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Ellis Starr's Blog - AmWager

  • 20
    APR

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, April 21

    Primonetta Stakes – Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

    The words "PACE DUEL" do not do justice to what is likely to occur in this six furlong sprint with at least THREE and as many as SEVEN horses having an "EARLY" running style. When the smoke clears the four left standing should be Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn, with a slight chance favorite Chalon can hold on for second or third as she is one of the speedballs.

    Anna's Bandit just won the statebred Conniver Stakes, at 7 furlongs over the track and the cut back is very good for her late kick at the distance of two of her previous five wins. Perez has been up for three wins in a row on the filly and her 12/1 starting odds are begging us to take advantage. Limited View opened up by many lengths through the first seven furlongs in a one turn mile last month, settling for 2nd of 8 at the end. Cutting back makes her a presser just like she was one before that last race when taking a nearly identical stakes to this one, except restricted to three year olds only, rallying under Prado (who rides here) from fifth to get up then flattered when the 3rd horse came back to win. Short Kakes won the Xtra Heat Stakes at Aqueduct three weeks ago from off the pace, her 3rd win in her last four starts, and is another who should really love the early pace scenario. Cairenn rallied from 6th of 9 to win by three lengths two back then won even more easily by five lengths 19 days ago and still have improving to do.

    Win Bets: At 3 to 1 or better I will bet BOTH Anna's Bandit and Limited View to win, adding place bets at 6 to 1 or more. I would consider win bets on Short Kakes and Cairenn at 4 to 1 or more but that appears unlikely to happen. For playing multiple win bets use a "Dutching" tool like the one at Amwager to allocate your betting dollars for the bet profit potential.

    Exacta: Box Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn.

    Trifecta: Box Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes, Cairenn and Chalon.

    Double: Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes, Cairenn and Chalon in Race 6 with Hallie Belle in Race 7.

    Double: Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn in Race 6 with Hawksmoor in Race 7.

    (There is no value in using the two favorites with each other: Chalon in Race 6 with Hawksmoor in Race 7.)

     

    Dahlia Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern

    Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor can win but only Hallie Belle is playable to win, and Hawksmoor may not even hit the board unless Leparoux can get her to relax as Tanya's Gem and I'm Betty G battle for the early lead. Hallie Belle is an exceptionally well bred filly owned by Godolphin who nearly won four in a row between last September and December, winning the Pago Hop Stakes to end the streak. She ran miserably in her 2018 debut at Fair Grounds but may have needed the race and with a very strong workout at Fair Hills on 4/14 I'm counting on that last race being an aberration and the filly rebounding to stakes winning form, opening at 15/1. Hawksmoor appears to hold a class edge dropping out of 3 straight grade 1 stakes in the summer and fall into this non-graded level and can win by repeating either of her runner-up efforts in her last two starts but she is nearly always in front from the start and unless Leparoux can wrangle her back early off the speed duel she could be a bit vulnerable late as she was in her last three races when leading with an 8th of a mile to go, settling for 2nd in the two most recent of those efforts.

    Win Bets: Hallie Belle to win at 3 to 1 or more, a true KEY LONGSHOT BET. Add a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Box Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor.

    Double: Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor in Race 7 with Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor in Race 8.

    Weber City Miss Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel – Post Time 4:40 Eastern

    Blue Union Rags went right through the first allowance condition last out on 3/3 following a strong maiden win, both routes over the track and both since Vargas took over riding. She's still improving, is in the top John Servis barn and can continue her winning ways to earn her first stakes win here in her current form and with a very mature off the pace running style. Layla Noor has only one knock compared to Blue Union Rags and that is she is coming back from nearly five months off whereas Blue Union Rags was last seen seven weeks ago. Layla Noor ran in a dirt route just twice before, winning powerfully at Laurel in November then finishing a decent third in the Demoiselle Stakes in December. Training well for Delacour, who has won with 4 of his last 8 starters coming back from 4 months or more in a dirt route, she is also reunited with Lynch, up for the win but not the defeat, and if she is ready to run as she did last fall at Laurel, she has every right to win.

    Bets: Blue Union Rags to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. Also bet Layla Noor if she goes to post at 3 to 1 or higher.

    Exactas: Box Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor.

    Doubles: Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor in Race 8 with Murad Khan, Ring Weekend, Celebration and Doctor Mounty in Race 9.

    Henry S. Clark Stakes – Race 9 at Laurel – Post Time 5:10 Eastern

    Murad Khan can post the upset although this is a fairly deep field. He opens at 10/1, gets the rail and makes his 3rd start in the U.S. and 3rd off a layoff, so the cycle suggests improvement. He posted the 22 to 1 upset in a tough 2nd level allowance field at Gulfstream Park last month and in Europe won at this mile turf trip three times so now that he's back in winning form he has every right to come right back with another victory. Celebration makes his U.S. debut today, last seen in October in Ireland winning at 7 furlongs on grass in a field of 13. He's never raced a mile but is training forwardly for a very good, underrated trainer in Abbott, and with Leparoux signed on if he's anywhere near his 12/1 odds at post time you can be sure I will be betting him, perhaps heavily. Doctor Mounty is another who opens at double digit odds which make him very playable. He fell on the turn in the Tampa Bay Stakes in February so that race can be ignored but before that he won a classified allowance race with a strong effort. Considering he's trained by Shug McGaughey and Boyce rode him to two of his last three wins, one at Laurel in a race scheduled for turf but moved to the main track, we don’t want to be kicking ourselves after the race for not wagering at least a few bucks on this horse with a decent 5 for 15 career record. Ring Weekend rounds out a quartet of contenders but opens at the lowest odds by far of the group, 7 to 2. He's earned over $1.5 million and has won multiple graded stakes but he is 7 now and although the last time he didn't run in a graded stakes he won prior to that he lost two non-graded stakes attempts with no excuse. He was very wide from a poor 11 post last out so will get a better trip today and could return to top form.

    Win Bets: Any of the three win contenders who might go to post at high odds – Murad Khan, Celebration and Doctor Mounty, at 4 to 1 or more, adding place bets at 8 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Box Murad Khan, Celebration, Doctor Mounty and Ring Weekend.

     

    Doubles: Murad Khan, Celebration, Doctor Mounty and in Race 9 with ALL 11 horses in Race 10.

    Doubles: Ring Weekend in Race 9 with American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code in race 10.

     

    Federico Tesio Stakes – Race 10 at Laurel – Post Time 5:40 Eastern

    American Lincoln decimated a field, albeit only of five horses, but 18 lengths last month at Aqueduct, at this nine furlong trip. That was his 2nd start as a 3 year old and a huge improvement off his previous when 3rd behind Holland Park. Shipping down from New York for Linda Rice, American Lincoln brings Junior Alvarado to ride, up for the win and giving up a whole day of races at Aqueduct. The colt by Street Sense out of a Smart Strike mare is bred to be a good one and any improvement off that last race can get him the win and add to Rice's very high 33% win rate with starters back-to-back in the past year. Holland Park has been off since his sharp win in February before being flattered nicely by American Lincoln. He is bred to be ANY KIND by Tapit out of champion Round Pond, who has already produced a multiple stakes winner in Long River. With an exceptional 2nd best of 75 half-mile drill before leaving McLaughlin's base at Belmont and with local jockey Vargas aboard, Holland Park has every right to improve as markedly today off his last race as American Lincoln did off that same race. Split Verdict improved nicely 2nd time out last month to win at a mile around one turn at Aqueduct and is another shipper, this from the fine Violette barn and bringing New York rider Carmouche along. The colt showed good tactical speed in that win and could be close to the likely hot pace set by possible dueling leaders Not Fake News and Navy Commander so could make the lead in the stretch before the closers get into high gear and he could hang on from there. V.I.P Code is the local runner I'll consider a contender, having just won the Private Terms Stakes, only the 2nd two-turn try of his career and first of the year. The 101 Equibase figure is the BEST last race figure in the field and as Quinones rides back we must respect the colt's chances to run two "A" races in a row.

    Morning line favorite Still Having Fun finished 4th at 3 to 5 with an excuse in the Private Terms so can be used on exacta tickets as he can rebound but he's no standout. Noble Commander tries two turns for the first time but is undefeated in two starts. Diamond King lost the jockey the only previous time he tried two turns but he's won 3 of the other four races in his career. Takedown rallied from far back to win an allowance race over the track and has a shot to get a piece.

    Win Bets: Bet American Lincoln and Holland Park at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher. Consider a win bet on Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code at 4 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code over American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict, V.I.P. Code, Still Having Fun, Noble Commander, Diamond King and Takedown.

    For a smaller amount, play the reverse of the exacta above as well.

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  • 13
    APR

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 14

    Bridgetown Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern

    Nootka Sound ships in from Kentucky for Wesley Ward and as most people know Ward is one of the sharpest turf trainers in North America if not the world, having shipped some of his runners from the U.S. across the pond to win prestigious stakes. Nootka Sound did ship to England last spring for the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and although highly regarded in a field of 22, sent off at 9 to 2, she finished 17th. Honestly, the absence of Lasix which she used for her 5 length win two months earlier in her career debut may have been a factor, or just shipping to Europe, but in any event when brought back in January at Gulfstream Park in a 7 1/2 furlong turf race (and with Lasix) she again ran a huge race to win in a field of 8, then was flattered when the third horse won and the runner-up finished 2nd in her subsequent start. Ward has no problem racing a filly against males, particularly on turf where finesse matters more than size, and with two exceptional recent workouts since leaving Ward's home base in Kentucky and with veteran Pino in the saddle, the filly who can win on the lead or from off the pace may take some beating here, with coming from off-the-pace the better way to win this from her outside post with three or four others bound to want the lead from the start and possibly at any cost.

    Ambassador Jim has never been worse than 3rd in four races including a win when last seen in October and returning more mature as a three year old adds Lasix for the first time. With Rosario out of town, Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call for excellent trainer Clement and the colt's 90 Equibase figure when last seen in the fall matches up perfectly with the 90 best figure Nootka Sound has earned so these two have just about the same chance to win in my opinion.

    Barbarossa is the third horse that is not a need-the-lead type, having rallied from 5th to miss by a neck at the same 7 1/2 furlong trip Nootka Sound ran so well at in her last start. Before that, Barbarossa won by eight at 7 furlongs on turf and after that he finished 3rd in a 75K stakes race at 5 furlongs. This six furlong trip should suit him nicely and so he rounds out the trio we can wager on to win and/or in exactas for a profit.

    Win Bets: Nootka Sound and Ambassador Jim to win at 2 to 1 or more. Depending on their odds near post time use a "Dutching" tool like the free one at Amwager to help allocate your wagering dollars for the best profit.

    Exacta: Box Nootka Sound, Ambassador Jim and Barbarossa.

     

    Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:34 PM Eastern

    In addition to the condition of the track being a factor, with rain predicted, there's likely to be very hot early pace as Battle At Sea, Telekinesis, Seven Trumpets, Magicalmeister and the newly blinkered Gracida may all want the lead from the start and if not the ones that don't get the lead will press the pace and are likely to force fast early fractions.

    My Boy Jack is likely to get the sloppy or muddy track of his dreams in the Lexington Stakes as rain is predicted and considering how easily he prevailed (by four and one-half lengths) in the Southwest Stakes in February in the mud he should run as well. He earned a 106 Equibase figure in that win then followed it up with a 105 figure when beaten just under a length in the Louisiana Derby after making a visually impressive rally EIGHT paths wide on the turn while going from 10th to second before losing some of his steam and that same late kick timed better in this race which ends at the first finish line gets him the win.

    Zanesville may be worth considering for many reasons, not the least of which is he opens at 20/1. His only previous try on a sloppy track came last December and he really showed a liking for the surface with a strong win. He returned to win an allowance race in February and last month in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Zanesville was flying late, ending up fourth and beaten just two lengths at the end with a career best 105 figure on par with My Boy Jack.

    Pony Up finished fast from ninth to end up second in the Jeff Ruby, his best race to date with a 108 figure. John Velazquez gets on for the Pletcher barn which is dominating many of the Derby prep races and the colt has many dirt route stakes winners he calls siblings on the dam's side of his pedigree so could certainly be a factor.

    Although I don't think they can win, both Honor Up and Greyvitos both could be a factor and should be considered for second and third positions on exacta and trifecta tickets.

    Win Bets: My Boy Jack at 2 to 1 or more.

    Also definitely consider a win bet on Zanesville at 7 to 2 or more and a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher, as well as a win bet on Pony Up at 7 to 2 or higher.

    Exactas: My Boy Jack, Zanesville and Pony Up over My Boy Jack, Zanesville, Pony Up, Honor Up and Greyvitos.

    Trifecta: My Boy Jack over Zanesville, Pony Up, Honor Up and Greyvitos over ALL.

    Thors Echo Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6 pm Eastern, 3 PM Pacific

    Make It a Triple opens at 15/1 and is the perfect horse to either post the upset or to split the two logical favorites, Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday. Make It a Triple was a claimer for his entire career until trainer Craigmyle claimed him for 16K in December out of a strong three length wining effort at this basic six furlong trip on dirt. Trying turf for the first time off the claim, and moving up significantly to allowance company, but against California breds only, Make It a Triple finished third, beaten only a length for the win. Improving once more next time out when moved back to six furlongs on dirt on March 17, the horse ran the best race of his career with a 110 figure. Putting that effort in perspective, when Tough Sunday won the similar Sensational Star Stakes one week earlier, he earned a 111 figure and when Edwards Going Left won the similar California Cup Sprint in January, he earned a 113 figure so it is very likely Make It a Triple fits here although his starting odds are 6 to 10 times those of the other two contenders.

    Bets: Make It a Triple to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Box Make It a Triple and Edwards Going Left. Box Make It a Triple and Tough Sunday.

    Trifecta: Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Make It a Triple over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday.

    Also Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Make It a Triple.

    Also Make It a Triple over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday.

    Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes – Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:12 Eastern

    In an incredibly deep edition of this grade 1 stakes on turf for fillies and mares, likely to be run on a turf course other than firm, Cambodia gets slight preference here as a mare that really likes to win, with a 6 for 12 career mark on the grass including back-to-back grade 2 stakes wins last summer. Following that she wasn't disgraced a bit when 3rd of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf then a fourth of 11 finish in the grade 1 Matriarch Stakes before taking the four and one-half months off she comes back from today. From her rail draw Leparoux will use her tactical speed to be anywhere from 3rd to 6th in his 12 horse field in the early stages and from there it's just a matter of showing the kind of kick she showed starting with a win in the Gallorette Stakes on Preakness Day last year to get the job done here.

    Off Limits also put together three straight stakes wins last summer and fall, culminating with a huge effort to win the Grade 1 Matriarch in November. She wasn't 100% tight when returning last month in the Hillsborough Stakes, rallying from 9th of 10 early to be beaten a length and one-half at the end, but in her 2nd start back and with Rosario aboard today as he was for those three straight wins last season, Off Limits is another expected to be rolling in the lane to be in the picture at the end.

    Dona Bruja was a multiple group stakes winner in her native Argentina and won in her U.S. debut last June in the Grade 3 Mint Julep Handicap before two more excellent efforts for a win and a half-length defeat, the latter coming in the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes. Not disgraced when 4th in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II here at Keeneland last fall, she was given four months off and came back with a roar when wiring the field in February to win the Endeavour Stakes under Jose Ortiz, who was riding her for the 1st time. Now having won off the pace and on the lead and with Ortiz riding back, Dona Bruja rounds out a trio that in my opinion has a slight edge on the rest here any of which can finish 2nd or 3rd.

    Win Bets: Any of the three win contenders – Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja, can be bet to win at 5 to 2 or more, with slight preference in that order.

    Trifecta: Instead of an exacta, I think a pair of trifectas are in order because I think at least two of the above mares will finish 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd.

    Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over ALL.

    Then also Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over ALL over Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja.

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  • 06
    APR

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 7

    Carter Handicap – Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

    Skyler's Scramjet and trainer Michelle Nevin are a potent pair, because if you remove the four races when the horse was in another trainer's care and look at only the races where Nevin was the conditioner, Skyler's Scramjet is five for six. His last three races were very consistent and the best of his career, with 116, 111 and 114 Equibase figures including a win last month in the Tom Fool Handicap, in which he beat four of the other 10 entrants in this race. He has won on mud so as it's likely the track will be wet there is no issue and he's won at 6 1/2 furlongs to the 7 furlong trip is of no concern either. Skyler's Scramjet can sit just off the pace of Red Dragon Tattoo and Green Gratto, who is not the same horse that won last year's Carter at 54 to 1, then draw off just as he did last month, improving off his last effort in his 3rd start off a layoff. Awesome Slew is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. Overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, his 3rd of 10 finish was very good. He finished 2nd in the Forego at this trip in August and won the Commonwealth Stakes at this time last year at the distance, his best race ever with a 115 Figure that stacks up the best figure effort Skyler's Scramjet has put forth. With a good outside post to drop in behind horses early and a late running style that should benefit from any duel that develops between Green Gratto & Red Dragon Tattoo, Awesome Slew would be no surprise winning this year's Carter.

    Three other good horses that are a cut below the top two can be used in second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets. They are Army Mule, Favorable Outcome and Do Share.

    Win Bets: Skyler's Scramjet at 9 to 5 or higher. Bet Awesome Slew at 2 to 1 or higher.

    The most efficient way to bet multiple horses to win is to use a "Dutching" tool like the one available at Amwager, which helps allocated your betting dollars for the best return.

    Exacta: Skyler's Scramjet and Awesome Slew over Skyler's Scramjet, Awesome Slew, Army Mule, Favorable Outcome and Do Share.

    Trifecta: Skyler's Scramjet over Awesome Slew, Army Mule, Favorable Outcome and Do Share (in both second and third position).

     

    Pick 3:

    Race 8 – Skyler's Scramjet, Awesome Slew

    Race 9 – ALL seven runners

    Race 10 – Old Time Revival, Enticed

     

    Wood Memorial – Race 10 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern

    Old Time Revival appears to have a pace edge in this year's Wood Memorial, perhaps a significant one, as he can use his early speed to get to the rail and control the tempo from the start. Heartfullofstars showed some early speed last month in California, but that was on a sloppy track and in a highly restricted maiden race, the same kind of race Restoring Hope won in February. King Zachary also showed some speed early last month, in his two turn debut, and Catch Twenty Two adds blinkers, but Old Time Revival has a positional edge on all of them except Heartfullofstars. Last month in the one-turn Gotham Stakes, Old Time Revival had to battle head and head for the lead for the opening half-mile in 46.4 yet still was clearly second by four lengths over the next horse as Enticed drew off. There can be a significant difference in how a one-turn race is run compared to a two-turn race and that is why I think Old Time Revival can improve off his last race career best 108 Equibase Figure effort to win the Wood.

    There's nothing bad I can say about Enticed, except he has 63 Road to the Derby points and doesn't need to win to go to Louisville next month. He won the two-turn Jockey Club Stakes in November, ran horribly in his three year old debut in the Holy Bull, then rebounded to win the Gotham with a career best 113 figure effort. He can sit behind the leaders and pounce just as he did last month and would be no surprise if winning, but from a betting perspective there's little profit to be made if he does.

    King Zachary is an improving type who was ridden out to a near eight length win in his first route and can improve but would need more than logical improvement to go from the 96 figure effort last month to the 110 figure effort the winner of this race is likely to put in. Restoring Hope is shipped east by Baffert to avoid his stablemate Justify and he won easily in his 2nd route and last start with a 108 figure. However, he's been off since that February 2 race and one has to wonder why when others have run since. Still, the figure is the same as Old Time Revival earned and he does have tactical speed so I will use him on exacta tickets played.

    Win Bets: Old Time Revival at 2 to 1 or more.

     

    Exacta: Old Time Revival and Enticed over Old Time Revival, Enticed, King Zachary and Restoring Hope.

     

    Play the same exacta in reverse but for half the amount.

    Blue Grass Stakes – Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:23 Eastern

    Kanthaka is my pick to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, having only 10 points coming into the race and needing to finish second or first to go on to the Derby. He's got the talent to go with the incentive, having already won a graded stakes for three year olds, the San Vicente Stakes, in February. That wasn't a points race because it was a sprint (7 furlongs) but he proved very capable in drawing off by three lengths and earning a 114 Equibase figure which is the BEST figure of any horse in this field. Trying two turns for the first time one month later in the San Felipe Stakes, against two of the division leaders in Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie (who is likely to miss the Derby but who is pointing for the Preakness), Kanthaka broke awkwardly and immediately went down to one knee, nearly losing his jockey. From then on out the strategy would be to let the horse settle and see how he did as most horses have no chance to win after such a start. Kanthaka relaxed in fifth in the field of seven and as the top two drew off in the stretch by six lengths, he showed his interest and ability in rallying for third.

    The early pace of this race could be faster than average, with California Night having earned both his wins leading from start to finish, the last when wearing blinkers for the first time. Sporting Chance, one position inside California Night, is not likely to relinquish his position in the early stages either, while Good Magic and Flameaway, both drawn far outside, will have to use some tactical speed to save ground before the first turn. Considering Kanthaka draws the four post, jockey Leparoux can drop in and watch as all the pace manifestations take place in front of him, something jockey Prat was unable to do with Kanthaka in the San Felipe because of the bad start. From there, if the pacesetters begin to tire, Kanthaka can grab the lead in the stretch and hold off the deeper closers such as Blended Citizen and Arawak. For anyone that questions why jockey Prat is not here that is not of concern, because when Leparoux rode full time in California (where trainer Hollendorfer is based) in 2013/14, Hollendorfer and Leparoux won 11 of 42 races together including 4 stakes races from 14 tries. Also, we must recall trainer Hollendorfer prepared Battle of Midway marvelously last year for his three year old campaign, with the colt finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby, third in the Kentucky Derby and winning the Breeders' Cup Mile in November.

    Blended Citizen will be ignored by many bettors because his win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks last month was on an all-weather surface rather than dirt, and he ran poorly in his three dirt races. However, those were at the beginning of his career and he is a DIFFERENT HORSE now. The addition of blinkers for the Jeff Ruby was the key to a strong finish with a 109 figure and we must recall trainer O'Neill won the 2017 Blue Grass with Irap at 30 to 1 so I will believe this colt has what it takes to win. Back to the concern about the surface, not only is Blended Citizen a different horse now than when he ran on dirt in his first three starts, his breeding is as good for dirt as for all-weather on turf as he is a half-brother (same dam) to 2017 Kentucky Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee, who also finished second in the 2016 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. With 22 points to date, Blended Citizen needs to finish second or first to insure he has a spot in the Derby.

    Good Magic will be favored by bettors as the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. He had been off for four months when he finished a non-threatening third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month and he can improve, but there is no guarantee of it as some horses just aren't the same at three as they are at two. With 34 points to date, Good Magic also needs to finish first or second to or he may not be able to enter the Derby.

    Arawak is the wild card, recently purchased privately and sent to the barn of Doug O'Neill (trainer of Blended Citizen) after finishing third in the Jeff Ruby. This will be his third start of the year, often a peak effort in a horse's form cycle, and he adds blinkers which notably helped his stablemate win the Jeff Ruby last month. With only four points to date, I believe the instructions given to jockey De La Cruz will be go get Arawak mid-pack about half way through the race then pass as many horses as you can. As such, and with starting odds of 30/1, I will be at least wagering a few bucks on him to win, place and show so I have no regrets if he pulls off an "Irap" and wins the race at 30/1 as happened last year.

     

    Bets: Kanthaka at 5 to 2 or more. Blended Citizen at 4 to 1 or more. Arawak at 10 to 1 or more.

    Add place bets at 6 to 1 or more. Show bets at 10 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Kanthaka, Blended Citizen and Good Magic over Kanthaka, Quip, Marconi, Blended Citizen, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Flameaway, Machismo and Arawak.

    Santa Anita Derby – Race 9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6:30 Eastern, 3:30 Pacific

    I am going to pick Core Beliefs to post the upset in the Santa Anita Derby and, at the least, to run a lot better than his odds will suggest he can run. After two third place finishes in sprints in January and February, Core Beliefs stretched out to two turns and improved tremendously, drawing off by three lengths with a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. This was on par with the 108 figure Justify earned winning a two-turn race three days later. Core Beliefs was sired by Quality Road, whose progeny have proven themselves at top levels just as the sire did. Using Stats Race Lens to get a feeling for pedigrees that have produced classic talent, it is easy to find the sons and daughters of Quality Road have won 8 of 39 stakes races for three year olds on dirt over the past few years, including 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner and multiple stakes winner Abel Tasman. Although the 109 figure effort Core Beliefs put forth last month is well short of the 118 figure Bolt d'Oro earned in the San Felipe, the colt has potential to improve markedly off the effort in his second route and he will have to do just that because he needs to finish first or second to get the points required to run in the Kentucky Derby. Using his early speed as he did when victorious over the track last month and with the only other horse likely to be on or near the early lead being Justify, Core Beliefs should be in the thick of the action from start to finish.

    Except for an exceptionally wide trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall when finishing third, Bolt d'Oro has made no mistakes, winning all four of his other races. In last month's San Felipe Stakes, Bolt d'Oro showed his battle- hardened nature once again when battling head-and-head the length of the stretch with McKinzie before losing by a head. After a steward's inquiry, McKinzie (who will miss the Kentucky Derby) was placed second and Bolt d'Oro was moved up to first. Being as he had been away from the races for four months prior to that, the 118 figure earned was exceptional. With 64 points on the "Road to the Derby" leaderboard, a spot in the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby is virtually assured so Bolt d'Oro may only need a good effort to keep fit to move on to the big dance next month. However, in his current form, even his "B" level race may be good enough to win.

    Justify has been impressive in both his races to date. He won his debut by almost 10 lengths and then by six and one-half lengths last month in his second career start and in spite of coming out of the gate a bit tardily. Like Core Beliefs, this will be the second two-turn start for Justify and improvement off his 108 figure last out can be expected. Justify was sired by Scat Daddy, who may have three horses in the starting gate in Louisville next month if Justify finishes first or second to gain his first points on the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" leaderboard. The other two Scat Daddy colts include Flameaway and the most impressive winner of the U.A.E. Derby last weekend, Mendelssohn. Certainly, if the hype surrounding how big, strong and fast Justify may be is warranted, he will win the Santa Anita Derby and create a lot of buzz in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

    Win Bets: Core Beliefs to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Core Beliefs over Bolt d'Oro and Justify then ALSO Bolt d'Oro and Justify over Core Beliefs

    Pick 3:

    Race 9 – Core Beliefs, Bolt d'Oro, Justify

    Race 10 – Midnight Crossing, Thundering Sky

    Race 11 – Spectator, Midnight Bisou

    Santa Anita Oaks – Race 11 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:30 Eastern, 4:30 Pacific

    Spectator and Midnight Bisou tower over the rest in this year's Santa Anita Oaks, the only different between the two being Midnight Bisou is a stakes winner and Spectator is not. Spectator won the first two races of her career last year in easy fashion, including the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes in August by five lengths, then finished third in the Del Mar Debutante before taking six months off to mature. She returned three weeks ago in a highly rated allowance race versus OLDER horses and gamely won by a neck with a 108 Equibase figure, higher than the 105 figure Midnight Bisou earned winning the Santa Ysabel stakes 15 days earlier. With Javier Castellano staying around for this race following the Santa Anita Derby, and with this gal having improving to do and then some in her 2nd start off the layoff, Spectator is the one to beat in this year's Santa Anita Oaks. Midnight Bisou has the rest of the probability to win the race, the other seven entrants not nearly as fast or as proven in top company. She missed by a nose in the first two starts of her career to an exceptional filly in Dream Tree then in her three year old debut she won the Santa Ynez in January before a ridden out (easy) win in the Santa Ysabel last month. Smith has been up for both wins and rides her back and she has one potential edge on Spectator in that she has run two turns and Spectator has not.

    Win Bets: Spectator and Midnight Bisou (one or both) at odds of 3 to 2 or better

    Exacta: Spectator and Midnight Bisou over Spectator, Midnight Bisou and Thirteen Squared (who finished a non-threatening second to Midnight Bisou last month)

    Read more...
  • 29
    MAR

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 31

    Honey Fox Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:47 PM Eastern

    Stormy Victoria put in an incredible late kick when winning the South Beach Stakes in late January over the course, making up 10 lengths in the last 3/16 of a mile. Before that she closed from last of nine to miss by a pair of necks in the similar Grade 3 My Charmer Stakes, won by On Leave, who also can win but who will likely go to post at lower odds. With a field high 116 Equibase figure from that win which is better than the 113 On Leave beat her right before that, Stormy Victoria gets slight preference among a quintet of contenders. On Leave has won two of her last three, the My Charmer at this mile turf trip in December and a stakes at Laurel last September. She's only run two poor efforts in the past year, both when in Grade 2 stakes, so in this Grade 3 another "A" effort looks to be forthcoming and if it is she may earn her eighth career win. Res Ipsa goes for her third straight win, the only knock being the last two came in September and October. She has only run in a stakes once before, before the two wins, and it was a poor effort but she matured a lot in the fall and both wins came with Leparoux in the saddle, who rides her again, so she must be considered a contender. Lull won the similar G3 Autumn Miss Stakes at this mile trip in October, but that was against three year olds only. She did beat older in September sprinting on the turf at Kentucky Downs and finished a fine second in the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes in July. Overmatched when last seen in a grade 1 stakes, she should appreciate the class relief ad could rebound to top form. Glory to Kitten is another very competitive mare, with six wins and three runner-up finishes in 14 starts. What's odd is she was claimed out of a win for 30K 13 months ago over the track then took six tries to move through the first allowance condition but was narrowly defeated in two of those races. Claimed once again, on1/15 out of a win at this mile trip on the GP turf, Glory To Kitten ram the best race of her career last out to run her record on the GP turf to five-for-five and she's on a pattern to run even better here, likely at a decent price.

    Win Bets: Stormy Victoria at 5 to 2 or more.

    Consider smaller win bets on any of the other four contenders, at these minimum odds, with preference to whichever horses are the highest odds at post time: On Leave 5 to 2, Res Ipsa 7 to 2, Lull 7 to 2 and Glory to Kitten 4 to 1.

    Exacta: Box Stormy Victoria, On Leave, Res Ipsa, Lull and Glory to Kitten

    Consider a trifecta box among the same five horses.

    Pick 4:

    Race 11 – Stormy Victoria, On Leave, Res Ipsa, Lull and Glory to Kitten

    Race 12 – Take Charge Paula, Cache, Princess Warrior

    Race 13 – Hi Happy, Bigger Picture, Sadler's Joy

    Race 14 – Storm Runner, Hofburg, Mississippi

     

    Pan American Stakes – Race 13 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:56 PM Eastern

    Hi Happy is one of three that can win, the other two Sadler's Joy and Bigger Picture. The rest are a bit overmatched compared to these three and of the three Hi Happy is likely to offer the best value for win bets. In his native Argentina, Hi Happy crushed a field of 14 by four lengths at a mile on turf, no easy task, then finished second in a group 2 stakes before reeling of four straight group 2 or group 1 stakes wins. Given 11 months off to acclimate to the U.S. he started his career in California and was so highly regarded he made his stateside debut in a grade 2 stakes. He didn't do much in his first three U.S. starts but when stretched out to 12 furlongs for the first time in the U.S. he ran his best race in nearly 18 months, leading late and missing by a neck on the wire to grade 1 winner Hard Aces. Rested again, this time for 8 months, and sent to the Pletcher barn, Hi Happy came back in February in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes and missed by a neck and 3/4 of a length in a huge effort he is very likely to improve off 2nd off the layoff. Considering his last two efforts yielded 111 and 112 Equibase figures which compare favorably to the 111 to 115 figures Bigger Picture earned in grade 1 and 2 stakes in the last year, Hi Happy can add to his $1 million earned to date and give the Pletcher barn yet another win at the meeting. Sadler's Joy earned a 112 figure winning the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes last summer at Saratoga, which is on par with Hi Happy's last two efforts. However, Sadler's Joy did run even better in his most recent effort when rallying from far back, 12th and last, to win the Mac Diarmida Stakes on the course four weeks ago with a 122 figure. Repeating that effort, the rest are running for second, but in spite of having won 6 of 15 on the turf and 2 of 3 on the grass at GP, Sadler's Joy can be beaten although we cannot for a second discount his chances so he must be used on any exotic bets we make including exactas and pick 3/pick 4 tickets. Bigger Picture is the third millionaire in the field, having gone over the mark with a win in the Grade 3 Connally Stakes when last seen at the end of January at this marathon 12 furlong trip. He has only run on the GP turf once previously, missing in a four horse photo in the 2017 Mac Diarmida, which Sadler's Joy won last month. Jose Ortiz rides Bigger Picture exceptionally well, up for three of his last four wins, and so we should expect this veteran to be in the thick of the action on the wire.

    Win Bets: Hi Happy at 2 to 1 or more.

    In the unlikely event Sadler's Joy or Bigger Picture is anywhere near 2 to 1 at post time, bet the one at the highest odds to win as well. Use a "dutching tool" like the one at Amwager to help allocate your wagering dollars over multiple horses for the best result in these kinds of situations.

    Exacta: Box Hi Happy, Bigger Picture and Sadler's Joy

    Doubles: Hi Happy, Bigger Picture and Sadler's Joy in race 13 with Storm Runner, Hofburg and Mississippi in race 14

    Florida Derby – Race 14 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 6:30 Eastern

    Hofburg is making only the third start of his career and only his second start as a three year old. In spite of giving away a lot of experience to the others he has a decent shot to win this year's Florida Derby because there are some significant question marks surrounding some of the others. Storm Runner and Mississippi ran first and second, respectively, in a highly rated race over the track in February and if they repeat those efforts the can win as well. I'll make cases for all three based on other factors after I explain why I believe so many horses in this field are NOT win contenders.

    First, Tip Sheet and Millionaire Runner are overmatched as they have never run well in stakes or recently. Then there's Holy Bull Stakes winner Audible. The first question mark for him is returning off a 56 day rest into a nine furlong race. That's not necessarily a big issue as his trainer is Todd Pletcher and as Mississippi and Catholic Boy also made their last starts in the first 10 days of February. The main issue is the 97 Equibase Speed Figure was a regression off his career best 99 figure in his last start as a two year old and three year olds normally run better as they are more physically mature. Also, that 97 figure doesn't hold up to the 110 or better figure it's going to take to win this race, similar to the 115 figure Promises Fulfilled earned winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks ago. With Audible having his work cut out for him, we next move to the first and second place finishers in the Fountain of Youth and I can't back either, at any price because of how that race was run. Promises Fulfilled was allowed to gallop on a lonely lead with no challengers, actually running slower in the second quarter mile as compared to the first, and slower still in the last quarter mile leading to the last 110 yards. His 24.99 fraction from the 3/16 pole to the 1/6 pole was dawdling and appears only to show me what was behind him wasn't much. Fountain of Youth runner-up Strike Power ran second from start to finish and after having run first from start to finish in his other two races, that effort only proves he's a need-the-lead type. Catholic Boy returned to finish second in his first start as a three year old in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, following two months off after a stirring victory in the Remsen Stakes last December. However, after making the lead turning for home against early leader Flameaway, Catholic Boy could not put away his foe and came up a half-length short on the wire. When Flameaway came back to run second behind Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby, with a seriously lower Equibase figure (106 in the Sam F. Davis to 96 in the Tampa Bay Derby), and with the third quarter mile split in the Sam F. Davis a pedestrian 24.81 which Catholic Boy could not make any headway, I just don't see him as the type to leap forward and win the Florida Derby.

    Back to the main contenders – Hofburg is a half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Emollient, who finished second in the Demoiselle Stakes at a mile and one-eighth in only the second start of her career and who also won the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes on conventional dirt. Bill Mott trained Emollient as he does Hofburg, a son of tremendous sire Tapit, whose foals have won nearly 20% of over 220 dirt route stakes for three year olds in the past five years. Mott knows what he has and has no problem moving Hofburg into a grade 1 stakes of his maiden win, with a 102 Equibase figure that was a 20 point improvement off his only other race and which suggests Hofburg could show us a breakout effort in the Florida Derby.

    Storm Runner earned a career best 111 figure winning his second start as a three year old, first on dirt, on February 4 over the track and he did so in spite of running greenly, which means he didn't know exactly what to do. One month later in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Storm Runner fought the jockey in the early stages then when he was let run, he went inside the early leader, only to be shut off and lose his momentum. Shut off one more time, when asked to run on the turn the colt refused to respond and ended up fading to seventh. With a change in jockey and a significant workout (best of 42) coming into the race, Storm Runner has a nice shot if he stays out of trouble.

    Similarly, Mississippi can win if he can repeat or improve off that last effort. Before that he missed by three-quarters of a length to recent Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy and then in that February 4 race, Mississippi moved up nicely to miss by a neck at the end and was nine lengths clear of the third horse. Blinkers added for the Florida Derby can help him focus on the task at hand in the late stages and if that does the trick Mississippi can stamp himself Kentucky Derby contender.

    Betting Strategies:

    Win Bets: Bet Hofburg to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    Also Consider win bets on Storm Runner and on Mississippi at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

    Exactas: Hofburg, Storm Runner and Mississippi over Hofburg, Storm Runner, Mississippi, Strike Power, Promises Fulfilled, Catholic Boy and Audible.

    San Francisco Mile Stakes – Race 8 at Golden Gate – Post Time 6:45 Eastern

    Full of Luck looks extra live in his U.S. debut. A Chilean bred by Lookin At Lucky out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, he was bred to be any kind and has turned out that way, winning 5 of 7 last year and 8 of 14 overall for $262K, a huge bankroll for a horse having run exclusively in Chile until now. Privately purchased since his last race in October, partially by Hollendorfer, he appears to have come to hand quickly with a sharp 1:12 six furlong workout a few weeks ago. The fact that Hollendorfer gets Prat to ride, taking off a whole day at Santa Anita, is very significant and if the horse is as ready to run off the rest as he appears to be, he could pick up where he left off in the fall with a stakes win. Editore ships up from Southern California as well and the last time he did that was in November, winning the Grade 3 Berkeley Handicap, the only real difference between that race and this one (also a grade 3) the Berkeley was on the main track. However, Editore won a turf route at Santa Anita before that and he hasn't been disgraced one bit in his two races since, finishing third twice in a row to the multiple stakes winner Itsinthepost, who would be the odds on favorite here. Syntax is another shipper from Southern California, dropping in class significantly from the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile three weeks ago, where in spite of being overmatched he managed to rally for fourth at 38 to 1. He missed by a half-length two races in a row to tougher before that and is another likely to move up on the change in company.

    For the place position on exacta tickets, in addition to the win contenders we will also use Camino Del Paraiso and Frank Conversation, the former having just run the best race of his career when second in a stakes on the Santa Anita turf in late January and the latter a horse that doesn't have a lot of late kick but who has managed to finish second or third in two graded stakes in his last four races.

    Bets: Full of Luck to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

    Consider win bets on Editore and Syntax at odds of 3 to 1 or more, for a smaller amount than on Full of Luck.

    Exacta: Full of Luck, Editore and Syntax over Full of Luck, Editore, Syntax, Camino Del Paraiso and Frank Conversation.

    Read more...
  • 23
    MAR

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 24 & Sunday, March 25

    Saturday, March 24

    Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6 Eastern Time (3 Pacific Time)

    Unlike most of the other six entrants in this race, General Mach Four is NOT a need-the-lead type. In his career debut last Marth cat Santa Anita, he rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages to draw off handily by five lengths. That was his ONLY dirt sprint, his three starts since a dirt route and two turf sprints. Having changed trainers since his last start in May, General Mach Four finds himself in the Doug O'Neill barn with a consistent series of workout for his comeback, a good outside post, and a red hot Giovanni Franco in the saddle, who earned his first Grade 1 win last weekend and who now is just shy of 25 wins at the meeting. With Bad Bad Leroy, Quick Finish, Caray and possibly Treasure Hunter likely to want the lead from the start or to press the horses that do lead early, General Mach Four, who already proved capable of winning fresh, can do just that today. Spokane Eagle ran very well once and poorly in his other three starts BUT like General Mach Four his winning effort came in a race similar to this one, at this 6 1/2 furlong trip over the track in February. His only start since was around two turns and as he cuts back to one turn he also gets Flavien Prat to ride for the first time, another reason to really like his chances.

    Win bet: General Mach Four and Spokane Eagle at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

    Exacta: General Mach Four over ALL and then also the reverse of that exacta, which is ALL over General Mach Four

    Pick 3:

    Race 7 – Spokane Eagle, Quick Finish, General Mach Four, Bad Bad Leroy

    Race 8 – ALL

    Race 9 – Saltini

    Pick 3: (optional ticket 2)

    Race 7 – Spokane Eagle, General Mach Four

    Race 8 – ALL

    Race 9 – Saltini, Itsinthepost, Hayabusa One

     

    Louisiana Derby – Race 11 at Fair Grounds – Post Time 6:21 Eastern Time (5:21 Central)

    My Boy Jack improved significantly in his second race as a three year old when winning the Southwest Stakes in convincing fashion last month and appears very capable of taking another step forward on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. As a two year old, My Boy Jack won the Zuma Beach Stakes on turf with a career best 114 Equibase Speed Figure before a better-than-looked seventh place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, a race in which he was beaten just three lengths in a field of 14. Rested two months following that race, My Boy Jack returned in January in the Sham Stakes, his first dirt race since his debut seven months earlier. In the Sham, although no match for the top two finishers, My Boy Jack did manage to finish third, earning a 98 figure. That demonstrated enough for trainer Keith Desormeaux to enter him in the Southwest Stakes, a test he passed with flying colors to earn a 106 figure. Shipping back to the trainer's home base in Southern California since the Southwest and putting in three workouts, My Boy Jack comes east once more while appearing capable of running back to his 114 figure effort last summer, that kind of effort making him the one to beat in this year's Louisiana Derby.

     

    Snapper Sinclair, like My Boy Jack, was a stakes winner last year on turf, capturing the Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes in September. After a 12th place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Snapper Sinclair took a similar path as My Boy Jack as trainer Steve Asmussen tried him on dirt in his first start as a three year old and for the first time since his career debut last summer. In that race, the LeComte Stakes, Snapper Sinclair ended up third of 13 after pressing the pace in the early stages. Five weeks later, Snapper Sinclair ran his best race to date when battling head-and-head for the last seven-eighths of a mile in the Risen Star, coming up a nose short on the wire to Bravazo with a career-best 110 figure. With five weeks of rest since that effort, Snapper Sinclair should run as well or better in the Louisiana Derby, particularly with a jockey change to Jose Ortiz, currently the fifth leading rider in North America.

     

    Noble Indy finished third behind Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair in the Risen Star as the second betting choice at five to two odds. That was just the third start of his career and although he did not win as he had in both his previous races, Noble Indy earned a career-best 106 figure in the process. Trainer Todd Pletcher is equipping Noble Indy with blinkers for the first time and that just may be what he needs to run better based on the fact he was third over the course of the entire stretch run of the Risen Star. If the new equipment helps him to focus more on the task at hand in the late stages and to improve his figure just a bit, Noble Indy could stamp himself a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby in six weeks.

     

    Bravazo was my choice in the Risen Star last month based on the fact he placed second in a graded stakes (the Breeders' Futurity) as a two year old and had an excellent prep race in January when making his first start as a three year old. That January 13 effort earned Bravazo a career-best 104 figure, which improved to a 110 figure when he won the Risen Star. Now third on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 54 points, Bravazo just needs to stay in top shape as that point total assures him a spot in the starting gate in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Bravazo worked exceptionally well in preparation for the Louisiana Derby so another top effort should be forthcoming. However, it may be other horses that need to finish first or second in the race may run the best races of their careers while Bravazo won't be pushed to his limit until the Kentucky Derby, leading to one of the other contenders emerging victorious in this race.

    For exotic wagers such as the exacta, we should consider Hyndford, who improved to a career-best 95 figure last month when second in an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Although that figure isn't in the ballpark of the 106 to 110 figure the main four contenders have earned, the fact is he could improve markedly off that effort as the horse that beat him, Magnum Moon, got on the Road to the Derby radar in a big way by winning the Rebel Stakes last Saturday, improving from a 98 figure to a 109 figure. If Hyndford improves similarly off his 95 last race effort, that puts him squarely in range of an in-the-money finish in the Louisiana Derby.

    Win Bets: Bet My Boy Jack (9) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

    Consider a win bet on Snapper Sinclair (7) at 5 to 2 or more.

    Exacta: My Boy Jack (9), Snapper Sinclair (7), Noble Indy (2) and Bravazo (1) over My Boy Jack (9), Snapper Sinclair (7), Noble Indy (2), Bravazo (1) and Hyndford (6).

    Consider playing the opposite of that as well, which is My Boy Jack (9), Snapper Sinclair (7), Noble Indy (2), Bravazo (1) and Hyndford (6) over My Boy Jack (9), Snapper Sinclair (7), Noble Indy (2) and Bravazo (1).

    San Luis Rey Stakes – Race 9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7 Eastern Time (4 Pacific)

    When a trainer the caliber of Dick Mandella moves a horse from a first level allowance win to a Grade 2 stakes like this one, I take notice and ask "what does he know that I don't" which when it comes to training horses is a lot. Saltini didn't do a thing in his first two starts, in 2016, as a three year old, but both were on dirt. Coming back last summer on turf, Saltini showed a ton of ability when missing by inches at 40 to 1. After breaking his maiden in October and given time off between November and January, Saltini returned to finish 2nd then won last month at 10 furlongs on grass with a career best Equibase figure of 113. That isn't what it will take to win this as multiple graded stakes winner Itsinthepost earned a 122 winning this race last year and a 124 figure winning the San Marcos at 10 furlongs last month, BUT Saltini could jump up the 11 points necessary to post the upset, particularly as he is a half-brother to millionaire Champ Pegasus, also trained by Mandella, who won graded stakes at this marathon 12 furlong trip and who was moved by Mandella off a NW1X allowance win into a Grade 2 Stakes early in his career, nearly winning the Sunset Handicap in the process. As such, I'll take the value offered on Saltini, who opens at 10/1.

    Hayabusa One and Itsinthepost were separated by a nose on the wire in the San Marcos last month and Hayabusa One may have won if Espinoza didn't drop the whip with 110 yards to go. Espinoza will attempt to make up for that mistake here and these are both two very tough horses in their element today. For exotic wagers (second on one exacta ticket, third in the trifecta) we will also add Rye, Aquaphobia and Responsibleforlove, all nice horses but a cut below the top three.

    Bet: Saltini to win at 2 to 1 or more and add a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

    Trifecta: Saltini, Itsinthepost and Hayabusa One over Saltini, Itsinthepost and Hayabusa One over ALL

    Exacta: Saltini, Itsinthepost and Hayabusa One over Saltini, Itsinthepost, Hayabusa One, Rye, Responsibleforlove and Aquaphobia.

    Sunday, March 25

    Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes – Race 9 at Sunland Park – Post Time 6:13 Eastern (4:13 Mountain)

    Concord Fast has won three of his last four races, the most recent a similar stakes at Sunland last month. He gets a great outside post to stalk the pacesetters and could easily add to his very strong record of 9 for 18 first or second, the last four all sprints like today. Blameitonthelaw ships in from California for John Sadler. He was overmatched badly in the G2 Pat O'Brien Stakes when last seen in August, but before that he won very nicely in an allowance race with a strong 108 Equibase Figure, which stacks up with the 109 figure Concord Fast earned in his most recent race last month. Also with a good stalking style, Blameitonthelaw has every right to win this $100K stakes. Counterforce rallied for 2nd in a similar stakes at Sam Houston last month, two before that running the best race of his career with a 110 figure. Ricardo Santana gets on for the trainer (Asmussen) who provides most of his wins and as the horse is in the best form of his life he's another to be respected as a contender. Mt Veeder won five of 10 races last year and finished 2nd to Concord Fast in Texas last month in his 2018 debut after leading from the start. Juarez rides him very well, up for his last six wins, and rides back. The 107 figure effort was very strong and makes him competitive here if he repeats it.

    Bets: Concord Fast to win at 2 to 1 or more

    Make a second win bet on Blameitonthelaw, Conterforce or Mt Veeder, whichever goes to post at the highest odds, as long as 2 to 1 or more.

    Exacta and Trifecta: Box Concord Fast, Blameitonthelaw, Conterforce and Mt Veeder

    Pick 3:

    Race 9 – Concord Fast, Blameitonthelaw, Conterforce and Mt Veeder

    Race 10 – ALL

    Race 11 – New York Central, Peace, Choo Choo

    Sunland Park Derby – Race 11 at Sunland Park – Post Time 7:15 Eastern (5:15 Mountain)

    Choo Choo appears well spotted by an excellent trainer in Hollendorfer, and may catch a lot of bettors by surprise opening at 8 to 1. Although he's coming off a fifth place finish with no excuse in the El Camino Real Derby, that race is starting to prove productive as last weekend El Camino Real Derby third place finisher Blended Citizen posted the upset to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks in Kentucky. Although Choo Choo has been running exclusively on turf and all-weather since his debut last summer in a dirt sprint, he is bred to run very well on the dirt as his full brother (same sire and dam) is multiple graded stakes winner Blueskiesnrainbows, who ran very well as a three year old when finishing third in the 2012 Santa Anita Derby and winning the Swaps Stakes on his way to earnings of $670,000 and a win in the Native Diver Stakes at the distance of the Sunland Derby as well as Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who also trained Blueskiesnrainbows to those latter two wins, handles Choo Choo as well. With the colt having put in back-to-back 102 Equibase figure efforts including when winning the California Derby in January and with the removal of blinkers as well as an off-the-pace running style that should benefit from a likely early pace battle between All Out Blitz, Shane Zain and Runaway Ghost, Choo Choo could be on his way to Kentucky with the 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby that comes with a win in this race.

    New York Central is an improving type and a son of Tapit trained by Steve Asmussen, who goes to his #1 jockey in Ricardo Santana, who rode the colt to a game win by a neck last month with a career best 96 Equibase figure. Making his third start of the year, New York Central has improving to do and is another with an off-the-pace style so he should be in a great position to be in the action at the finish in the Sunland Derby.

    Peace didn't show much when fourth behind McKinzie and Bolt d'Oro in the San Felipe or when fifth prior to that in the Robert B. Lewis but considering Hall-of-Fame trainer Dick Mandella wheels him back on just 14 days rest we should take notice. Mandella is a very prudent trainer and must believe the colt didn't have much taken out of him in his other race this month. Over the past two years, Mandella has only brought back nine horses in under a month and among those nine, three won, all in graded stakes including Paradise Woods in last year's Santa Anita Oaks and Beholder in the Grade 1 Vanity Mile in 2016. Even though Peace finished fourth last time out, the 107 Equibase figure earned is the best last race figure in the field. As such, we must consider Peace as a major player in this race.

    Three horses, All Out Blitz, Seven Trumpets and Runaway Ghost, appear a cut below the top three contenders but can be used on some exacta tickets in the second position.

    Bets: Bet Choo Choo to win at odds of 5 to 2 and add a place bet if 5 to 1 or higher.

    Consider a win bet on New York Central at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

    Exacta: Play an exacta of Choo Choo, New York Central and Peace over Choo  Choo, New York Central, Peace, All Out Blitz, Seven Trumpets and Runaway Ghost.

    Read more...
  • 16
    MAR

    Key Bets & Races for Saturday, March 17

    Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes – Race 8 at Turfway Park – Post Time 4:38 Eastern Time

    For anyone that plays multi-race bets like the double, pick 3 or pick 4, a race like this is known as a "FREE SQUARE" similar to bingo. When any race in a series has a standout, that can significantly cut down on the cost of the ticket and/or enable bettors to open up (spread) with more contenders in other races, allowing for the chance of a longshot to come in and more than pay for the cost of the bet.

    Royal Son is such a horse, a "single" (the only horse to use on multi-race tickets in a particular race), because he has been dominant in his last two races and I don't believe anything in this race is going to change that. He won on 11/30 in a classified allowance (just below stakes level) easily with a 120 Equibase figure, reserved for Grade 1 or 2 stakes winners, then he won even more easily on 12/29 when victorious by even lengths in the Prairie Bayou Stakes, both around two turns here at Turfway Park, where he's now 3 for 4. His most recent morning workout, on 3/6, shows he's holding top form and it would be very difficult to beat him in this situation.

    In addition to the free square for multi-race bets, we can play an EXACTA WHEEL or Part-Wheel in this situation by playing Royal Son to come in first and a number of horses to come in second.

    Win bet: Royal Son at odds of 6 to 5 or more, a low odds overlay

    Exacta: Royal Son over Catinati, Senior Investment, Colonel Samson, Dac, Chip Leader and Designed for War. You can also consider an exacta of Royal Son over ALL.

    Pick 3: Ticket 1

    Race 8 – Royal Son

    Race 9 – Consolida, In the Mood, Homemade Salsa, Go Noni Go, Queen's Fate, Mauk's Tuff, Mo Flash

    Race 10 – Sky Promise, Archaggelos, Magicalmeister, Ride a Comet

    Inside Information Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:04 Eastern Time

    Moonlit Promise is a low odds overlay win bet in this race, opening at 9/2. Winner of six of her first nine races, all at Woodbine and all on all-weather, Moonlit Promise made her conventional dirt debut on 1/27 in the similar Hurricane Bertie Stakes and with a jockey unfamiliar with her made what might have been the winning move, from 8th of 12 early to lead into the stretch, before being passed and ending up 4th. Now she's making her 2nd start on the track and better still is reunited with Gary Boulanger, who rode her to her last four wins including the similar G2 Bessarabian Stakes at this 7 furlong trip in November. Gary is going to time her move a lot better and with the best trio of Equibase figures (105, 103, 104) in the field from last year to run back to Moonlit Promise is going to be very tough to beat. Ivy Bell moves to the Pletcher barn and is a very competitive mare, only worse than 2nd one time in 7 races last year and in that race she clipped heels and lost the jockey. She finished 2nd at the distance in the G3 Chicago Handicap last June and with Castellano taking over should be in the exacta for sure.

    Jordan's Henny posted the 59 to 1 upset in the Hurricane Bertie and should be used on exacta tickets, as should Mines and Magic, who went winless in six races last year but who won the Dogwood Stakes at the distance in the fall of 2016 and who gets a good jockey change to Lezcano.

    Bet: Moonlit Promise to win at 2 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Moonlit Promise over Ivy Bell, Jordan's Henny and Mines and Magic.

    Then, also play the reverse of that exacta, which is Ivy Bell, Jordan's Henny and Mines and Magic over Moonlit Promise.

    Bourbonette Oaks – Race 9 at Turfway Park – Post Time 5:14 Eastern Time

    Consilida made her first two starts in England, the second of the two on an all-weather surface like the one at Turfway, and in that race she finished fast from 10th to 1st to win. Privately purchased after that, she was sent to the U.S. and to trainer Paddy Gallagher in California. Returning to the races last month, also over an all-weather surface, Consolida posted the 7 to 1 upset to win the California Oaks and as she's likely to run even better here and as she's shown an affinity for this kind of track she is shipped into California where she has a big shot to win her 2nd stakes race in a row. In the Mood won the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes at Turfway last month, a sprint, and is stretching out to two-turns for the first time. She's bred to handle the extra distance on both sides of her pedigree and it's only the lack of experience that makes her the 2nd win contender here as she has every right to run big right back. Homemade Salsa finished third behind In the Mood in that stakes race last month, three races before that winning a stakes race on grass and around two turns. If a little closer up then last time out when 10th in the early stages she has a shot to be passing most if not all of these for the win as well. Go Noni Go gets a potentially disadvantageous outside post but won around two turns, on turf, one before last from the 8 post and does have a closing style so if jockey Gaffalione can drop her back before the turn and save ground she too has a shot to be there at the wire, perhaps even to win as she was third in a stakes last summer.

    Bets: Consolida to win at 5 to 2 or more

    Consider win bets, for smaller amounts than on Consolida, on In the Mood and on Homemade Salsa at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

    Exacta: Consolida, In the Mood, Homemade Salsa and Go Noni Go over  Consolida, In the Mood, Homemade Salsa, Go Noni Go, Queen's Fate, Mauk's Tuff and Mo Flash.

    Jeff Ruby Steaks – Race 10 at Turfway Park – Post Time 6 Eastern Time

    Magicalmeister posted the 39 to 1 upset in the local prep race, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, a few weeks back, but that wasn't a fluke nor should his odds have been that high. Prior to the Battaglia, Magicalmeister had improved significantly in his second career start and first route when third after a nine and three-quarter debut win sprinting. The route prior to the Battaglia was at Turfway Park and the improvement in Equibase figure from 64 in his debut to 76 in his second start suggested Magicalmeister could win if making the same 12 point gain, which three year olds at this time of year are very capable of. Rallying on the turn from third to make the lead by a half-length with an eighth of a mile to go, Magicalmeister held that margin to the wire, which is difficult to do over Turfway's all-weather surface. Likely to be underbet (ignored) in the wagering once again, Magicalmeister appears capable of winning his second stakes race in a row and perhaps at high odds once more. Archaggelos is out of the mare Mien, making him a half-brother to 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. Rested since a fourth place finish in the Display Stakes in December, Archaggelos has already proven capable at the level as he won the Grade 3 Grey Stakes last October, the same race 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird won in 2008. Since his last race, Archaggelos has been training exclusively on all-weather surfaces and based on very logical improvement off the 89 Equibase figure earned in the Grey he should be a strong contender in the Jeff Ruby. Sky Promise rallied from last of 11 to miss by a half-length in the Battaglia Stakes last month, in his second start as a three year old, and with two very sharp workouts since that race he could be passing many if not all of these in the stretch. Ride a Comet ships in from Louisiana for top trainer Tom Amoss off a pair of wins, the most recent on grass. Although Amoss isn't known for starting many horses on all-weather surfaces the Stats Race Lens query on the move shows Amoss has won 25% of time moving horses from turf to all-weather. Since Ride A Comet earned 91 and 85 figures in his last two starts and those figures are competitive with the other main contenders in the race, he rounds out the quartet of candidates to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

    Bets: Bet Magicalmeister and Archaggelos to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet if 6 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Play an exacta box consisting of Magicalmeister, Archaggelos, Sky Promise and Ride A Comet.

    Consider an exacta consisting of Magicalmeister, Archaggelos, Sky Promise and Ride A Comet over ALL.

    Santa Margarita Stakes – Race 9 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7 Eastern Time (4 Pacific)

    At first glance it might appear Turkish Tabby, Mended and Bishop's Pond may all want the lead from the start and at any cost. Well, although Mended and Bishop's Pond may both be need-the-lead types at any cost, it is much more likely Bishop's Pond will be sent hard for the lead while Mended can sit second as she did twice last year, both times winning. Turkish Tabby is NOT a need-the-lead type by any means, as she closed from third sprinting twice in her career and I believe it was just a matter of no other horse wanting the lead last out on 2/8 in her first route that she led from start to nearly the finish, beaten a nose on the wire. She was short that day as it was, coming back from 11 months off in a route without a prep because when she won her first route, Turkish Tabby did so in her 2nd career start off a sprint prep. Bound to be much tighter today, and with her last two efforts of 2017 yielding 106 and 105 Equibase figures nearly as good as horses like Mopotism & Mended, who open at much lower odds, I think Turkish Tabby can post the upset and even if she doesn't she can make us a nice profit in exactas opening at 15/1. La Force finished 2nd in three straight between September and December then missed by inches in a 3 horse photo in the Grade 2 La Canada, a race in which she could just as easily have beaten Mopotism and Mended, who finished 1-2 respectively, as finished third. She came back to get a confidence building win on 2/16 with Smith up for the first time and with Smith riding back and the rail she's very playable too, opening at 6/1. As stated previously, Mended can tuck in behind Bishop's Pond so must be respected as she has a shot to win for the 14th time in her 28th career race, while Mopotism continues to perform well at this level. Fault rounds out the contenders, a grade 2 winner on turf having won the Buena Vista Stakes last out on the trainer change to D'Amato and I am not going to second guess this excellent trainer who is moving her to dirt off that strong win with a 109 figure.

    Bets: Play Turkish Tabby to win and to place at 3 to 1 or more and add a place bet at 6 to 1 odds or higher.

    Consider another win bet, this one on La Force, at 3 to 1 or more, and on Mended at 3 to 1 or more.

    Use a "dutching tool" like the one at Amwager (free) that helps allocated your money on multiple horses to win.

    Play an exacta box consisting 

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