Seabiscuit Handicap – Race 5 at Del Mar – Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern (1:30 Pacific)

Top Win Contenders: Sumter, El Potente

Sumter ran last on October 18, winning the Lure Stakes. The chart caller used the comment, “Reeled in foe,” moving from second with a quarter mile to finish, easily there. Sumter was winning that route off two sprints and before that had been away for seven months, with a 111 best Equibase Speed Figure in the Lure, and is likely to run perhaps his best effort (117 figure) as in October 2024. Jockey Mike Smith rode Sumter to both of those wins and rides him again. Trainer Mandella has 22% wins on horses winning back-to-back in grade stakes races. Therefore, Sumter is a formidable contender.

El Potente has won five of nine turf stakes races. El Potente should be in an early position, second or third, on a great trip, behind Cabo Spirit, who usually leads, but failing to hold the lead in the eighth quarter in his four consecutive races finishing in second or third. El Potente won the Thunder Road Stakes on February 1, earning his best 121 Equibase Speed Figure. El Potente won after a 10-month layoff in June (2024), earning a 116 figure, similar to today. The only time El Potente faced Sumter, Sumter won with El Potente finishing third by just one length.

Handicapper Picks:

Wins bets: Sumter and El Potente are considered a win bet at fair odds at 5 to 2 odds or higher.

Jimmy Durante Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel – Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern (2:30 Pacific)

Top Win Contender: Special Wood

Special Wood won her first two races in July and August in France. She won the distance of this race and earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 93, the best of any horse in this field. She finished fourth in her third start and has been ready to run with three works in preparation. She gets John Velazquez up, and she’s a classy filly, the only one the field with two wins, where the rest are just maiden winners. Her speed figure in August is already better than that of the other horses, and she is likely to improve.

Handicapper Picks:

Win bet: Special Wood to win at 2 to 1 or higher odds.

Hollywood Derby – Race 9 at Del Mar – Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern (3:30 Pacific)

Top Win Contenders: Salamis, Test Score
Contenders for exactas: Maaz, Friendly Confines, Tempus Volat

Salamis won the Gio Ponti Stakes on September 28, which was his career-best effort, off his maiden win after a four-month layoff. In the Bryant Station Stakes on October 25, he had a poor post of 12, where he started last, and he was nervous right after the gate, not prepared. Salamis’ last two wins began early in the fifth, not 12 in his race, but he was only beaten by a nose by the third finisher, Giocoso, who just won the Commonwealth Stakes last Saturday. Without issues at the start today, he should run well again. Also, trainer Brown had the 2020 and 2023 winners of the Hollywood Derby, both of which were races after shipping from the East Coast and with a better post. Without issues at the start today, Salamis can win.

Test Score won two similar stakes in his four recent races; both (earned) wins came at this nine-furlong distance. He won the Belmont Derby on July 4 and the Twilight Derby on October 25, in which he wore blinkers for the first time after two losses. Although he has never won back-to-back races, Test Score’s significant equipment change gives him a chance to win his second successive race.

Handicapper Picks:

Wins bets: Salamis and Test Score are considered a win bet at fair odds at 2 to 1 odds or higher.

Exactas:
Salamis, Test Score over Maaz, Friendly Confines, Tempus Volat
Maaz, Friendly Confines, Tempus Volat over Salamis, Test Score