We have The Haskell at Monmouth, The Diana at Saratoga and The San Diego at Del Mar. Three nice races with division implications in each one.
Ladies first. I’ll start at Saratoga in The Diana. First, you can bet this race to win with 0% takeout right here at AmWager so you start ahead of the game.
This race is extremely competitive from every measurable metric you can apply. All Chad Brown’s horses can win. The Euro shipper can win, Ozara at her best can win, it looks like this should be a fight to the finish. I will give a narrow and I mean narrow nod to Portfolio Duration. She was dead game last out after setting the pace, but she doesn’t need the lead to win and can sit the trip the rider wants and get that key jump on these when Prat pulls the trigger. She has some upside and looks to be getting very good at the right time. She will have to run faster than she has to date on Thorograph to win, but she looks like that is a realistic possibility. I think she projects the best trip, and I think in a race this close that could be the difference maker.
On to the Jersey shore. Most people will gravitate to Further Ado and Napolean Solo. I don’t like either one of them. Further Ado bounced off every big figure he has run to date. Will that trend end, maybe, but I would need a reason to buy into that before backing him at a short price or as the favorite. I can’t put my finger exactly on why I do not trust Napolean Solo to duplicate that win in The Preakness. Maybe he is just coming into his own and I am wrong, but I can’t get past the distrust.
That left me primarily considering Iron Honor and The Puma. The Puma was rushed into the majors in my view and held his own but paid the price. Now he is back and I would like to think if they start him here that he is at his best. That can be good enough but the same applies to Iron Honor and he has a recency advantage. I think he can sit a good trip here not too far back for Monmouth and this is where I’ll land.
There is little question Journalism is the one to beat in the San Diego and the pace works right into his hands. He is also reunited with Umberto Rispoli who has never been worse than second with him. I can forgive the Wilson Chute race due to the Wilson Chute and, I believe a mile is too short for his best. He is the most likely winner but sometimes you take a stab of sorts. Iron Man Cal is too slow on paper albeit on the grass, which is the only surface he has raced on, but he is a new horse since being gelded. His works are better than ever, and he is one for one since the ultimate equipment change. I bet this horse at 30-1 in the Breeders’ Cup a few years back and he just missed after getting bogged down inside, Henri Matisse won that race by a nose, so I know he has the class if he handles dirt. He has the breeding to do it so why not at what should be 15-1 or so when all is said and done.
Can we go three for three? Again, why not!