March 5th Thrilling Picks Select Picks

GULFSTREAM PARK

FRIDAY MARCH 5th

Below are our selections to shape Doubles, Pick 3/4/5/6s

RACE 1
Must use # 8
Contenders #1, 5

significant factors: Jockey Win% at Gulfstream Park, Jockey Year Win%

RACE 2

Must use #5 (we probably will single)
Contenders #1, 3, 7
significant factors: Trainer, Jockey Advantage

RACE 3

Must use  #2, 5
Longshot #6
significant factors: E1 pace, Last Purse

RACE 4
Must use #2, 7

RACE 5
Must use #3, 6

RACE 6
Must use #6, 9
Contender #2
significant factors: Turf Pedigree, Best Speed Last 3 Races, Jockey Year Win%

#6 Create A Story has the speed advantage found in 50% of past winners of this race profile.

RACE 7
Must use #2, 3, 6
Contender #7
significant factors: Horses Beaten%, Jockey 1yr Win%, Turf Earnings

RACE 8

Must use #5
Contenders #1, 3

For similar allowance optional claiming races we modeled, half were won by horses with the strongest Jockey Win%. No surprise, today this would be #5 Gatsby with Irad ridding.

In the other half of those races, not won with the top jockey, we identified significant factors were a mix of Turf Pedigree, Avg. E1 Pace and Trainer Win%. This second model points to #1 Speargun and #3 Sir Ollie as the best choices to overtake #5 Gatsby.

RACE 9
Must use #1, 4, 5, 6

#5 Out Baby B Ruth has appropriate L2 pace and Turf Earnings that have helped 100% of past horses win, when they also had a critical factor – the top ranked jockey. Again, it is Irad Ortiz Jr

Based on horses beat %, in the money rank, distance worked and trainer rank, the #1, 4, 6 do match our second model for when past horses WITHOUT the top jockey have won.

RACE 10

Must use # 6, 9
Contenders #1, 10

The data set for this race profile is limited. The significant factors found in past winners were Trainer/Jockey ROI, Off-Turf Earnings, Last Race Class, Earnings at Gulfstream Park.

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