The Alabama 2025

I have seen so many Alabama’s in person since I was a kid it has just become a special race for me. Betting about $1000 on It’s in the Air to upset Davona Dale when I was a kid surely helped.

Let’s look at this year’s running. 

This year’s Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga has no shortage of intrigue, with the mile-and-a-quarter distance sure to test not only class, but stamina and surface preference.
Nitrogen comes in with hype, but there’s a fair question mark on her dirt credentials. Her lone start on the surface came on a sloppy track, making it hard to know if she’ll be as effective over a fast strip. If Saturday’s track is dry and glistening, she’ll need to prove she’s more than just a wet-track wonder. I’m willing to bet against it especially at a short price with so much legit value in the field.

Good Cheer, who faltered last out, has every right to bounce back with firmer footing beneath her. She’s already shown she can be dangerous when conditions play to her strengths, and a quick, honest surface could flip the script. Cox is always deadly turning them around. 

Then there’s Queen Azteca, the puzzle of the field. We know she can win on the big stage—she proved that in the UAE Oaks—but the quality of that field and how her form translates to American dirt remain unknown. If she takes to Saratoga, she could be the shocker, but I would need to see it to believe it. I’ll pass.

La Cara figures to be the pace and on the engine, and she’s likely best when she can hear her own footsteps on a fast track. If she’s allowed to control things early, she might just carry that speed all the way. She has done it before, and she likes this track. But Brad Cox has a two-pronged attack, and while most eyes will be on his headliner, Good Cheer, the “other” Cox filly, Margie’s Intention, might be the value. She’s on the improve, she’s battle-tested, and she’s the type to get ignored on the tote board. Yes, she will have to run faster than she has before, but she is third time Brad Cox, first time at a mile and a quarter and the Louisiana Bred filly can potentially upset this field. This distance can shake things up with these three-year old fillies.

When the gates open, the decision may come down to two fillies for me—La Cara, loose on the lead, or Margie’s Intention, rolling late at a price. In a race where hype, questions, and upside all meet, the Alabama could be decided by which one delivers their best on the day the track is at its truest. As of now I lean to the speed and La Cara.