Dwyer Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 3:12 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Sea Strike
The heavy favorite will be Ted Noffey, because he is unbeaten in four races, including the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, there is no way to know if he is going to run as well off a 12-month layoff. Sea Strike won two of four races, including a career-best effort, which came when he won the Curlin Stakes last August, when he won easily by eight lengths. Sea Strike then tried in the Grade 1 Travers, at one mile and one-quarter, when he was second most of the race, including the mile (the distance of this race), and until the eighth to the pole, but he faded to sixth. Now Sea Strike is way down in class, and trainer Chad Brown has put him into five excellent works since the last week of September. Sea Strike earned his best career Equibase Speed Figure, 109, in the Curlin. That figure is better than the 107 earned by Ted Noffey in the Juvenile. Given that Sea Strike’s recent effort was two months versus Ted Noffey’s twelve, Sea Strike is the horse to beat.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Sea Strike at odds of 8 to 5 or higher.
Doubles:
Race 8: Sea Strike
Race 9: Cognition, Bodacious Bay, Intrepids Fantasy
Mother Goose Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 9 at Belmont – Post Time 3:43 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Cognition, Bodacious Bay, Intrepids Fantasy
Cognition is trained by Chad Brown and is ridden by Flavien Prat, who also has Sea Strike. Prat was named Jockey of the Week last week when he earned the Bill Shoemaker Award, winning three Grade 1 stakes last weekend at the Breeders’ Cup. Prat won 14 races from 29 mounts last week. Brown has won three races in the Mother Goose in the last six years, and he could get his fourth win. Cognition just won her first win, in her second race, on October 2, but she had been away for 13 months, and the way she won that race, leading from the start to the wire, was powerful. She is now stretching from seven furlongs to one mile and one-sixteenth (also one-turn), and she gets the rail, and that gives her and Prat the ability to control the race. If Brown is going to put Cognition in this race, in only her third career start and second start off the layoff, I’m not going to question his judgment.
Bodacious Bay just won the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes in September, one of the most important three-year-old races for fillies this summer. She beat Always a Runner by three lengths, who won the Kentucky Oaks in the spring. Bodacious Bay has never been worse than second in five races, and her last race was her best race, which was her first time for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. If Cognition isn’t going to improve, Bodacious Bay is the horse to beat.
Intrepids Fantasy is unbeaten in three races, and her last races were won by an average of 10 lengths. Her dam has two other foals, winning seven of 18 and six of 11, and both other horses won stakes. The only question is whether her competition in her races is as good as Bodacious Bay or even Cognition, but she has been purchased since her last race, and trainer Gary Capuano is still her trainer.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Cognition, Bodacious Bay at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Intrepids Fantasy at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Box Cognition, Bodacious Bay, Intrepids Fantasy
Autumn Stakes (Grade 3) – Race 9 at Woodbine – Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Runaway Again, William T
Runaway Again and William T have run their two best races recently. Runaway Again won the identical Dominion Day Stakes in June, then missed a head in the Seagram Cup Stakes. William T won his two races, the most recent being the Durham Cup Stakes. Both horses have their best Equibase Speed Figures of the other entrants. Runaway Again earned a 116 figure in the Seagram Stakes, and William T earned a 110 figure. One of them should win, and the other is likely to finish second.
Win bets: Runaway Again, William T at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Handicapper Picks
Exacta: Box Runaway Again, William T
Doubles:
Race 9: Runaway Again, William T
Race 10: Quadruple, Reagan’s Flame
Bessarabian Stakes (Grade 3) – Race 10 at Woodbine – Post Time 5:42 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Quadruple, Reagan’s Flame
Quadruple won her first start in the U.S. in her sixth try in the similar Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes, when she finished second one back in the Sweet Briar Too Stakes, and she finished third in her previous start. In the Ontario Stakes, she rallied from fourth (three lengths back) to get the lead from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, and she won easily. That was her best Equibase Speed Figure, 106, and there she has a shot to run similarly.
Reagan’s Flame has won four races in six races this year, including three stakes, two at Woodbine, and her recent win in Presque Isle. Her first of the three wins came in May in the Whimsical Stakes when she earned a 105 figure. Her second back race was the Seaway Stakes, at this seven furlongs, and Quardruple finished third. Her last races earned 95 and 99. However, one of her wins came in seven furlongs, the Seaway Stakes, the same as this race. The only way she is my second-win contender is that Quadruple’s recent race was better.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Quadruple, Reagan’s Flame at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Exactas: Quadruple, Reagan’s Flame over Quadruple, Reagan’s Flame, Creed’s Gold, Ultimate Authority, Purr Factor, Eponine