Arkansas Derby — Oaklawn Park
Renegade looks to have this field over a barrel, and the only real monkey wrench in the works is significant improvement from Litmus Test. With Bob Baffert training that horse, meaningful improvement is certainly a possibility — you never discount it. But beyond that scenario, I genuinely don’t see anyone else jumping up enough to win this race. I wish I did. The contest would be more interesting and a better wagering affair for it. But the numbers and the form point one direction, and that direction is Renegade. I just didn’t see enough from Litmus Test last out.
Florida Derby — Gulfstream Park
The Florida Derby is a different story altogether — genuinely competitive, with multiple horses capable of making noise. Commandment and Chief Wallabee stand above the rest of the field, but don’t sleep on The Puma or Nearly.
The Puma is the most intriguing puzzle of the bunch. He’s coming back quickly for what has been a patient barn on the Derby trail, and I’m genuinely not sure what to make of that decision. What I do know is that in his debut he held his own against Chief Wallabee — and that’s not nothing.
Commandment brings more seasoning and experience to the table, but my read is that Chief Wallabee carries more raw talent. That’s a narrow vote, and I want to be clear it’s a tough call for me. When I weigh it all out, I land on Chief Wallabee getting the better of things, with The Puma doing exactly what his connections seem to believe he can: making this genuinely interesting down the lane. I think I would have to use both in any multi-race wagers, especially with The Puma at 9-2 ish.
It is never too early to pay attention and look ahead. Yes, the Breeders’ Cup is a long way off and so much can change and happen, but two very special turf horses run on The Dubai World Cup card. Ombudsman runs in the mile and an eighth Dubai Turf, and I believe he would have won the Breeders’ Cup Turf had he come last year. This is a five-year old who I think is sitting on a monster race and a super year. He should be interesting to watch and see if he is as good as I believe he is.
Calandagan goes in the Longines Dubai Sheema at a mile and a half. We already know how special this one is.
For those so inclined take a look at reserving an early spot in our Kentucky Derby Seminar. I think you’ll be glad you did. All the details are HERE.