Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:12 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Eclatant, Echo Sound
Eclatant can rebound from her seventh-place finish in the Ballerina Stakes in August. She had been off for two months before that race, but she had won her last two races after similar layoffs. She won six of nine sprints in her career, including the Grade 1 Madison Stakes in April at Keeneland. That was her best career effort, earning a 107 Equibase Speed Figure. She came back after an eight-month layoff in February from June (2025), winning her first race of the year, then the Madison, then the Chicago Stakes in June. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets aboard again after a different jockey rode her in the Ballerina, and Ortiz, Jr. rode her to wins in the Madison and the Chicago, the only times he rode the filly. If whatever happened in the Ballerina is behind her, and if she repeats her Madison effort in her only start at Keeneland, she is the horse to beat.
Echo Sound has won six races in 10 starts. She also ran poorly in the Ballerina but better than Eclatant and finished fourth. She pressed the leader in second when the pace was sizzling (44.2). One back race, Echo Sound pressed a reasonable pace (45.2), winning the Regret Stakes in July by seven lengths, and she earned a 99 figure. That race was her first race after a 10-month layoff. Last year she also won the Miss Preakness and the Victory Stakes in May and July, earning her career-best figures of 101 and 106. All three of her most recent wins came with Luis Saez. I believe she will be the early leader. She is moving one class down so she can improve.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Eclatant at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.
Echo Sound at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Box Eclatant, Echo Sound
First Lady Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 8 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:44 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Mandanaba, Lush Lips
For exactas: Bless the Broken, Segesta
Mandanaba finished second in a Group 2 stakes race in Germany against males. The winner, Loucas, had the lead from the start on an easy pace, but the filly still rallied well from fourth to second to be a half-length behind, before the winner won by one and a quarter lengths. In this race, no horse will have an easy lead, as two horses will battle for the lead. Those two horses are One More Time and Classic Q, both of whom won their last three races from the start. It’s also likely that a horse like Segesta will be pressing the pace.
Mandanaba is shipping in from Europe; however, she finished second in her only other U.S. race, the June Just a Game Stakes. In that race, the winner, Classic Q, led from the start, but she won’t have an easy lead today. Her trainer, Francis Henri Graffard, has won or placed second with his last three horses in the U.S. this year, including a win with Gezora in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Now, with Mandanaba competing against her own gender and with two recent excellent races, she is the one to beat.
Lush Lips won three straight turf stakes from last October through February. One of those was her only start at Keeneland, when she won the Queen Elizabeth II Cup Stakes last year. She was off for six months before she finished second in the Ellis Park Turf Stakes, a non-graded stakes race in August. That was a way to get her fit for this race. Her last three wins were superb efforts, and she beat Classic Q twice. Even though she has won six of 13 races, she has also finished second five times, making her a top contender to be part of the exacta if she can’t win. I can’t believe her starting odds are 8 to 1.
Bless the Broken tried turf the first time in her 15th start, and she took to it like a duck to water. She won the $1.5 million Ladies Turf Stakes at this mile distance on September 5, when she rallied from fourth early. She won four times in 15 career races with an excellent overall record of 4-4-3. She is in the care of Brad Cox, and if she runs again as she has recently, she will have a shot. She also starts at high odds of 12 to 1.
Segesta missed the 2025 First Lady Stakes by a head, then she won the Jenny Wiley Stakes, a similar race in the spring meet at Keeneland. She hasn’t won in three races since, and her most recent, Ballston Spa, was her worst race in more than a year. She was third at the eighth pole but had no kick. However, she has never finished second in three races at Keeneland. Her trainer, Chad Brown, has a superb history with one-mile turf grade 1 stakes at Keeneland over the last five years, with a record of 7-7-1 in 29 races. On the other hand, given her record is 5-5-1 in 15 races and at 3-to-1 odds, I can’t bet her to win, but she is a must-use horse in the exacta,
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Mandanaba at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Lush Lips at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Bless the Broken at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Mandanaba, Lush Lips over Mandanaba, Lush Lips, Bless the Broken, Segesta
And the opposite: Mandanaba, Lush Lips, Bless the Broken, Segesta over Mandanaba, Lush Lips
The Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Grade 1) – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Q B Rocket
Other contenders: American History, Coach Pope
Q B Rocket won his only race in a professional manner, with an excellent effort, not flashy like Coach Pope. The horses that finished second and fourth both won their next race. Q B Rocket’s sire is Gun Runner, the best sire in the field, with a record for two-year-olds, routes, and graded stakes. He has had eight winners from 34 starters in the past five years, including Locked, who won this race in 2023.
There is only one horse (Title Worthy) in this race that shows any early speed. Since Q B Rocket gets an inside post over Title Worthy, he could have the lead, but I don’t think he needs it. If Title Ready wants the lead, Q B Rocket should be in second early. Q B Rocket has a lot of room to improve. Coach Pope as the favorite will be less than even money, making Q B Rocket worth a win bet.
There are two ways to think about Coach Pope. First, he could be the next Secretariat (I’m being funny). Second, consider how U.K. Basketball fans feel about Coach Pope. Whether or not the horse is the best thing on four hooves, people will pound him in the pools. Coach Pope finished second in his debut, beaten by Gaudreau, who is entered in the Champagne Stakes today at Belmont Park. Coach Pope then stretched out to one mile (around one-turn), winning easily and fast. He could win by the grandstand. On the other hand, his sire, Tapit, has 10 horses of 45 that have won graded stakes at one mile and a sixteenth to one mile and a quarter in the past five years, but his record with two-year-olds in dirt route graded stakes is 0-0-2 in six starts in the last five years. I won’t bet Coach Pope to win at these prohibitive odds, but we should use him in doubles, pick 3 and pick 4 bets.
American History is trained by Todd Pletcher, who won this race last year with Ted Noffey, Locked in 2023, and Forte in 2022. Pletcher’s horses are ready to win in these types of races. American History won his only start by nearly eight lengths, rallying from fifth early, so he doesn’t need to be near the lead and is likely to improve. His odds start at 4 to 1, which I might bet on.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Q B Rocket at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
American History at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Coach Pope has a high probability, but there is no way we should bet on him at less than 1 to 1.