Key Bets & Races for Saturday, February 10
Gulfstream Park Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post 4:10 PM Eastern Time
One Go All Go ran the best race of his career just a few weeks ago (1/13/18) when beaten a head on the wire at 30 to 1. That was his 2nd “A” effort in a row over the course as he was just a neck shy of winning before that and both efforts came shortly after the trainer change to his current conditioner. Landeros rode him in both races and is back today so with the best last race Equibase figure (120) to repeat or improve upon and opening at 6/1 odds One Go All Go gets top billing.
There are three more horses that may also warrant win bets, both opening at double digit odds. The first is Channel Maker, who has earned in excess of $445K winning one stakes and placing in two more. Last seen finishing fast from 8th to 2nd in the Hollywood Derby last fall, a grade 1 just like this race, Channel Maker could be flying late to post the upset win. Revved Up also deserves consideration for a win bet at ridiculously high 15/1 odds. He won a 3rd level allowance in November then was beaten just a head for second in the River City Handicap, won by Shining Copper, who beat One Go All Go by a head last month. McGaughey has a very strong 25% win rate over the past two years with horses off this kind of layoff and with just slight improvement needed off a 113 figure in that 11/11/17 effort Revved Up could post the upset. The last of the quartet of contenders to win is March, who finished 2nd in the 2015 Hollywood Derby then went on the bench for 9 months, returning to miss by a head in a three horse photo as if he had never been away. After that came two poor efforts and another layoff but when returning from 11 months off at the end of December he won impressively in a classified allowance and appears to be on the upswing again so must be respected.
The high odds on the four above are because of favorites Heart to Heart (5/2 morning line) and Money Multiplier (3/1 morning line), both who are suspect here. Heart to Heart was badly beaten with no excuse at 3 to 5 in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes last month when failing to show his usual early speed or desire to lead from the start and may have lost a step at the age of 7. Money Multiplier wo his 2017 debut in July off an 8 month layoff and at this 9 furlong trip but his last start of the year, on 11/11, was a non-threatening 4th in a similar Grade 3 Stakes at 8 to 5 and he may need a race before returning to top form.
Win Bets: Bet One Go All Go to win at 3 to 1 or higher, a KEY BET to be sure.
Consider win bets on Channel Maker at 4 to 1 or more, on Revved Up at 5 to 1 or higher and on March at 5 to 1 or higher. Make place bets on any of the four at 8 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Key One Go All Go in exactas in first and in second position with Kurilov, Money Multiplier, March, Revved Up and Channel Maker. (this means to play One Go All go on top with the five horses in second then to play the reverse of that bet as well).
Exactas Box: One Go All Go, Channel Maker, Revved Up and March.
Exactas: One Go All Go, Channel Maker, Revved Up and March over One Go All Go, Channel Maker, Revved Up, March, Money Multiplier and Kurilov. Optionally, play the reverse of that exacta as well because the investment may be worth the risk if Heart to Hear does not finish 1st or 2nd.
Suwannee River Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post time 4:43 Eastern Time
Midnight Crossing beat Elysea’s World in both their most recent races, at 20/1, that win coming in the nearly identical Grade 3 Frankel Stakes. There is NO reason to believe their finish positions will be any different here so the fact Midnight Crossing opens at 6 to 1 compared to 7 to 2 for Elyseas’s World makes Midnight Crossing a very good bet.
Similarly, Ultra Brat beat Dream Dancing last month in the nearly identical Grade 3 Marshua’s River Stakes yet Ultra Brat opens at 6 to 1 compared to 9/2 for Dream Dancing. Additionally the Frankel stakes win earned Midnight Crossing a 109 figure compared to a 102 figure for Ultra Brat, so Midnight Crossing may have an additional edge here.
Kitten’s Roar opens as the 2/1 favorite and considering she’s been away for over two months and has as many 2nd place finishes (7) in her career as wins and gets a possibly poor post is a suspect favorite and a bad win bet although she should be used on exotic tickets (like the exacta) played.
Win bets: Midnight Crossing at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, a true KEY BET on the day.
Consider a win bet on Ultra Brat at odds of 7 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Midnight Crossing, Ultra Brat and Dream Dancing over Midnight Crossing, Ultra Brat, Dream Dancing, Elysea’s World and Kitten’s Roar.
Play the reverse of the exacta above, but do so for half the amount you played the exacta above.
Sam F. Davis Stakes – Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs – Post time 4:52 Eastern Time
This is a very intriguing race from a handicapping perspective, so much so that Navy Armed Guard gets slight preference, even though he has yet to win a race in five starts. The first two were sprints, one on turf and one on dirt, and he ran poorly both times. However in his third career start (in November), Navy Armed Guard was stretched out to a route for the first time, finishing well from sixth to second to earn a career best 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Then in December, Navy Armed Guard was put back on grass (finishing third) before trying blinkers and moving back to dirt, missing by a neck on the wire. For the Sam F. Davis, Navy Armed Guard gets the rail to save ground as well as makes his second start over the track, which often results in improvement. Considering his sire Midshipman won the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and considering his dam produced 11 time winner Discreet Angel, Navy Armed Guard may not win the Sam F. Davis but sure might run better than many people expect him to.
Catholic Boy won the first two starts of his career, both on turf, including the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, before a very good fourth of 14 finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, earning a field high and career best 106 Figure. One month later, Catholic Boy tried turf in the Remsen and dominated by nearly five lengths in a field of 10. Although his figure regressed off the Juvenile Turf to 100, Catholic Boy certainly can improve just as the Remsen runner-up Avery Island did when winning the Withers stakes last week.
Vouch made his career debut around two turns at the end of October, which is no easy task as most horses need a prep race before running well enough to win at a mile or more. Vouch did not need a prep race, as he won by eight lengths and then was flattered when the runner-up came out of the race to win. Moving right into the deep end of the pool, Vouch made the second start of his career in the Remsen, finishing third behind next out Withers Stakes winner Avery Island and improving to a 91 figure. More improvement is expected, not only with experience but because Vouch is a half-brother to 2015 Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate. Additionally, the Stats Race Lens statistic regarding sons and daughters of sire Yes It’s True reveal they have a strong record of seven wins in 16 starts in dirt route stakes races for three year olds in the past few years.
I am taking a stand against two others here likely to be bet rather heavily, as they are question marks. Flameaway has won four of six races, the most recent being the Kitten’s Joy Stakes on turf. His lone dirt route win came in the off-turf Bourbon Stakes in October, in which he earned a 104 figure that would give him a chance to win if he can repeat the effort. Whether he can run that well on a dry track is the question. Similarly, Hollywood Star finished second in the Iroquois Stakes (with a 90 figure) last September at this distance on dirt. He drew a poor post (12) for his next start, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, so his sixth of 12 finish was probably better than it appears on paper. Still, returning from three months off in a graded stakes without a prep suggests he may not be as fit as many of the others that have run more recently.
Win & Place Bet: Navy Armed Guard at 4 to 1 or more.
Exacta Box: Navy Armed Guard, Catholic Boy and Vouch.
California Oaks – Race 7 at Golden Gate – Post time 6:45 PM Eastern
Dr. Ann is shipped north by Doug O’Neill and even though she is moving from maidens to winners and even though her win came in a maiden claimer, the trainer is SO SHARP with this move she gets top billing. O’Neill is 7 for 18 in routes on the all-weather surface at Golden Gate the last couple of years including THREE stakes races, one of them the 2017 California Oaks. If he feels the filly is stakes quality I will not argue, and her field high tying (with Sweetsongofthenile and Mapit) last race 88 Equibase figure that can be improved upon also suggests an effort good enough to win.
Mapit also ships in off a win at Santa Anita but hers came on dirt, not turf like Dr. Ann’s win, and turf is more closely related to all-weather than dirt. Still, the win came in her two-turn debut with the same 88 figure as the top pick and she’s got improving to do for a top trainer and as she’s a daughter of Tapit.
Sweetsongofthenile opens at ridiculously high 15/1 odds based on her 88 figure last out in a maiden win, in a route on the all-weather here at Golden Gate. That win came after nearly four months off and in her first start for Moger, so with the rail and 2nd off the layoff improvement possible she must be given respect at her high odds and as she’s related to a slew of winners in routes on the dam’s side of her pedigree.
Win Bet: Dr. Ann to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Also consider a win and place bet on Sweetsongofthenile at 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas: Dr. Ann over ALL, then also Dr. Ann, Mapit and Sweetsongofthenile over ALL.