Bricks and Mortar Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 3:56 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Two Out Hero
Other contenders: Doubting Thomas, Big Destroyer
Two Out Hero finished second in the Grade 2 Franklin-Simpson Stakes last month at Kentucky Downs. He moved to fifth at the quarter pole and was a head behind the winner at the eighth pole, but the winner had too much. That was Two Out Hero’s third excellent race. He won before that at the seven-furlong trip, the same as the Bricks and Mortar, and for his third race back he finished second in a two-turn race. He won the Soar Free Stakes one year ago in his second career start. Two Out Hero has never finished worse than second in three turf sprints, and he recently put in a scintillating workout of 47.6, the third best of 73 that day.
Two horses have a shot to finish second or to win possibly. Doubting Thomas cuts back from one mile, where he finished poorly, finishing sixth, but before that he won the Colonial Turf Dash. He has never finished second in five races.
Big Destroyer has run four races in his career, all turf sprints with one win and two seconds. At Kentucky Downs, he rallied from fifth to second by three-quarters of a length in his last race when he faced older horses. He moves back to just three-year-old odds so he could run first or second again.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Two Out Hero at odds of 8 to 5 or higher.
Exacta: Box Two Out Hero, Doubting Thomas
Two Out Hero, Big Destroyer
Hill Prince Stakes (Grade 3) – Race 10 at Belmont – Post Time 5:02 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Caroline St. Beat, Print, Protect and Defend
Caroline St. Beat won the Grade 2 Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs at the longer distance of one mile and five-sixteenths, beating a good field of 10 horses. He has never finished worse than second in five races and is getting better in the fall. He gets Manny Franco, who rode him in his four starts in New York. Caroline St. Beat has the best Equibase Speed Figure of any horse in the field with a 106 earned in the Nashville Derby. His trainer, Miguel Clement, has a record of 10-6-4 in 32 starts where his horses have won their last race in graded stakes and on turf routes. Caroline St. Beat is the horse to beat.
Still, Print and Protect and Defend are good horses, all three-year-olds who still have a chance to improve. Print won his second race in his 10th race, and it was a great effort. He rallied from seventh at the quarter pole and was fifth after the eighth pole before he rallied to win. He gets the rail, so he will save ground, and he should put in a great rally.
Protect and Defend won his first race in his sixth race, when he won by three lengths. Both of his recent two races were at this one mile and three-sixteenths. One race back, Protect and Defend was beaten by a nose at the wire after he got the lead at the final eighth pole. He was second from the start in both races at the quarter pole so that he could be the early leader.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Caroline St. Beat at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Print at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Protect and Defend at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Box Caroline St. Beat, Print, Protect and Defend
California Flag Handicap – Race 9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 8:00 PM Eastern (5 pm Pacific)
Top Win Contender(s): Steak Fries
Other contenders: On the Whim, Boss Sully, Lonesome Stew
This race is more contentious than it appears, with the morning line at 6 to 5 on Lonesome Stew. On turf, Steak Fries has won three turf races and finished second in his other three. Steak Fries won his last two races at one mile and cuts back to six and one-half furlongs. His two races earned excellent Equibase Speed Figures of 104 and 108, and he still has room to improve. Steak Fries could win his third consecutive race and opens at 6 to 1 as compared to 6 to 5 for Lonesome Stew, although Steak Fries has the same probability.
On the Whim has an excellent record of 5-3-3 in 16 turf races, winning both sprints and routes. He won this race in 2024 when he cut back from a route, the same as he is doing today. His last two races were both excellent. He won the California Dreamin’ Stakes this year, the same as he did two years ago before he won the California Flag Handicap. On the Whim is in top condition and also opens at 6 to 1.
Boss Sully won the Siren Lure at six furlongs on the flat turf (not on the downhill turf, as this race is) in May. However, the Siren Lure was not a Cal-Bred stakes like this race, so he moves down a little in class. He won a race at this trip the last time he ran against Cal-Breds, and gets the outside, which suits his early-pace style. Boss Sully won six of 17 turf races, including four of eight on the Santa Anita turf, all were sprints.
Lonesome Stew has won seven of 25 races, including the similar Sensation Star Stakes in March 2025. He took 13 months off after that race and won off the layoff in April at this trip. He tried a dirt race after that and finished sixth. He finished third as the favorite in July with no excuse. In his last race, he stretched and won in a good effort. However, his best race is no better than those of Steak Fries, On the Whim, or Boss Sully.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Steak Fries at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Win bets: On the Whim or Boss Sully at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Steak Fries over On the Whim, Boss Sully, Lonesome Stew
On the Whim, Boss Sully, Lonesome Stew over Steak Fries