Whatever happens in the Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup both these races along with last week’s Travers should give us a nice glimpse into what we will have to decipher to make a hard punch as I love to do every year in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With replays and my own personal notes and observations such a vital part of my handicapping I’ll be glued to the TV.

The Cool $1 Million Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar brings together some of the most talented horses in training, and it should serve as a pivotal race on the road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. While Fierceness will no doubt attract some attention, I believe he may be more vulnerable than the other two big players in here. Drawing the rail is not ideal for a colt who has shown some discomfort when pinned down with pressure outside of him, and shipping cross-country to face this group only adds to the challenge. I have always seen him as one who prefers things his own way. I don’t think that is likely in this spot.

That dynamic sets the stage for a fight between Nysos and Journalism. Both colts enter in top form and figure to settle the outcome down the stretch. Journalism has been tested in tough company all season and rarely fails to fire, but I think his campaign has been harder on him than it has on Nysos, who comes in fresher off a slightly lighter schedule. Importantly, Nysos also has the advantage of proven success over the Del Mar surface, his is two for two here, a factor that can’t be overlooked when the pressure is on at 1¼ miles. Yes, Journalism broke his maiden here but two for two trumps one for one.

With Fierceness potentially compromised by his post and circumstances, the Pacific Classic could turn into a head-to-head battle between Nysos and Journalism, with the edge tilting to Nysos as I see things. With his affinity for the surface, a troubled trip win in the San Diego, the prep for this, and Bob Baffert calling the shots, I must lean here. If he runs to his best, he looks poised to stamp himself as the horse to beat going forward. He also has the luxury of coming up a bit short then re-routing to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or Mile. He’d be a top contender in either of those races if he runs well Saturday but doesn’t quite get it done though I think he will.

Journalism also has somewhat of a luxury in not having to win. He can run big, be making up ground and then come back in the Classic having tasted the older competition. Yes, we are all sure they’d love to win the Pacific Classic, and I don’t doubt they’re all in, but I think they would want the Breeders’ Cup Classic more.

Nysos has to answer the 1 ¼ mile question but how he won the San Diego looked to me like it would not be an obstacle. We’ll find out soon enough. He will have to be my single in the late Del Mar sequence. I don’t see how else to get any value out of him wagering. I won’t be at all surprised if Journalism is indeed this good and wins, but I have a feeling the Breeders’ Cup Classic might just set up better for him.

The Grade 1 Cool Million Jockey Club Gold Cup also at 1 ¼ miles is equally intriguing and just as important going forward. I also think the winner here and who I land on here may very likely not be the same horse I land on in the Breeders’ Cup. That remains to be seen, however.

Highland Falls, Sierra Leone and Mindframe are the big three here and one of them is most definitely the winner. No shocker there.

I loved Sierra Leone in the Whitney, and this race sets up even better for him and the added ground is also a help. The pace set up here is better than in the Whitney as well. When all is said and done, I think he will just be too much horse that last sixteenth for them to hold off. Mindframe should get the jump on him but having to dispose of the remaining speed can leave him vulnerable coming to the wire.

I wish I could be more creative in both these spots, but I must call and play it as I see it. That said for me watching these two races for hints and clues is more important to me as I gear up to that big dance later this year where the turf meets the surf.

For an early Thorograph look at some contenders for the Breeders; Cup Classic including their numbers and patterns check out this episode of Past the Wire TV brought to you by AmWager RIGHT HERE