Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 23rd, 2024
New York Stallion Series Stakes (Fillies & Mares) – Race 7 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:08 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Athena Beach, Brown Suga Babe
Athena Beach has won six of 12 races and has been second in two others. Her record in races at a mile or less is even better at 6-2-1 in 11 races. Although her first try in a stakes race for NY Breds only (last month) was the worse effort of her career, as she finished fifth, the issue that day was she drew the rail and was sent hard for the lead before tiring. One race before that when she got the five post she led from the start and even though passed after a half mile came back to win. That’s the race we can expect her to run here and that race, if repeated, is good enough to win.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 16th, 2024
Race 2 at Aqueduct – Post Time 12:10 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Swinging Solo, Key Point
Swinging Solo won rather easily in his one and only race five weeks ago. Although it was at Delaware Park, the effort earned a strong 88 Equibase Speed Figure which is going to be improved upon off the physical and mental experience of a race. In that debut, Swinging Solo stalked the pacesetter early then took the lead and never looked back and since then he shipped to New York and put in a spectacular half-mile drill about a week ago which was the third best of 177 on the day (47.4), sending all the right signals for another top effort at this first allowance level.
The Grade 2 Red Smith 2024
Nine horses are set to go in the one mile and three eights on the grass in the Grade 2 Red Smith at Aqueduct. I love turf marathons despite the […]
Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 9th, 2024
Hill Prince Stakes – Race 5 at Aqueduct – Post Time 1:40 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bartlett, Cugino, Deterministic
Among the three win contenders, not only do I suspect Bartlett will go to post at the highest odds, he is also the one to catch, and to beat. In spite of winning four of six in his career including two in a row, he’s never run on turf, he’s never run this nine furlong trip and his wins have all come at Parx. None of that matters, because first of all his last two wins came against older and he’s facing three year olds only, with five of the other six not having faced older and with the one which did (Right to Vote) having just broken his maiden in his last start, which was two months ago. Chad Brown saddles both Main Beach and Right to Vote and as is often the case, Brown’s horses will be bet more heavily than makes sense given their probability. Both of the Brown charges aren’t fast enough to win if they repeat their best efforts, which yielded 99 and 96 Equibase Speed Figures, compared to 102 for Deterministic, 103 for Cugino and 110 for Bartlett.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 12th, 2024
Sands Point Stakes – Race 5 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 2:13 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Courbe, Style Points
For use on exacta tickets: Mo Fox Girvin, Spaliday
Having never run on turf, Courbe may be ignored by some bettors, perhaps for our benefit. This exceptionally well-bred daughter of Quality Road is out of an unraced mare which was bred by the owners, Wertheimer et Frere, who have campaigned some of the best turf horses in the world for decades. Courbe won in her debut last August (2023) on dirt then as you might expect for a talented two year old was put on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. After finishing fourth in the Pocahontas Stakes she dropped into an allowance race and won easily once again. She may have had issues so was off for nine months until this past July when Courbe returned in a stakes at Saratoga on dirt and finished just a neck behind the runner-up, in spite of almost falling at the start. Off that effort she was well-regarded at 7 to 2 in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes in August but once again had trouble at the start, getting pinched back to last. She moved up to third mid-race but then tired. The winner of that race was Gun Song, who came back to nearly defeat Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes last month. Considering this horse’s breeding for turf and quality, that she’s making her third start off a layoff and won her third carer start, and that trainer Todd Pletcher won this race with Wait a While moving from dirt to turf, I think Courbe can post the upset. It may also be important to note the jockey Carmouche rides for the first time and has a very good record for Pletcher – 63 for 250 over the last five years and better still perhaps 11 for 58 in stakes races.