I’ve been on Hill Road for a while now. Last year, I was one of the few who liked him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — he went off at 60-1 (or thereabouts) and ran third, I thought outperforming expectations. He showed a late punch that made me think he had more in him than most gave him credit for. It was also his first try on dirt. Coming from way back on the Del Mar main track in no piece of cake.

Then in his more recent effort at Kentucky Downs, I was convinced he was ready to win. Everything about the setup, the track, the pace scenario, his fitness and most important in my view the move back to the grass looked favorable. Yet he disappointed. Maybe the trip didn’t go his way, he was far back and inside in traffic, or maybe he didn’t launch as fast as I expected. Regardless, it stung to see him not deliver when I had so much faith and bet accordingly. These are never automatic bet backs for me.

But now, heading into Saturday’s Jockey Club Derby (Invitational) at Aqueduct, I’m willing to give him another chance. Here’s why I believe this could be the moment Hill Road redeems himself:

• His third in the Breeders’ Cup wasn’t a fluke, he was facing top juvenile talent, in a big spot, and he held up well. That shows grit.
• He’s had setbacks (like the Kentucky Downs effort) horses regress, have off days, bad trips and don’t like tracks or conditions, but I believe he’s still progressing underneath the hood.
• In this Jockey Club Derby, I expect him to be reserved early, conserve energy, then launch a big late run. If the pace goes too fast up front, that should help his closing kick.
• On paper, there’s nothing in this field that makes me want to steer away. Hill Road has shown enough flashes to merit respect, and I think he wins it this time.

I still think he is a grass horse. I thought he would handle dirt, and he is fair enough over it and the spots Chad ran him were tough, so he has to feel he is a nice horse. For me this is kind of a make-or-break race for him. Put up or shut up so to speak. I think he’ll put up.

So yes, I’m putting faith in Hill Road on Saturday. I’m banking on that late surge carrying him past the others and into the winner’s circle. If he runs how I think he can, I believe he can win this. Interesting that David Egan rides but that should help the price.