The Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park shapes up as a genuinely competitive renewal, and on paper the race has plenty of pace—maybe more than enough. That kind of setup naturally points you toward last year’s winner, White Abarrio, a horse who has already proven he belongs on the biggest stages, including a Breeders’ Cup Classic win.

White Abarrio comes in fresh—perhaps too fresh for some tastes—after being a late veterinary scratch from this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, a decision that stirred no small amount of controversy. Connections also scrapped plans for a seven-furlong prep last month, which naturally raises the question: has he lost a step, or is this simply careful management? Fair question. Still, the facts remain: he loves Gulfstream, he loves the distance, and if the projected pace melts down, he figures to get a picture-perfect setup.

Part of that expected pace comes from Full Serrano, a past Breeders’ Cup Mile winner who didn’t quite fire this year but is far from finished. If he can avoid getting sucked into a destructive duel and work out a clean trip, he’s sneaky dangerous and no throw-out.

Poster who I liked quite a bit last time is one of two in here with upside in my opinion, the other being Disco Time. Poster adds blinkers and should benefit from the pace scenario I see.

Tappen Street, Mika Mika and even Banishing are all capable on their best races. That is a lot of horses you could make a case for this year and we haven’t mentioned Madakat Road who ships in for Bob Baffert who knows a thing or two about placing horses in the right spots and winning big races or Captain Cooke who goes for Todd Pletcher who is a Gulfstream dominator.

As stated in the opening sentence this is a competitive renewal.

All this said, I lean—ever so slightly—toward the up-and-comer Disco Time. The undefeated colt is versatile, professional, and tactical. He can save ground on the rail, bide his time, and crucially, make the first move on White Abarrio. That jump could matter at Gulfstream, a track that can still be kind to forward placement when it counts. His last race was very fast on Thorograph and if he repeats it or perhaps goes forward he would stamp himself as a serious racehorse to be reckoned with this year.