Key Races & Bets for Saturday, August 9th, 2025
Race 8 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:31 PM Eastern
Top win contenders in preference/probability order: Surveillance, Little Ni, Light the Way, Maximus Meridius
This is a good betting race because the 2 to 1 starting favorite, Damon’s Mound, is vulnerable. He was away from the races for 13 months until January, won a restricted stakes in a field of five, and has run poorly since. There are horses in better form and as fast as he is on his best day, led by Surveillance, who drops out of three stakes into a classified allowance and who WON the last time he dropped to this level, in April. The 114 Equibase Speed Figure earned that day wins here if repeated and the veteran horse, with 11 wins and 29 in the money finishes in 47 starts and career earnings of $1.1 million looks ready to add to his record.
Linda Rice trains both Surveillance and Light the Way, who won the race he was claimed by Rice out of in February and who would have won FOUR of his five sprints on dirt since then if not for a nose defeat in April. He comes off a win at Saratoga at a mile and has every right to win back-to-back as he did in April and June, the latter win also here at Saratoga.
Little Ni returned from nine months off to miss by a neck at this level last month and has every right to run just enough better to win and must be respected as a win contender. Maximus Meridius is a four year old who has won six of 17 dirt races and four of seven at this basic six furlong trip, including his most recent race a little over a month ago. He cannot be counted out as a contender either.
Handicapper Picks
Win: If both Surveillance and Light the Way run, because they are an uncoupled Linda Rice entry, I would bet them both, with Surveillance having lower minimum odds for a win bet of 5 to 2 and with Light the Way having minimum odds of 4 to 1.
Little Ni can be considered for a win bet at odds of 7 to 2. Maximus Meridius at 4 to 1.
When we are presented with multiple opportunities for win bets, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Double and Pick 3:
Race 8: Surveillance, Little Ni, Light the Way, Maximus Meridius
Race 9: Opulent Restraint
Race 10: El Cordobes, Nations Pride, Far Bridge
Race 8: Surveillance, Little Ni, Light the Way, Maximus Meridius
Race 9: Opulent Restraint
Race 10: El Cordobes, Nations Pride
Saratoga Oaks - Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern
Top win contender: Opulent Restraint
Other win contenders: Sigh No More, Laurelin
Opulent Restraint gets the rail in this six horse field and is the only horse who really likes to lead early so will be in front from the start and very difficult to catch under Prat, who rode her to victory last fall in the Chelsey Flower Stakes on the circuit.
Sigh No More improved in her second start since importing from Europe to win the Boiling Springs Stakes at Monmouth and if Opulent Restraint can’t go all the way she’s got a decent shot as she continues to improve since coming back from a seven-month layoff and finishing fourth before the win in June.
Laurelin won the Pennsylvania Oaks in June and is undefeated in four starts, including when beating Opulent Restraint by a neck in April. Opulent Restraint has improved more than this filly since then, evidenced by a 104 Equibase Speed Figure in the Belmont Oaks compared to a 98 figure for Laurelin in the Pennsylvania Oaks, but it must be noted the runner-up from that race took a step forward to win the Ontario Colleen Stakes in her next race.
Handicapper Picks
Win: Opulent Restraint can be considered for a win bet as a low odds overlay if her odds are 7 to 5 or more.
Sigh No More can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more. Laurelin has 5 to 2 minimum odds but is unlikely to reach that threshold as she opens at 9 to 5.
Exactas: Box Sigh No More and Opulent Restraint, Box Sigh No More and Laurelin
Doubles and Pick 3:
Race 9: Opulent Restraint
Race 10: El Cordobes, Nations Pride, Far Bridge
Race 11: ALL (eight are entered)
Race 9: Opulent Restraint
Race 10: El Cordobes, Nations Pride
Race 11: ALL (eight are entered)
Sword Dancer Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:44 PM Eastern
Top win contenders in preference/probability order: El Cordobes, Nations Pride Far Bridge
El Cordobes is trained by Charlie Appleby, the same as Nations Pride, and Appleby does not mess around when he sends his horses to North America to race. In the last five years, in Grade 1 races, all on turf, when a horse he ships here last raced in Europe, his record is 11 wins and nine seconds in 28 races. Three also finished third but that’s fairly irrelevant as 20 of 28 won or finished second. Nations Pride won the 2023 Grade 1 Canadian International when shipping from Europe and has won the 2024 Arlington Million (off a second in the Manhattan). El Cordobes just won the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes four weeks ago at Newmarket in England, and is a four year old importing to the U.S. the SAME as Nations Pride was in 2023 when taking the Canadian off a group 1 stakes win in Europe. Prat rides, and the horse’s last race was phenomenal, so opening at 4 to 1 he’s the one to beat, and to bet.
Nations Pride and Far Bridge will go to post at much lower odds than El Cordobes so aren’t nearly as good win bets in terms of return for the risk, but both can win. Nations Pride finished second in the 2024 Manhattan over this course, to Measured Time, a really good horse, and he won the Singspiel Stakes in March before a dud in April. William Buick comes over to ride and that tells us how serious Appleby is, because his record with Buick in North America is 11-6-3 in 22 races going back five years.
Far Bridge is the best of the U.S. based contingent and if either of the two above can’t do it, he can. He’s won nine of 18, all on grass, including the Bowling Green Stakes last month on this course, but in the 2024 Manhattan, the only time he faced Nations Pride previously, Far Bridge finished third while Nations Pride finished second, albeit only three-quarters of a length in arrears.
Handicapper Picks
Win: With about a 40% probability to win each, El Cordobes and Nations Pride have fair odds/minimum odds of 3 to 2 for considering a win bet and still may be a low odds overlay at around those odds, but I think only El Cordobes will be above that threshold.
Exactas:
Box El Cordobes and Nations Pride
Box El Cordobes and Far Bridge
Play the first exacta twice as many times (or for twice the amount) as the second
Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:17 PM Eastern
Top win contenders in preference/probability order: Street View, Practical Lov, Whocouldaskformo
For double and pick 3 tickets, use ALL eight
Street View is hard to resist, opening at 15 to 1 as she just won on June 12 as the 9 to 5 favorite at this seven-furlong trip with the second-best last race Equibase Speed Figure (90) in the field. She has a record this year of 3-1-1 in five races, with her only out of the money finish coming on a muddy track and the trainer who claimed her in March, then got her to run second right off the claim and to win last out, Steven Schauer (formerly an owner) is hitting on all cylinders with a record of 9-5-7 in 35 races since taking out his training license in February.
Practical Lov won easily at Saratoga last month to break her maiden and fits perfectly at this first allowance level so may be tough right back. Next on Stage may not love to win, evidenced by three career wins and eight runner-up efforts, but moving from the rail last month where she finished second, to the outside, where she runs better, gives her a shot of running well particularly as she has two wins and one second place finish in three tries at this seven furlong trip, and her last race earned a 93 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the best in this field.
Handicapper Picks
Win: I would consider a win bet on one or two of these three at 7 to 2 odds or higher, and using a dutching tool to maximize the mathematical edge when betting two horses to win in a race – Street View, Practical Lov, Whocouldaskformo