Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 13, 2024
My Dear Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bound to Be True, Soupergirl, Obliging, Bullet
This two year old stakes race for fillies drew a field of nine, with ALL nine having won their most recent race, and for seven of those that win came in their debut. All of these two year old fillies can improve, and considering Bound to Be True ran the fastest of the group and opens at 8 to 1, she gets top billing. She showed a lot of maturity rallying from fourth in her debut and gets a contested pace to close into again as up to FIVE of the others may be need-the-lead types. Better still, Bound to Be True was FLATTERED as both the runner-up and third place finishers won their next starts. The 78 Equibase Speed Figure she earned, which is expected to be improved upon, is the best in the field and she has no knocks.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 6, 2024
Indiana Gen’l Assembly Distaff Handicap – Race 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis – Post Time 5:31 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Misread, Stir Crazy, Bolivie, Elounda Queen, Join the Dance
Five of the 11 fillies and mares can win this race but that’s okay to start the last pick 3 because we have a strong single in race 12, the Indiana Derby. There’s some value in the race as well as there is no clear-cut favorite, with Misread opening as the lukewarm choice at 7 to 2. That makes sense given the stakes quality 102 Equibase Speed Figure she earned winning in a field of 11 at Keeneland one race before last in April. Stepped up to the grade 3 level in her only start since, Misread moved up to third after three-quarters of a mile but had no kick and ended up fifth. Still, she ran fast enough to earn a 100 figure, which except for the 103 figure Elounda Queen earned in her fourth place stakes effort when last seen at the end of May, is best in the field. The KEY to Misread getting back to winning form, as well as for Elounda Queen, is the entrants in this non-graded stakes can race on Lasix. This is NOT a comment one way or another about the drug, but is important to note Misread won on Lasix last July, finished fifth one month later without it, won in April (off an eight month layoff) with it, and ran fifth last time out without it. Brian Hernandez, who rode Misread to the first two of her three career wins, gets back on and with a very sharp second best of 75 half-mile workout under her belt Misread looks to be a strong contender.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 29, 2024
Manila Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) – Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Please Advise, Mattingly
Although only six are entered, there’s only one from the Chad Brown barn, Move to Gold, who may be favored off a nose defeat in the Jersey Derby for weeks ago. He also won the Awad Stakes last October on this course, but he’s no standout based on a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Jersey Derby. Another horse likely to take money is Deterministic, who won the Gotham Stakes on dirt in March before running exceptionally poorly in the Wood Memorial (at 4 to 5 odds) and in the Peter Pan. He’s never run on turf and will be overbet. Neat won the Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland one before his most recent race but ran inexplicably bad in the American Turf on Derby day and there is a question mark about whether he can rebound here, but he may also be bet because he’s dropping from grade 2 to grade 3. Drunk on Sake is completely over matched here coming off a maiden claiming win where he wired the field on slow fractions. He will not have the lead in this field and that takes him out of the mix.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 22, 2024
Goldwood Stakes – Race 9 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:56 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Freedom Speaks, Beauty of the Sea, All That Magic
Other win contenders: Hollywood Walk, Queen of the Mud
Freedom Speaks returns from a 14 month layoff but that’s not a concern because this is a sprint. She changed trainers since his last start to the high percentage D’Angelo barn and has been working steadily over the track for her return. She won the nearly half-million Music City Stakes last September a turf sprint, earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the two best (fastest) figures earned by any horse in this field, ever. Although that win came second off a layoff, she had won one month earlier off a layoff, in a turf sprint at this distance at Saratoga in a stakes level allowance with a $115K purse and with a 96 figure. Freedom Speaks also won the only other time she ran fresh in a sprint, in her debut, powerfully by fix lengths on all-weather, another indicator she really likes turf and will fire with a big shot off a layoff today.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 15, 2024
Eatontown Stakes – Race 9 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Sacred Wish, Spirit and Glory
Other win contenders: Tax Implications, Maman Joon
Sacred Wish gets the rail and has the ability to lead from the start or to come from off the pace and win. She wired the field last month on grass in New York when improving off a third place effort following five months off and should take another step forward. She won a stakes race last summer when fifth in the early stages then two races later in November nearly won the similar Grade 3 Pebbles Stakes when finishing fast from seventh to miss by a half-length so she fits perfectly with these and her versatility gives her a slight edge.