Friday, 01 May 2020 11:01

Gulfstream Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 2, 2020

Written by Ellis Starr

Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 2 2020

Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:21 PM Eastern

Kid Bourbon appears to have a decent edge in this race but being as this is a first level allowance and he’s just one-for-seven we have to look at some others as well, at least for double and pick 3 tickets. Kid Bourbon finished fast from fifth to second against slightly tougher (no optional claiming component) last time out and Lopez sticks as he moves from turf to dirt. He earned his only win on dirt in a one turn mile, just like this race, last December and a repeat of that effort could be good enough to get him career win #2.

Beau Luminarie won by seven lengths at the trip one before last over the track then completely regressed to finish ninth of 12 last time out. Saez gets on and the gelding has tactical speed so if Saez gets him to the lead or close from the start he has a shot to get the job done.

Sandino Ruler was well regarded when making his U.S. debut in a stakes at Tampa in March and not disregarded by bettors as he went to post at 13/1. He ran horribly that day but broke in the air at the start and just wasn’t comfortable. Blinkers and Jaramillo go on and his works since have been pretty good. Considering he won 4 of 5 in his native Argentina I would not rule him out at this level.

Bets:
Win: Kid Bourbon to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.
Beau Luminarie to win at odds of 3 to1 or more.
Sandino Ruler to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Box Kid Bourbon, Beau Luminarie and Sandino Ruler

Double: Kid Bourbon, Beau Luminarie and Sandino Ruler in Race 8 with Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl in Race 9.

Pick 3: (ticket one)
Race 8: Kid Bourbon, Beau Luminarie and Sandino Ruler
Race 9: Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl
Race 10: Last Judgement, Network Effect, Red Crescent, Noble Drama and Royal Squeeze

Pick 3: (ticket two)
Race 8: Kid Bourbon
Race 9: Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl
Race 10: Last Judgement, Network Effect, Red Crescent, Noble Drama and Royal Squeeze

Pick 3: (ticket three)
Race 8: Kid Bourbon, Beau Luminarie and Sandino Ruler
Race 9: Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl
Race 10: Network Effect

Honey Ryder Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:53 PM Eastern

Bajan Girl broke her maiden impressively on the Gulfstream Park turf on March 8 when making a sweeping move from fifth to first in the lane. The win came as a result of adding blinkers, but then for some inexplicable reason her connections thought she was a dirt horse and entered her in the Gulfstream Park Oaks 20 days later. Sent to post at better than 99/1 she really wasn’t disgraced as she finished fourth of 12, beaten just a half-length and a nose for second. Back on the turf and with Lopez taking the call this gal is a great fit in this non-graded race on grass for three year olds and deserves top billing based on the maiden win.

Mimina’s Team also broke her maiden on the GP turf recently, in her last start to be exact. She’s on an improving figure pattern and after losing ground late following making the lead in her two starts before last, she had the energy to hang on last time out. She gets a good post and if the top pick doesn’t fire would be no surprise as this level lends itself to horses going from maiden winner to stakes winner.

That’s exactly what Highland Glory did last time out when winning the similar Sanibel Island Stakes on the course. Lopez gets off after riding her to that win and the one before, to ride Bajan Girl, but Saez gets on so it’s mostly a lateral jockey change. She has a good late kick and would be no surprise if winning her second stakes in a row.

Envoutante moves to turf after two dirt races including a six length win last month. She debuted on turf and ran well when beaten a head on the wire for second so there’s no issue with the change in surface. Stunning Sky rounds out a quintet which have a shot to win or to complete the exacta. She closed from last of 11 to get fourth in the race Highland Glory at the end of March and two before that she broke her maiden over the course. The fact Gaffalione gets on for Maker is intriguing as well.

Bets:
Win: Bajan Girl at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Among the other four (Envoutante, Highland Glory, Mimina’s Team and Stunning Sky) I would make a second win bet on the one with the highest odds near post time.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta:
Box Bajan Girl, Mimina’s Team and Highland Glory.

Double: (If you played the pick 3 and if one of the contenders won race 8, there’s little reason to play the double).
Race 9: Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl
Race 10: Last Judgement, Network Effect, Red Crescent, Noble Drama and Royal Squeeze

Pick 3: (Ticket 1)
Race 9: Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl
Race 10: Last Judgement, Network Effect, Red Crescent, Noble Drama and Royal Squeeze
Race 11: Justinthenickoftime, Doc Boy, Gufo and South Bend
Note: The cost of this pick 3 ticket if all horses run, at the $0.50 level, is $50

Pick 3: (Ticket 2)
Race 9: Envoutante, Higher Glory, Mimina’s Team, Stunning Sky and Bajan Girl
Race 10: Network Effect
Race 11: Justinthenickoftime, Doc Boy, Gufo and South Bend


Big Drama Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

Network Effect is likely to go favored off his big runner-up effort on March 28 in an open (not restricted) allowance race. He clipped heels at the start but still managed to be beaten just a half-length by the winner in a big effort. He was overmatched in the G1 Cigar Mile before that in December but won strongly prior to that in a one turn mile race, after runner-up finishes in the Remsen and Nashua so he will love the trip as he did when winning his debut and he has a class edge on many of these.

Last Judgement bombed badly at 5 to 2 in the Sir Shackleton Stakes at the end of the month but won impressively before that in February and following eight months off. Pletcher runners don’t often fair badly twice in a row and if Pletcher has him entered in this stakes he’s got a shot to run back to that 2/7 effort. Similarly, Noble Drama finished a bad sixth in the Challenger Stakes in March but won two in a row including a nice win in a one turn mile race and rebounding to that form could have him earning his sixth career win and third stakes win. Red Crescent was a head behind Noble Drama in the Sunshine Millions Classic at nine furlongs in January and although he has eight career runner-up efforts to go along with seven wins he’s competitive often enough to get respect. Royal Squeeze won this race last year and was returning from three months off when third last month in a race that must certainly was a prep for this so particularly as a horse that loves Gulfstream (9 for 20) rounds out the contenders.

Bets:
Win: Network Effect at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

Exacta:
Network Effect over Last Judgement, Red Crescent, Noble Drama and Royal Squeeze
For a slightly smaller amount, play the opposite exacta which is Last Judgement, Red Crescent, Noble Drama and Royal Squeeze over Network Effect.

Doubles (optional depending on whether the contenders have won one or both of the previous legs of the pick 3):
Race 10: Network Effect
Race 11: Justinthenickoftime, Doc Boy, Gufo and South Bend

Race 10: Network Effect
Race 11: All

Race 10: Last Judgement, Red Crescent, Noble Drama, Royal Squeeze and Network Effect.
Race 11: Justinthenickoftime, Doc Boy, Gufo and South Bend

English Channel Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:57 PM Eastern

Justinthenickoftime runs in this non-graded stakes first off the claim by Maker. I regard Maker very highly at his ability to spot horses, particularly on turf, to claim and turn into stakes winners and he’s done it many times over the past few years. A quick Stats Race Lens query shows me Maker is 9 for 34 at Gulfstream off the claim in turf routes and that helps make the case for Justinthenickoftime, who finished second to a six lengths winner at the end of March and who has shown a decent bit of talent with in-the-money finishes in turf routes in his last five races.

Doc Boy won the similar Columbia Stakes in March at Tampa and the Kitten’s Joy as a two year old. He makes his second start after coming back from five months off, Bravo stays aboard, and he has a big shot to improve second off the layoff and run even better. South Bend keeps missing but not for lack of trying. He’s been second or third in three straight stakes on turf and routinely puts in a nice late run so just needs a bit of luck go final break through at this level on grass, noting he’s already a stakes winner on dirt. Gufo was visually impressive winning in his most recent race on March 27, rallying from last of 11 with a late surge. Ortiz, who is red hot since returning, takes the call and this colt has every right to improve in his second start following three months off.

Bets:
Win: Justinthenickoftime and Doc Boy to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
“IF” Gufo and/or South Bend are near 7 to 2 at post time, I would consider a win bet on the one at the highest odds.


When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Justinthenickoftime, Doc Boy, Gufo and South Bend.