Keeneland – Saturday, October 17, 2026
Race 9 – Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes – 7 Furlongs
The Raven Run brings together a competitive group of three-year-old fillies, and while Mashallah is clearly the one to beat, I think the race sets up for someone to beat her. There is enough speed signed on to make things interesting, particularly at seven furlongs, where early pressure can take its toll late. I land on Concise, an improving filly who was dead game in her last start and looks poised to get an ideal stalking trip. Let’s go through the field.
1. Army’s Marauder (30-1): Finally broke her maiden at Churchill Downs in her fourth start, showing some determination in the process. This is a significant jump in class, and while she may continue improving, she has plenty to prove against this group.
2. Mythical (12-1): An interesting longshot who has already won seven races and has plenty of early speed. She chased Mashallah home in the Prioress at Saratoga and was no match that day, but she has shown enough ability to be dangerous if things fall her way. I wouldn’t be shocked if she outran her odds, although she may be part of the pace that helps set things up for my selection.
3. Hen Party (20-1): Another longshot I wouldn’t dismiss. She finished behind Mashallah and Mythical in the Prioress, making up some ground late, and her running style could be an asset if the pace gets contested. The question is whether she is quite good enough on conventional dirt, but at the price, she deserves some consideration.
4. Coco Connect (50-1): Has won three races and owns a victory at Keeneland, but her better efforts have generally come against lesser competition or on synthetic surfaces. She looks overmatched on paper.
5. Yo Fancy (30-1): Lightly raced filly with only three starts who has shown an ability to finish. She was closing strongly in her last race at Churchill Downs and could benefit from the additional furlong and a lively pace. Needs to improve considerably, but there is some upside here.
6. Percy’s Bar (6-1): A Grade 1 winner over this racetrack who has kept some very good company. Her second in the Test at Saratoga was a solid effort, and she should appreciate getting back on dirt after a disappointing turf attempt. She is a legitimate contender and one of the horses I respect most.
7. A Fine Chardonnay (12-1): Has won twice at Keeneland, including the Beaumont at this distance, and that certainly counts for something. Her last effort in the Dogwood was disappointing, but she has enough back races to be competitive. Not impossible, particularly if the pace comes apart.
8. Conceit (4-1): Comes in having won three straight, including the Dogwood at Churchill Downs, where she showed determination to get up in a tight finish. She has tactical speed, can sit just behind the leaders, and has already demonstrated she can handle seven furlongs. She is improving, and I expect her to get first run on the deeper closers when the real running begins. She is my selection.
9. Mashallah (8-5): The deserving favorite and clearly a very fast filly. Four wins from five starts, including a dominant performance in the Prioress, make her the one everyone has to beat. The question isn’t her ability. It is the trip. With Movie Night, With a Kiss, and potentially Mythical involved early, I don’t see her getting everything her own way. She may face pressure early or midway through the race, and seven furlongs can become a long way home when that happens. She can certainly win, but at 8-5, I am willing to take her on.
10. With a Kiss (20-1): Unbeaten in two starts for Todd Pletcher and has shown plenty of natural speed. She held on gamely in her return at Saratoga, but this is a much tougher assignment. She figures to be involved early, and that could make her an important part of how the race unfolds.
11. Movie Night (9-2): Fast filly who was involved in a three-way photo in the Dogwood, finishing just behind Conceit. She has plenty of speed and enough ability to win this, but her presence adds another dimension to an already interesting pace scenario. I suspect she will have a say in how much work Mashallah has to do. I loved her in The Test and bet her that day. Her worst race ever as she stumbled out of the gate. Not redeeming herself last time was a disappointment.
12. Star Actress (30-1): Bill Mott trainee who was narrowly beaten by With a Kiss in her last start. She has shown some ability to finish and could benefit from a contested pace, but she has only one win from eight starts and faces a difficult assignment from the outside.
The Bottom Line
I am going with Conceit (#8). She is improving, has shown she can fight when challenged, and should get the kind of trip that wins races like this. Mashallah is the horse to beat, but I expect enough pressure from Movie Night, With a Kiss, and possibly Mythical to make her work for it. Conceit should be sitting in the right spot, close enough to strike without having to do the dirty work early. When they straighten away, I expect her to go get the favorite.
The Play: #8 Conceit to win. Mythical and Hen Party are the two longshots I would keep an eye on, particularly underneath in the exotics. At the anticipated prices, neither would shock me.