Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 21st, 2025

Ellis Starr
June 18, 2025

Lady Jacqueline Stakes – Race 11 at Thistledown – Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern Win contender: Candlelight Hours, Peignoir, Where’s My Ring Candlelight Hours loves to run and she runs […]

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Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 21st, 2025

Lady Jacqueline Stakes - Race 11 at Thistledown - Post Time 5:35 PM Eastern

Win contender: Candlelight Hours, Peignoir, Where’s My Ring

Candlelight Hours loves to run and she runs very competitively nearly every time, resulting in 13 wins and 15 second or third place finishes in 30 races. She’s only finished worse than third TWICE in 30 races, while earning 10 of those 13 wins at Thistledown, and, better still, two at this nine-furlong trip. Only she, Peignoir and Where’s My Ring have won at the distance, and she’s going to offer the best odds of the three for sure, as most of her wins have come against Ohio Breds. However, she’s beaten open (not restricted) company three times in her career and she stretches out off a fantastic six-furlong prep in her third start following nine months off, so she should improve as she has to when stepping up to this level. Better still, Candlelight Hours has won the last three times she stretched out from six furlongs to a route, including for both of her wins at this distance.

Peignoir and Where’s My Ring both have credentials to succeed but may be over bet as they are shipping in from Pimlico and from Churchill Downs, respectively and appear to be dropping in class, but that’s an illusion. Peignoir won at this trip last November in allowance company and was recently fourth in the Du Pont Stakes on Preakness weekend (which carries a lower purse than this race) but before that won a third level allowance race and her best finish in a stakes was a runner-up effort. Where’s My Ring won the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes at this distance last April (2024) versus three-year-olds only but has won just one of eight since and that was an allowance race. She finished sixth as the 2 to 1 favorite in the Grade 3 Shawnee Stakes three weeks ago with no real excuse. Still, the best efforts Peignoir and Where’s My Ring have put forth make them contenders if repeated.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Candlelight Hours should be considered for a win bet at odds as low as 5 to 2.

Exactas:
Box Candlelight Hours, Peignoir
Box Candlelight Hours, Where’s My Ring

Doubles:
Race 11: Candlelight Hours
Race 12: Chunk of Gold, McAfee, Clever Again

Ohio Derby - Race 12 at Thistledown - Post Time 6:20 PM Eastern

Win contenders in preference order: Clever Again, McAfee, Chunk of Gold
For exactas: Capo Luca

Clever Again began his career in the spring of 2024, narrowly missing victory in that race by a head. For whatever reason, he was away until this past February, but despite the long layoff and not having the benefit of a sprint prep, Clever Again easily dominated a field of 10 to win a route race at one mile and one-sixteenth. Leading from start to finish in that race, Clever Again earned a 100 Equibase Speed Figure which was pretty strong for newly turned three-year-olds at that time of year. Next came the Hot Springs Stakes at the end of March, a race in which Clever Again led from start to finish once more and earning a career best 108 figure which is also the highest earned by any horse in this field. In the Preakness Stakes five weeks ago, Clever Again took the lead at the start from an outside post but expended a bit too much energy in doing so, as well as being pressured by other horses through a faster than average opening quarter and half mile, which resulted in a ninth-place finish.

In the Ohio Derby, starting from the six post in the gate and with none of the five horses inside having shown any desire to lead in the early stages, jockey Jose Ortiz can easily get Clever Again to the front and to the rail and control the tempo from the start to win, the same way Batten Down did in winning this race last year. It must be noted that Master Controller and Mo Plex both earned wins in their most recent races after leading from the start, but given they have positions outside Clever Again in the gate, I will assume they will take second or third positions early once they see that Clever Again has the early lead. If that assumption is incorrect, then the two contenders below, McAfee and Chunk of Gold, can pass the tiring pacesetters to win.

McAfee won his career debut last November at six furlongs then finished second, beaten a head, in an allowance race at one mile around one turn at Churchill Downs. As with many aspiring two-year-olds, McAfee was given some time off and returned in March of this year, finishing fifth in the Gotham Stakes, also a one-turn race. Stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Wood Memorial in April, McAfee didn’t do much running, ending up fifth of 10. Blinkers were added for the Peter Pan Stakes last month and they made a world of difference as McAfee raced up close in third, got to within a head of the leader with an eighth of a mile to go, then settled for second at the end, less than a length of the winner. With that effort, McAfee improved to a career best 98 figure. It is reasonable to assume McAfee can run even better in this race off the experience of that effort at the same distance, particularly as his dam produced 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna, who won four stakes races at this distance last year.

Chunk of Gold is the only one of the 10 Ohio Derby entrants to have run in the Kentucky Derby, having rallied to sixth with a quarter of a mile to run then fading to ninth in the stretch. Prior to that Chunk of Gold proved himself at the level with second place finishes in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, the latter in which he earned a career-best 96 figure. Getting a good inside post for this race, Chunk of Gold can save graound and benefit if Clever Again fails to secure an easy early lead or just gets tired in the late stages.

Handicapper Picks

Win: Clever Again should be considered first, perhaps a low odds overlay win bet, at odds of 3 to 2 or more.
McAfee can be considered for a win bet at 9 to 5 or more.
Chunk of Gold can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more.

Exacta:
Clever Again, McAfee, Chunk of Gold over Capo Luca
McAfee and Clever Again over Chunk of Gold and Capo Luca
The strategy with the exactas above is to maximize profit and minimize loss (short term and long term), so we will avoid exactas consisting of the two favorites, Clever Again and McAfee, because exactas containing those two finishing first and second will pay the least of any exactas in this race.

Ellis Starr

Ellis is available @Ubercapper and is a renowned Public handicapper, blogger, speaker, fan educator of horse racing. In 2025, Ellis finished 34th in the National Handicapping Contest (NHC) earning him $14,500 in prize money!

Ellis provides analysis on key stakes races so check back often and keep an eye on his value lines and his advice on dutching your picks. Value is important when deciding who to bet and how much to bet.