March 17th Thrilling Picks Select Picks

Wednesday March 17, 2021

Tampa Bay Downs

RACE 1

Must Use #5
Contender #1

#5 Malios has the trainer advantage and looks like the best option for a single
#1 Roller has the jockey advantage

RACE 2
Must Use #5
Contender #6

#5 Crown of Joy has the trainer, jockey and horses beaten% advantages. In past races that match today’s conditions when a horse had the advantage in all those 3 categories they won 100% of the time.

RACE 3
Must Use #5, 8, 9
Contender #4

With the large number of runners, this race will be a bit more difficult to handicap. Horses dropping from a maiden special weight have never won this race type, so we can exclude the chalky option #1 Philosophilcally.

Past winners for this race profile ranked in the top 6 for Avg Speed 2of last 3 races. Including 6 horses in this leg for our PICK5 would stretch our bankroll.

Instead, we believe we can narrow the possible winner down to #5, 8 or 9 based on a model that concentrates on horses beaten%, jockey and earnings rank.

RACE 4
Must Use #3, 5, 7

The significant factors that have been present in past winners for this race type have been last race purse and class. Modeling off these attributes the #7 BetterThenYourEx looks best. The #3 and #5 also are strong contenders.

RACE 5

Must Use #1, 7,
Contenders #9, 12

Wildcards #3, 8

Looking at past races that match these conditions, only 2 of 15 similar races were won by longshots. Those longshots had ranked in the top 3 for last E1 pace. Today’s longshots #3 and #8 meet this qualification. The 1, 7, 9, 12 and the #3 rank in the top 5 for Best Speed Last 3 races.

HOW WE’RE BETTING

RACE 1
$0.50 PK5 5/5,6/5,8,9/3,5,7/1,3,7,12
$0.50 PK3 1,5/5,6/4,5,8,9

RACE 4
$1 DBL 3,5,7/8,9

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