Candy Gray can be considered for a win bet at 5 to 2 or more.
Both Lets Go Koko and Starship Agenda can and should be considered for a second win bet (whichever is higher odds) at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Candy Gray, Lets Go Koko and Starship Agenda