March 17th Thrilling Picks Select Picks

Wednesday March 17, 2021

Tampa Bay Downs


Must Use #5
Contender #1

#5 Malios has the trainer advantage and looks like the best option for a single
#1 Roller has the jockey advantage

Must Use #5
Contender #6

#5 Crown of Joy has the trainer, jockey and horses beaten% advantages. In past races that match today’s conditions when a horse had the advantage in all those 3 categories they won 100% of the time.

Must Use #5, 8, 9
Contender #4

With the large number of runners, this race will be a bit more difficult to handicap. Horses dropping from a maiden special weight have never won this race type, so we can exclude the chalky option #1 Philosophilcally.

Past winners for this race profile ranked in the top 6 for Avg Speed 2of last 3 races. Including 6 horses in this leg for our PICK5 would stretch our bankroll.

Instead, we believe we can narrow the possible winner down to #5, 8 or 9 based on a model that concentrates on horses beaten%, jockey and earnings rank.

Must Use #3, 5, 7

The significant factors that have been present in past winners for this race type have been last race purse and class. Modeling off these attributes the #7 BetterThenYourEx looks best. The #3 and #5 also are strong contenders.


Must Use #1, 7,
Contenders #9, 12

Wildcards #3, 8

Looking at past races that match these conditions, only 2 of 15 similar races were won by longshots. Those longshots had ranked in the top 3 for last E1 pace. Today’s longshots #3 and #8 meet this qualification. The 1, 7, 9, 12 and the #3 rank in the top 5 for Best Speed Last 3 races.


$0.50 PK5 5/5,6/5,8,9/3,5,7/1,3,7,12
$0.50 PK3 1,5/5,6/4,5,8,9

$1 DBL 3,5,7/8,9

Get More Thrilling Picks!


Share This Story!

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on pinterest
Share on email

Related Posts

The Pennine Ridge

Eight three-year-olds are scheduled to race a mile and an eighth on the grass at Belmont in The Pennine Ridge. As we often see in

Read More »