Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 21st, 2024
Turf Monster Stakes – Race 10 at Parx – Post Time 4:04 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Alogon
Other win contenders: Smooth B, Senbei
There is little doubt in my mind that SEVEN of the horses in this field are “Need the Lead” types who can ONLY win when leading from the start. Those are Traders Luck, Souper Quest, Jean Valjean, Fore Harp, Center Mid Maddie and Boat’s a Rockin. Obviously some of them aren’t as quick as others but it WILL ONLY TAKE three of them to battle for the lead on much faster than average fractions and be susceptible to being overtaken late by any or all of the three horses above, all who have proven capable of coming from off the pace to win. Additionally, one of those need-the-lead types is starting favorite Souper Quest, who is a vulnerable favorite at best.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 14th, 2024
Natalma Stakes – Race 5 at Woodbine – Post Time 3:25 PM Eastern
Win Contender: Mountain Breeze
For second on exacta tickets and third on trifecta tickets: Annascaul, Winterberry, Ready for Candy
When the powerhouse Appleby Stable (for Godolphin) sends a horse to Woodbine for the two year old stakes, this race and the Summer Stakes (race 9), they mean business. Appleby won the race in 2018 and 2021 with La Pelosa and Wild Beauty, who had both finished second in the Sweet Solera Stakes in England the previous month. Marco Botto also won this race, in 2017 with Capla Temptress, off a third place finish in the Sweet Solara Stakes. Mountain Breeze shows the identical pattern, having finished second last month in the Sweet Solara Stakes. She has run in stakes facing winners three times since earning her first win in May, as compared to all but three of the other 12 who enter the race having only faced maidens.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 7th, 2024
Music City Stakes – Race 7 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 4:04 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Pounce, Time to Dazzle
Exacta/Trifecta contenders: Kairyu, Buttercream Babe, Simply In Front, Vive Veuve, Twirling Queen and Toupie.
Pounce and Time to Dazzle both have about the same fairly high probability to win this race. Both are trained by an excellent trainer in Mark Casse and both won their most recent races, which were grade 3 stakes at the distance of one mile. Pounce rallied four paths wide into the stretch and put in a very strong finish to go from fourth to draw off late under jockey Dylan Davis, who rides her back.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 31st, 2024
Nashville Derby – Race 8 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Cameo Performance, Abrumar, Carson’s Run, Cugino
Other contenders: White Palomino, Bellum Justum
Cameo Performance and Abrumar finished first and second, respectively, in the prep stakes for this race at Ellis Park four weeks ago, with Cameo Performance out fishing Abrumar in the final 16th of a mile after Abrumar got a length and one-half lead. Their starting odds of 12 to 1 and 15 to 1 are ridiculously high based on those efforts and I could easily see them finishing first and second once again.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 24th, 2024
Ballerina Handicap – Race 10 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:20 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset
Scylla cuts back from two-turns to this seven furlong sprint and won by seven lengths the last time she raced in a one-turn race. She won the G2 Fleur Di Lis two later then was a strong second in the G1 Clement Hirsch in her most recent race. Mott does exceptionally well with shortening a horse up for a graded stakes, with seven wins from 10 races the past three years. Three of those were with Cody’s Wish but the other four are with different horses, and Scylla, who has finished first or second in seven of eight career starts, should add to those numbers.