Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 29, 2024
Manila Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) – Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Please Advise, Mattingly
Although only six are entered, there’s only one from the Chad Brown barn, Move to Gold, who may be favored off a nose defeat in the Jersey Derby for weeks ago. He also won the Awad Stakes last October on this course, but he’s no standout based on a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Jersey Derby. Another horse likely to take money is Deterministic, who won the Gotham Stakes on dirt in March before running exceptionally poorly in the Wood Memorial (at 4 to 5 odds) and in the Peter Pan. He’s never run on turf and will be overbet. Neat won the Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland one before his most recent race but ran inexplicably bad in the American Turf on Derby day and there is a question mark about whether he can rebound here, but he may also be bet because he’s dropping from grade 2 to grade 3. Drunk on Sake is completely over matched here coming off a maiden claiming win where he wired the field on slow fractions. He will not have the lead in this field and that takes him out of the mix.
The Wild Applause
Not many will remember Wild Applause or the family she hailed from. It was one of the best grass pedigrees I can recall and she herself could be referred to […]
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 8, 2024
True North Stakes – Race 4 at Saratoga – Post Time 12:31 PM Eastern
Top Contenders: Rotknee
Other contenders: Accretive, Gun It, Gun Pilot
Gun Pilot, who won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby day at 5 to 1, opens as the even money favorite here. I know a morning linemaker’s job is to estimate what odds a horse will be at post time, and as such perhaps Gun Pilot will be the prohibitive favorite at post time but it’s odd because prior to that win, the colt won two allowance races and was runner-up in a non-graded stakes race. OTHER horses in the field have similarly good recent races, except they don’t have a graded stakes win, but they have run AS FAST.
The Grade 2 Penine Ridge
California Cup Oaks – Race 5 at Santa Anita – Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern Top win contender: Grand Slam SmileOther contenders: Asada Fries, Sushi Sticks Grand Slam Smile stretches […]
Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 25, 2024
Pennine Ridge Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A – Post Time 3:39 PM Eastern
Top Contender: Royal Majesty
Others win contenders: White Palomino, Triple Espresso
Royal Majesty debuted in England last October and finished fifth of 11 but was a different horse just three months later when running in Florida, having moved to the barn of trainer Bill Mott. After racing in eighth in the field of 11 for the opening quarter mile, Royal Majesty moved up to seventh, then fifth, then third, before showing a lot of physical and mental talent to win by a neck. Next placed in the Colonel Liam Stakes in March, Royal Majesty could only manage a fifth of nine finish. However, last month at Keeneland the colt showed even more ability than he had in his debut when showing a strong turn of foot going from sixth on the far turn while four paths wide to within a head of the lead with an eighth of a mile to go. Drawing away from the other 10 horses to win by two lengths, Royal Majesty earned a career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure and as it appears he is likely to improve again that makes him a strong contender to win this year’s Pennine Ridge Stakes.