Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 23 2020

Race 4 at Santa Anita – Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern/ 2:07 Pacific

Tiz Wonderfully starts out a decent sequence of races including two stakes, opening at 5/1. Even if she goes to post at half those odds she’s a KEY BET on the day as she sticks out. Not only does she lead the field in career wins with 4 (in 10 dirt starts) she just beat “open” (not restricted claimers) so this move into allowance ranks for California Breds is NOT a raise in class. Her last race 95 Equibase figure, earned at this distance over the track, tops the field, and she’s got the ability to win leading from start to finish or to sit in third or second early and take over.

Bets:
Win: Tiz Wonderfully to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more, a true KEY BET on the day.

Exactas:
Tiz Wonderfully over Scarlet Heat, Perfect Ice Storm, Charmingslew and Tiz a Master.

Pick 3:
Race 4: Tiz Wonderfully
Race 5: Stubbins, Murad Khan, Cistron, Wildman Jack, Texas Wedge
Race 6: Midnight Garden

Optionally, you can also play the double from race four to race five using the horses above in those races.

Daytona Stakes – Race 5 at Santa Anita – Post Time 5:39 PM Eastern/ 2:39 Pacific

The key to making money in this race isn’t who is going to win, but who will provide the best profit. There are FIVE horses with about the same probability to win but ONLY ONE who is worth betting to win and/or in exactas with the other four. That is Murad Khan, who opens at 101. Beaten a length and one-quarter by Cistron in the identical San Simeon Stakes on March 21, Murad Khan had run huge in his first start at the trip prior to that on February 23. That big win came right AFTER the claim by O’Neill (who saddles three of the seven here) and earned the gelding a 106 Equibase figure, which actually he improved upon (to 108) in the San Simeon. Prat rode him to that win but Bejarano (who is out of town) rode in the San Simeon and I’m not concerned a bit about Abel Cedillo getting on as he’s proven to be a hustler and one of the best in the jockey colony.

Stubbins, Cistron, Wildman Jack and Texas Wedge are all proven stakes winning sprinters and none have knocks except for their starting odds of 3/1 or less.

Bets:
Win: Murad Khan at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas: Murad Khan over Stubbins, Cistron, Wildman Jack and Texas Wedge AND Stubbins, Cistron, Wildman Jack and Texas Wedge over Murad Khan

Pick 3:
Race 5: Stubbins, Murad Khan, Cistron, Wildman Jack, Texas Wedge
Race 6: Midnight Garden
Race 7: Sugar Pickel, Biddy Duke

Optionally, you can also play the double from race five to race six using the horses above in those races.

Race 6 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:12 PM Eastern/3:12 Pacific

Midnight Garden sticks out in this claiming race for fillies and mares who have never won two races. She won her debut with a big rally from sixth of eight to draw off and she’s been off two months since. She fired big fresh once and should do so again and that win earned a 73 Equibase figure, likely to be improved upon in her second career start and the best last figure in the field.

Bets:
Win: Midnight Garden to win at odds of 8 to 5 or higher.

Pick 3:
Race 6: Midnight Garden
Race 7: Sugar Pickel, Biddy Duke
Race 8: Desert Stone, Multiplier, United, Originaire

Ticket 2:
Race 6: Midnight Garden
Race 7: Sugar Pickel, Biddy Duke
Race 8: United, Originaire

Optionally, you can also play the double from race six to race seven using the horses above in those races.

Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:45 PM Eastern/ 3:45 Pacific

Biddy Duke and Sugar Pickel, combined, have a significant amount of the probability to win in this field of nine. Biddy Duke needs the lead to win and has gotten what she wants four times in her 13 race career but was disqualified out of one of those wins ALL three which she wasn’t disqualified from came at this 5 ½ furlong trip she loves and she’s faster early than any of the other need-the-lead types so she should take them out of their game. That leaves just Sugar Pickel, the best closer in the field, to hold off late. Sugar Pickel won at this trip in her first career start last December then ran in two turf routes, badly. She won fresh so coming back from three months off is in her favor as is the fact she gets the rail so can save ground then when the horses chasing Biddy Duke get tired she can tip out and come home strongly.

Bets:
Win: Biddy Duke and Sugar Pickel to win at 2 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Biddy Duke and Sugar Pickel

When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Double:
Race 7: Sugar Pickel, Biddy Duke
Race 8: Desert Stone, Multiplier, United, Originaire

Charles Whittingham Stakes – Race 8 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:18 PM Eastern/ 4:18 Pacific

United, who opens as the 6 to 5 favorite, is a very nice horse who nearly won the Breeders’ Cup Turf last fall and who enters the race off a win in the identical 10 furlong Grade 2 San Marcos Stakes in February. He fires fresh and Prat rides back. Originaire doesn’t have the stakes winning credentials of United but he’s been close, first when beaten a neck in last summer’s Del Mar Derby at nine furlongs on grass then when second in the Grade 1 Mathis Brothers Mile in December. Although he’s never run 10 furlongs there’s little doubt about his breeding to get the trip as this Irish bred colt is by Zoffany out of a Pivotal mare. His last race, on February 29, tipped his hand as he stormed home from last of eight on the turn to win by five, getting the last furlong in just over 11 seconds. The 125 Equibase figure was better than United’s 118 in the San Marcos and opening at 5/2 Originaire is going to be the win bet of the two.

Desert Stone (8/1 morning line) and Multiplier (10/1) are not without a chance and for exotics we’ll use them to split the favorites. Desert Stone won the G2 San Gabriel Stakes in January at nine furlongs on the course with a 107 and was beaten narrowly in the 2018 Mathis Brothers Mile, the same race Originaire finished second in last December. Multiplier has run deceptively good on turf and on dirt to earn close to a half-million, particularly when nearly posting the 33 to 1 upset in the Santa Anita Handicap in March at this distance on dirt.

I’ve got little interest in the other favorite, Rockemperor, opening at 5/2. He ships west for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr. is named to ride but his three U.S. starts to date have been trouble free and he’s not shown anything to make be believe he can win.

Bets:
Win: Originaire at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
A small win bet can be made on Desert Stone or Multiplier at 5 to 1 or higher.

The trifecta offers value over the exacta in this race in which two of the favorites can easily hit the board.

Trifectas: United and Originiare over Desert Stone and Multiplier over United, Originiare, Desert Stone and Multiplier.

Desert Stone and Multiplier over United, Originiare, Desert Stone and Multiplier over United, Originiare, Desert Stone and Multiplier.