Sands Point – Race 7 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 3:25 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Ready for Candy, Pretty Picture
These two fillies have better chances than the rest of the field. Ready for Candy has run nine races, but only two of them matter. That’s because, in her two races off a layoff from November to August, both wins went to a new trainer, Antonacci. After the layoff on August 17, Ready for Candy ran wire-to-wire, earning a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure. It was not only her fastest race, but the fastest of the other seven horses. In her last race, on September 20, she made a nice move to get the lead at the quarter pole and won by a nose. Her win in August was at a mile and one-eighth, which is the distance she’s back running today. It appears her connections have her ready to win her third straight.
Pretty Picture won both her races, the first (August 3) with a big rally moving from seventh at the eighth pole, to draw off by a length and one-quarter. She stayed in her second race (September 6), even though it was moved to dirt due to the weather. She won easily, improving to a 98 Equibase Speed Figure after a 90 figure in her debut. She is trained by Chad Brown, who is red-hot with 26% wins at the meeting. She has a better chance than the 98 in this race, even better than the 100 for Ready for Candy.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both considered for a win bet at fair odds, with Ready for Candy at 9 to 5, and Pretty Picture at 2 to 1 odds.
Race 8 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Genius Jimmy, Theismann
The key to this race is the temporary rail at 30 feet, which often helps horses with early speed and is hard for closers, who must run farther on the last turn. Genius Jimmy and Theismann both have early speed, but neither can win a hard battle, leaving horses a chance in the second place in the first half of the race. Genius Jimmy and Theismann both have good stamina for the latter part of their races.
Genius Jimmy opens at 15 to 1 starting odds, but I think it will go to about 6 to 1, because he has been 5 to 2 to 5 to 1 in his three wins. He’s won four of 11 turf races and finished second in two others. His last start (August 31) was tough for a $500,000 stakes, and was the worst of his previous four starts. This win in his second race (July 26) earned him a career-best 114 Equibase Figure and the BEST in the field, giving him a chance to make his fifth win and 12th career turf win.
Theismann gets the rail; I’m expecting him to take the lead or second position early in today’s race. In his previous race on September 11, Theismann started from the early second position, the front at the quarter-pole, and held for the win. On August 2, he won wire-to-wire. Equibase figures are trending, 101 last to 106 most recently, indicating steady progress. He had only two routes on the turf course and won both. Trainer Eurton has won 31% (19 for 61) back-to-back wins in turf routes, so that Theismann could get his third straight win.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Both considered for a win bet at fair odds, with Genius Jimmy at 2 to 1, and Theismann at 7 to 2 odds.
Lexus Raven Run – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Delight Claire, Om N Joy, Ragtime
Delightful Claire finished her debut in June at six furlongs. She moved to seven furlongs in her second start, and won easily, widening by nine lengths, earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. She ran in the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes as the 4 to 5 favorite. However, b stumbled at the start (starting fifth) and finished second. The winner in the Prioress is another top three-year filly, Praying, who won her second straight stakes, winning the T.C.A. Stakes at Keeneland three wins ago. Then, Delightful Claire was put on the lead early, tired to third. Today, jockey Rosario, who rode her only win, came here to ride in the Lexus Raven Run, and if Delightful Claire runs a rebound back to her big win in August, at this distance, she would be the best considered to win, and great odds at 10 to 1.
Another strong contender, opening at 15 to 1 starting odds, is Om N Joy. This filly has won FIVE times in EIGHT starts in dirt races. Her last two races have had her two best Equibase Figures in her career, a strong 103, winning in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes on August 30th, with improvement from 97, winning a seven-furlong effort on July 25. That 103 figure came after the May race when she cut back from two-turns to seven furlongs on July 25, then stretched back out to a mile to win the two-turn Torrey Pines. She has a very good shot in the Lexus Raven Run.
Ragtime would have four wins in four career races, except for missing by a nose in the Grade 1 Test Stakes on August 2, earning a 99 figure. She then won the Dogwood on September 20, also with a 99 figure. All four of her races have been at this seven-furlong distance. She got a great post, and she rallied from seventh and sixth after the quarter pole in both of her other races. If she weren’t the morning start 3 to 1 favorite.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Delightful Claire, Om N Joy, and Ragtime. Consider any of the three horses at odds of 3 to 1.
Exacta:
Delight Claire, Om N Joy, Ragtime
Delight Claire, Ragtime
Om N Joy, Ragtime