The fall racing season at Aqueduct or Belmont at Aqueduct as some like to say gets underway this week and Saturday is the $150,000 Floral Park Stakes for fillies and mares. Run at six furlongs on the turf, this race tends to favor horses with early gas, especially when the course opens up firm, as it so often does at the beginning of a race meet.

Few riders embrace the front end quite like Kendrick Carmouche, and he gets the call aboard Luna Louska, a filly who could very well be the speed of the speed. Carmouche is never shy about sending, and Luna Louska’s recent form suggests she has the raw pace to clear early and keep going. She may also get a bit overlooked as her last two wins came at Gulfstream and Indiana.

Aqueduct’s turf has a long history of playing kind to forward types when it’s firm, and Luna Louska lands in the right spot to take advantage. If she breaks cleanly and Carmouche lets her roll, she’ll be dangerous to take them wire to wire.

The main danger in my opinion might come from Risk Threshold, who seems to have a real affinity for the Aqueduct turf. She’s proven capable of handling firm ground and has the tactical style to sit just behind the leaders before launching a run. If Luna Louska goes too fast early or faces unexpected pace pressure, Risk Threshold could be the one picking up the pieces late.

The key handicapping question is whether Luna Louska can shake free on the front end. On a freshly opened, firm course, the answer may well be yes. But Risk Threshold looms as a threat if the fractions get a little too ambitious.

Luna Louska looks poised to make Carmouche’s aggressive style pay off in a speed-friendly spot, but Risk Threshold is the right horse to keep in the mix for exotics. I expect the Floral Park to go through these two and both may offer some value with the three Clement runners in there.