Before the Kentucky Derby points races truly separate the men from the boys, this weekend’s three-year-old stakes offer something just as important: intent. These are proving grounds. Horses looking to say, I belong, before the real heat begins.

Two one-turn miles. Two very different setups. Two opinions I’m willing to stand behind.

Jerome Stakes

Aqueduct – One Turn Mile (Big A chute)

I’m leaning toward upside over experience here with Enforced Agenda, a colt who has done absolutely nothing wrong in his lone start—and may be sitting on something bigger.

Winning a contested mile debut is no small task, especially at Aqueduct, and Enforced Agenda did it the right way. More importantly, he beat Ottinho, who came right back to win and did so looking very much like a stakes-quality horse. That’s a key piece of the puzzle.

This feels less like a “let’s see what we’ve got” move and more like a vote of confidence from George Weaver, who is as sharp as anyone right now. You don’t toss a horse into the Jerome off one start unless you believe.

Yes, he’ll face more experienced rivals, and yes, favorite Balboa is already running Thorograph numbers in the 6 range. But Enforced Agenda popped a 9.1 in his debut, and a three-point forward move at this stage is entirely doable—especially with the switch to Flavien Prat.

Lightly raced. Proven mile ability. Live connections.
That’s a profile I’m willing to back.

Mucho Macho Man Stakes

Gulfstream Park – One Turn Mile

This race sets up very differently.

There’s plenty of speed signed on, and while that’s often dangerous at Gulfstream Park, I’m looking for the horse who can let them go and finish.

That horse, for me, is Tripp’s Promise.

He showed real toughness winning his debut, then ran respectably in two allowance races that didn’t exactly play to his strengths. Today, he gets what he’s been missing: pace—and lots of it.

The track profile may not scream closer, but this is a better setup than it appears on paper. He owns a forward-moving Thorograph pattern, and those often tell the truth before the tote board does.

Veteran Corey Lanerie sticks with him, and while Lanerie hasn’t had much luck historically at Gulfstream, Dale Romans knows this horse—and that matters. Lanerie flies in to ride a horse he understands, not just to fill a seat.

And here’s a little poetic symmetry I don’t ignore:
Tripp’s Promise is by Promises Fulfilled, who kicked off a monster score for me right here at Gulfstream when he wired the Fountain of Youth at a big price. Different horse, different race—but the apple doesn’t always fall far from the tree.

These aren’t Derby races yet—but they’re Derby auditions.

• Enforced Agenda is about upside, intent, and timing.
• Tripp’s Promise is about setup, toughness, and quietly improving form.