Jockey Club Oaks – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big Aqueduct – Post Time 2:39 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Laurelin
Other contenders: Fionn, Scythian

Laurelin won all five career races before finishing second in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II (Oct 11). Laurelin moves to this lower Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks, and should win because she earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure, 102, winning the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational (August 9), then 103 in the Queen Elizabeth II. Her 103 figure is better than the last race figures among entries in this race. That makes Laurelin the one to beat.

Fionn won three races from May through September, including the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks with an Equibase Speed Figure of 105. Most recently, in Queen Elizabeth II, Fionn came in fourth, three lengths behind second-place Laurelin. She could rebound, but I think her best will be second.

Scythian could also run second or third. Her best figure was 89, but she won her third start after a layoff from November 2024 to August, and she is in a pattern that could run a career best. Also, jockey Civaci recently moved from Woodbine to New York. He has won 22% (on 253) over the past three years, and won two of six races for Mott in the last two weeks since moving to this circuit.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Laurelin to win at 7 to 5 fair odds

Exactas: Laurelin over Fionn, Scythian

Trifectas: Laurelin over Fionn, Scythian over Fionn, Scythian

Knickerbocker Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont at the Big Aqueduct – Post Time 3:39 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Ohana Honor
Also, other win contenders: Signator, Air Recruit

Ohana Honor ran the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes (October 10), where he finished fourth in a 10-horse field. It may seem to some people that this attempt doesn’t appear to give him the best chances in today’s race. However, if he ran that race here, it does. His Sycamore effort earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure and was the fastest last race of the field. Better still, Ohana Honor won a career-best figure, 117, while finishing second in the Grade 2 Man O’War Stakes (May 24) at Aqueduct. He was on a layoff from October 2024 to August, earning a 99 figure in his first race after the layoff, and has been improving since.

Signator may be at high odds in this field. Because he previously finished fifth in a race at odds of 19/1 on September 10. He angled wide on the turn, ninth to fifth, against formidable contenders. Signator won two turf races in March and April following a nine-month layoff, including a classified allowance (about this level), and won a stakes like this one in April. That earned him a 105 figure. He was claimed for $100,000 on September 10, the first time he was in a claiming race. His trainer, Panagiotis, has had five winners in 18 claims over the past few years, and he uses one of his jockeys, Hernandez, who has a 25% win rate (22 for 89) over the last five years.

Air Recruit won two races in four career starts in 2023, including a stakes win. Coming off a 20-month layoff. Air Recruit won his comeback wins, the first on July 11, and then the Oceanport Stakes on August 10. He moved up in class to the Grade 3 Mint Million Invitational on September 6, where he finished ninth. He fits at this lower level in the Knickerbocker Stakes based on his endeavors this year, and is one of the contenders.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Ohana Honor to win at 2 to 1 or higher odds.
Signator and Air Recruit can be considered for wins bet at fair odds at 3 to 1.

Exactas:
Box Ohana Honor, Signator, Air Recruit
Box Ohana Honor, Signator
Box Ohana Honor, Air Recruit