Forward Gal Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:45 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Magic Burst, On Time Girl
Other contenders are Mythical, Sneaky Good
Magic Burst finished her last race on December 21, earning a career best 95 Equibase Speed Figure, moving from fourth to second, after being in the lead from start to finish on November 13 and never having a challenger. She is likely to be faster than other “early” pace horses like Secane, but even if Magic Burst doesn’t make the lead, she can stalk. She is on a trajectory of improvement and should continue, especially with Luis Saez riding.
On Time Girl has won three races and finished second in four races. She won her last race, the Fern Creek Stakes on November 29, earning a career-best 92 Equibase Figure. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has been aboard her in her last three races. On Time Girl started second in the quarter mile in all four races, and she has been in front, no less than a half-length behind the leader after the half mile in all races. She is outside of Scene, Music Burst, and possibly Mythic, so she may be further behind than she has ever been, but she is good.
Sneaky Good is trained by Brad Cox, who also has On Time Girl, and although her figures are 79 and 82, she is undefeated in two races, and if Cox has her in this race, she must be considered. Gaffalione gets on for her third race. Her last five workouts were tandem with On Time Girl, with nearly the exact times. She is going to have higher odds than the other two top contenders and has the potential to upset.
Mythical has won six races, with most of the field winning five races. The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes in August was her only poor race. Her only Grade 3 stakes, the Adirondack Stakes last August, earned a career-best 90 figure. She won her last two by 12 lengths and two and one-half lengths, and in four wins, she won leading from start to finish, but in the Florida Sire Susan’s Girl Stakes on October 18, she was fourth after a quarter mile. If she runs that well, she can be competitive, but if she goes for the lead as she did in her other races, she could be in a pace battle.
Handicapper Picks:
Win bets: Magic Burst at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
I would also consider On Time Girl at 5 to 2 or higher, but I think her odds will be lower.
I would consider winning Sneaky Good at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
Doubles (Races 10 and 11) and in the Pick 3s (Races 10, 11, and 12):
Race 10: Magic Burst, On Time Girl, Mythical, Sneaky Good
Race 11: Storm’s Wake, Sister Troienne, Surprise Ending
Race 12: Connoneer, Nearly
Race 10: Magic Burst
Race 11: Storm’s Wake, Sister Troienne, Surprise Ending, Spirit Doll, Aggressive Line
Race 12: Connoneer, Nearly, Incredibolt, Bravaro
Sweetest Chant Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:15 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Storm’s Wake, Sister Troienne, Surprise Ending
Other contenders are Spirit Doll, Aggressive Line
Storm’s Wake finished third on January 3 in a similar stakes, the Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream Park, won by Sister Troienne. Storm’s Wake had been away for two months, where Sister Troienne ran her last race on November 27. I think Storm’s Wake can improve and turn the tables. She also gets Luis Saez on for the first time. He has only ridden for trainer Brian Lynch in 39 races over the last year, but has won nearly 30% of the time. Storm’s Wake won her first turf route in her second race (September 28), and that was her best race, with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure. With this race being her second start after a layoff, I think she can rebound to win.
Sister Troienne has won four of five races since her debut, including all three of her turf races. She not only won the Ginger Brew, earning a 93 figure, but she also won the Wait a While Stakes on November 27, which was moved to all-weather from turf. Lynch also trains her, and jockey Gutierrez has been up in all her races. She is likely to be the favorite, and she has a big shot to win her fifth straight.
Surprise Ending won her debut, a turf route, with a powerful rally from 10 lengths behind to win by a half-length. Gaffalione gets on for trainer Brendan Walsh, who has 35 wins in 178 races (20%) in the last year. She earned an 89 figure and is improving, although this stakes race is tougher.
Spirit Doll and Aggressive Line get outside posts. Both fillies have shown a style of being third and fourth after a half mile and have to get into good positions. Spirit Doll won the Our Dear Peg Stakes in October and a turf route at Gulfstream, but both may be wide the whole race.
Handicapper Picks:
Win bets: Storm’s Wake, Sister Troienne, Surprise Ending at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, and I would bet two of them at 4 to 1 or higher.
Double:
Race 11: Storm’s Wake, Sister Troienne, Surprise Ending
Race 12: Connoneer, Nearly
Holy Bull Stakes – Race 12 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Connoneer, Nearly
Other contenders: Incredibolt, Bravaro
Note: Butane is likely to scratch.
Connoneer is the fastest horse in the field, as he earned a 99 figure in his second race on November 29, also at seven furlongs. Brad Cox has a good record with three-year-olds in their first stakes over the last few years, five for 19. Connoneer was a $1.1 million auction horse based on his dam, Catch the Moon, who has produced five stakes winners, including 2019 Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded, $5.6 winner Midnight Bourbon, who won the 2021 Lecomte Stakes, finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Preakness, and $1.6 winner Girvin who won the 2017 Risen Star, Louisiana Derby and the Haskell.
Nearly has run only sprints, with two big wins in his second and third career races. His first win came on November 22, winning by nine lengths, then he won by five lengths, ridden out, meaning he could have won easier. He earned a 92 figure, and still has room to improve, so he has a chance with top trainer Todd Pletcher.
Incredibolt won his last race, the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes on October 26, earning a decent 94 figure and showing improvement. Bravaro also won his last, the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, on October 25, earning a 90 figure. Both have a chance to improve in their first three-year-old race.
Win bets: Connoneer at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Nearly at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.