The first thing that jumped out at me when looking over the Grade 2 John C Mabee Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday was the lack of pace. If there was ever a race for PACE POINTS this would be it. Mission of Joy, Hopeful and Kentucky Gal all look to me like they could be the one who guns but which one will it be remains a guess.
Medoro looks the class and loves the course. I also think she sits the trip off whoever decides to go, or press can out finish these when the time comes. A mile and an eighth looks just right while also possibly as far she wants to go right now. The main threat in my view is Public Assembly who is still improving and goes second off the bench here. She ran a good second to a nice filly who went wire to wire last out and I think she can go forward here and be very competitive. I lean to Medoro but wouldn’t argue with anyone who liked Public Assembly.
In the Grade 1 Aristocrat Franklin Simpson stakes at Kentucky Downs, I lean to Out on Bail. This New York Bred colt is going to have to show the killer instinct needed to close the deal which has been absent in open company, but I think he is in the right spot to do that. He is turning back in distance and sprinting further than he has before at six and a half furlongs. I think that may do the trick and he can turn the tables on a few in here who have beaten him before. Luis Saez should have him in a good spot.
Spiced Up has won both his turf sprints like a runner finishing strong at Aqueduct and Saratoga. If he brings that again over this different type of course I think he is a serious threat.
In the Grade 2 filly counterpart Music City Stakes Tabiti ships in from some big meets like Glorious Goodwood and Royal Ascot where she certainly held her own. She has lost ground only to re rally on more than one occasion against good fillies so there is talent and heart here and Frankie rides for Ralph Beckett and he has been on fire at the meet. She will get my narrow vote over Jungle Peace who turns back and looks to me like a great fit in here. She has won sprinting and has the bottom you need over this course.
Looks like a day for some good quality racing on both coasts and hopefully we can do some damage.