Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 8, 2020Ballerina Stakes - Race 7 at Saratoga - Post Time 3:42 PM EasternThis race needs to go as drawn (no scratches) for this to work out because if both Serengeti Empress and Letruska both run, there’s little chance Serengeti Empress gets the early lead to herself she needs to win. So, I’m labeling Serengeti Empress as vulnerable and that makes the race very playable. Pink Sands won the Inside Information Stakes in January, a seven furlong graded stakes just like this one and that was her second graded stakes win in a row. She was then off for five months and returned in the Phipps, also around one turn but at a mile and one-sixteenth. She ran poorly in that race without a “visible” excuse. I say “visible” because when a top trainer like McGaughey enters a horse in a grade 1…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 1, 2020H. Allen Jerkens Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:18 PM EasternH. Allen Jerkens Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:18 PM Eastern The morning line favorite, No Parole (9/5 starting odds), has a problem because although he’s five-for-six, all five wins have been earned leading from start to finish. Although he’s very fast in the early stages, so is Eight Rings and also Mischevious Alex. I just can’t see him getting his way on the front end as he did in the Woody Stephens on June 20. Of the horses proven to come from off the pace and win, three deserve top billing – Captain Bombastic (15/1), Tap It to Win (5/1) and Echo Town (9/2). Captain Bombastic just ran the best race of his career and at this seven furlong trip on June 14.…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 25, 2020Race 7 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:32 PM EasternThis is a very interesting allowance race worthy of our attention, and our wagering dollars. The two top contenders are Montauk Daddy (15/1 morning line) and Kingmeister (8/1 morning line). The reason they offer value is because the favorite Proven Strategies is not a strong win contender although he certainly can win, or finish second. His career record is 2-3-1 in nine turf races and he’s being bet off a second place finish in a pair of stakes BUT he’s only beaten Florida-breds for his two wins. On the other hand, Montauk Daddy makes his second start off a race he badly needed following more than seven months off last month. It was a great prep in which his running line was 6-6-5-4 and in which he was pretty much the same distance…
Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 18, 2020Trillium Stakes - Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:55 PM EasternPainting is on the verge of her first stakes win in this situation, having put in a fantastic prep on 6/21 when coming back from seven months off. That effort came in the similar (except for the distance) Grade 3 Whimsical Stakes, in which she rallied from eighth of 10 to get second, beaten a length. She was 13 to 1 then but still opens at 6 to 1 here in spite of having earned the best last race Equibase Speed Figure (101) in the field. She was second in the Grade 2 Bessarabian Stakes (at seven furlongs) before the layoff so the only question is whether she can handle two turns, and that is easily answered looking at her pedigree as she’s by Distorted Humor out of an A.P.…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For July 11, 2020Appalachian Stakes - Race 4 at Keeneland - Post Time 2:45 PM EasternMariafoot imported from France just recently (June) after running there in February and not only is she fit, with six workouts since June 1, she won her last race. That was a stakes race in a field of 10 on an all-weather surface. It was also on a counter-clockwise (left-handed) course just like in this country and it was at this mile trip. In the race she was close up early and surged at the end in a five horse blanket finish, showing a very nice will to win. Her sire has only had one horse run in the U.S. prior to her but it was a multiple stakes winning filly on the grass, Sandiva. The 96 Equibase figure from that race in France indicates she fits at…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For July 4, 2020Poker Stakes - Race 8 at Belmont - Post Time 5:13 PM EasternDream Friend returned from seven months off five weeks ago and tired to third after leading from the start, at this mile turf trip at Belmont. That was nothing more than a PREP for this mile stakes race and I think the horse is going to run much better and turn the tables on Value Proposition, who won that day. Terranova is really good with horses second off the layoff in turf routes (5 for 14 in the past two years) and that’s why I sense the 6/3 race was to tighten Dream Friend up for this race. From the rail he could easily be the “Lone frontrunner” and take the field all the way and as such he offers tons of value opening at 8 to 1.…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For June 27, 2020Vagrancy Handicap - Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 4:32 PM EasternThis four race sequence of stakes starts with a predictable race in which the two starting favorites, Chalon and Come Dancing, have a significantly higher probability to win than the other five. The best way to make money in a race like this is in doubles and pick 3s. You could also play the pick 5 but I didn’t handicap the last race in the sequence (11) for the blog. Chalon finished second in this race in 2018, after making the lead late in the stretch, and she’s done little wrong since then, having finished first or second in four of five races last year. If you exclude the race in October which led to the layoff she’s coming back from today, Chalon run four “A” races in…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For June 20, 2020Acorn Stakes - Race 8 at Belmont - Post Time 4:15 PM EasternLucrezia is a filly I’ve liked since last fall when she won the Sandpiper Stakes (a sprint) in December. I loved her in the Suncoast Stakes in February off a two month layoff and stretching out to two turns for the first time and she rewarded us at almost 6 to 1 odds when easily winning by five. She ran into a buzzsaw named Swiss Skydiver in her only start off that race, in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, finishing second and gamely by a nose over the next horses as the winner was in another league as proven by winning the Fantasy Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks since then. Not only did Swiss Skydiver improve off the effort from a 99 Equibase figure to 104 then 108, but…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For June 13, 2020Woodstock Pick 3 starting in Race 7 at Woodbine Post Time 4:21 Eastern Before I get into the races for today, I want to let everyone know that race 7 at Woodbine, the Woodstock Stakes, is my race of the day at Woodbine. If you want that analysis head over there. That being said, because the Pick 3 at Woodbine has a $0.20 base cost, I’m playing a pick 3 starting in race 7 and including the two races on this week’s blog: Pick 3 at Woodbine: Race 7: Newstome, Clayton Race 8: Take Charge Eh, Owlette, Curlin’s Voyage, Ima Beast, Cool Shadows, Two Sixty, New York Groove Race 9: Occasional View, Walkabout Creek, Sure Would Forest, Call Me Wally, Sumerian Bell, Kitchen Fire Cost $16.80 at the $0.20 minimum You can also play additional tickets using only Curlin’s Voyage, Cool…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May 30, 2020Westchester Stakes - Race 7 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:32 PM EasternChad Brown has been loaded waiting for racing to restart and it seems like he has more than one horse in every race he runs in. In this race he has a pair in Monongahela and Payne and both look very strong. Monongahela is one of many horses moving from suspended Servis. He’s not been seen since 2/15 but that was a huge effort when beaten a neck by multiple winner Alwaysmining. Two before that he won a 100K stakes strongly with a sweeping move. The 120 and 113 Equibase figures from those races are the best in the field this year and I have to think he’s going to run huge as a fresh horse with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. This one-turn mile and one-sixteenth…