Breeders’ Cup Mile – Race 10 at Del Mar – Post Time 7:05 PM Eastern, 4:05 PM Pacific
Top Win Contenders: Notable Speech, Sahlan, Argine
When Notable Speech ran the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile, he ran a big race, finishing third and earning a 122 Equibase Speed Figure. He rallied from eighth to miss third by a head from second runner Johannes (who is also in this year’s race), and another three-quarters of a length from the winner. This year’s Breeders’ Mile was Notable Speech’s first race in North America. Trainer Appleby, as an opportunity for him to be more fit than last year, put him in the Woodbine Mile on September 13, which he won. Notable Speech also earned a career-best 129 figure on August 17, in his earlier effort, the prestigious Prix Jacques Le Marois, missing by one head. Notable Speech has a slight advantage over the top contenders, Sahlan and Argine.
Sahlan and Argine are both running for the first time in the U.S., but that is not an impossible hurdle. Four imported horses won the Breeders’ Cup Mile without a U.S. win from 2020 through 2023. Sahlan won the Group Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on September 7 with a big effort in a 12-horse field. Sahlan rallied from sixth in the stretch to make the lead with eighty yards to go, then by a length over three others in the photo finish. He earned his career-best Equibase Figure Speed of 126, as he won his first race against older horses. Sahlan has 6 to 1 starting odds compared to Notable Speech at 8 to 5.
Argine, a mare, won seven of her career 14 races. braced on August 3, winning by a head in a field of 14. In her May 18 race, fourth among 17 horses, Argine was beaten by a neck, nose, and head. That was her career-best effort, earning a 123 figure. In her first race this year on April 12, she missed by a nose in a field of 14. Her three races in 2025 were all on the same distance as the Mile. If she runs the same race that earned the 123 figure, Argine could make her career win eighth. Historically, over 41 races, 10 female horses have won the Mile. Argine could win, becoming the 11th.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Notable Speech for a win bet at fair odds, at 5 to 2 odds, but Sahlan has fair odds of 3 to 1.
Argine can also be considered for winning bets at 5 to 1 odds.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Race 11 at Del Mar – Post Time 7:45 PM Eastern, 4:45 PM Pacific
Top Win Contenders: Citizen Bull, Full Serrano, Nysos
Baffert has two shotguns in Citizen Bull and Nysos. I think they have identical potential. Citizen Bull, his starting odds are 10 to 1 compared to 8 to 5 for Nysos. Citizen Bull, as a three-year-old, had his career-best effort recently, at the one-mile distance of this race, at Del Mar. He won his only race at this distance of a mile, earning his second fastest figure (107) six months after earning a 112 figure in the Shared Believe Stakes. Compare this to Nysos, who earned 112 in the San Diego Handicap, also early in the summer. I think Citizen Bull’s speed figures can be faster. He could run fast enough to match Nysos’ career-best 117 figure earned in the Triple Bend Stakes, which backs my statement, where both have identical probability. I would bet Citizen Bull. Nysos might win the Dirt Mile, but only his lower odds make him less desirable for a win bet; use him in other wagers in this race.
Full Serrano won the 2024 Dirt Mile at 13 to 1; his starting odds would have been lower than the starting odds of 8 to 1 in this year’s Dirt Mile if he had won in his race on September 27. His trainer ran Full Serrano in the nine-furlong race at Goodwood. The winner of that race, Nevada Beach, is running in the Classic. In Goodwood, Full Serrano finished five lengths behind the third finisher, Privman. Privman won a career-best 113 figure at one mile in the Tokyo City Cup Stakes, increasing from 101 earlier. Full Serrano had earned a 106 figure in his earlier race, and running the same would earn him 118.
Handicapper Picks:
Win: Both Citizen Bull and Full Serrano are considered a win bet at fair odds, at 3 to 1 odds.
Exacta:
Box: Citizen Bull, Full Serrano, Nysos
Box: Citizen Bull, Nysos
Box: Full Serrano, Nysos
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – Race 12 at Del Mar – Post Time 8:25 PM Eastern, 5:25 PM Pacific
Top Win Contenders: Cinderella’s Dream, Diamond Rain, Gezoro, She Feels Pretty
Cinderella’s Dream was fourth after a quarter mile in the 2024 Filly & Mare Turf, but didn’t run quickly enough to get a good position in the next quarter mile and was eighth at the mile, and then fourth and third positions. She weaved through and finally found a clear path, finishing second, half a length behind the winner. As a three-year-old in 2024, she earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure. This year, a far more mature Cinderella’s Dream has improved to 119 figures in three of her four recent efforts. With her jockey, Buick, riding Cinderella’s Dream’s two wins this year, and Buick and trainer Appleby having 18 wins in U.S. graded 1 races in 55 races over five years, and 14 in second. Look for Cinderella’s Dream to win, and he has a very high probability of finishing in first or second.
Appleby also trains Diamond Rain, who is a top-class filly and has a strong chance to win. This filly won both of her 2025 races. She improved on her 111 Equibase Speed Figure (June 25), then earned a 115 in her first North American race, beaten by a head by She Feels Pretty in the E.P. Taylor Stakes on August 16. Appleby’s best jockey, Buick, has ridden Diamond Rain in all seven career races and will be riding Cinderella’s Dream. I am not concerned because Loughnane will ride Diamond Rain. He has 15 wins in 28 races with Appleby. I expect Diamond Rain to be even better in this race, and her 6 to 1 odds are worth considering.
Gezoro is a strong filly who has four wins and two seconds in her career. She won the Grade 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) in a
12-horse field on June 15, then ran as an older horse and finished second in the Grade 1 Prix Vermeille. That earned her a career-best 123 figure, faster than Cinderella’s Dream best. In her last effort, she finished Gezoro 13th of 17 in the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe. But that was against males, when all three of her four were against females. Back to her own gender, Gezoro can rebound and has a shot.
She Feels Pretty is the best of the North American contingent. Except for two short necks and a head, she could have won seven straight graded stakes races. She earned 109 to 113 figures over five straight races. In the E.P. Taylor Stakes on August 16, where she earned a career-best 114 figure when she finished ahead of Diamond Rain by a head. She may not be the best of the fastest like Cinderella’s Dream, Diamond Rain, Gezoro, but She Feels Pretty; always runs at the top of her game.
Handicapper Picks:
Win: Cinderella’s Dream, Diamond Rain for a win bet at fair odds, at 5 to 2 odds.
Gezoro can be considered for win bets at 7 to 2 odds.
She Feels Pretty can be considered for win bets at 5 to 1 odds.
Exacta:
Box Cinderella’s Dream, Diamond Rain, Gezoro, She Feels Pretty