March 5th Thrilling Picks Select Picks
FRIDAY MARCH 5th
Below are our selections to shape Doubles, Pick 3/4/5/6s
Must use # 8
Contenders #1, 5
significant factors: Jockey Win% at Gulfstream Park, Jockey Year Win%
Must use #5 (we probably will single)
Contenders #1, 3, 7
significant factors: Trainer, Jockey Advantage
Must use #2, 5
significant factors: E1 pace, Last Purse
Must use #2, 7
Must use #3, 6
Must use #6, 9
significant factors: Turf Pedigree, Best Speed Last 3 Races, Jockey Year Win%
#6 Create A Story has the speed advantage found in 50% of past winners of this race profile.
Must use #2, 3, 6
significant factors: Horses Beaten%, Jockey 1yr Win%, Turf Earnings
Must use #5
Contenders #1, 3
For similar allowance optional claiming races we modeled, half were won by horses with the strongest Jockey Win%. No surprise, today this would be #5 Gatsby with Irad ridding.
In the other half of those races, not won with the top jockey, we identified significant factors were a mix of Turf Pedigree, Avg. E1 Pace and Trainer Win%. This second model points to #1 Speargun and #3 Sir Ollie as the best choices to overtake #5 Gatsby.
Must use #1, 4, 5, 6
#5 Out Baby B Ruth has appropriate L2 pace and Turf Earnings that have helped 100% of past horses win, when they also had a critical factor – the top ranked jockey. Again, it is Irad Ortiz Jr
Based on horses beat %, in the money rank, distance worked and trainer rank, the #1, 4, 6 do match our second model for when past horses WITHOUT the top jockey have won.
Must use # 6, 9
Contenders #1, 10
The data set for this race profile is limited. The significant factors found in past winners were Trainer/Jockey ROI, Off-Turf Earnings, Last Race Class, Earnings at Gulfstream Park.
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