Thursday, 19 September 2019 12:55

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, September 21

Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website.

Parx Dirt Mile Stakes -Race 8 at Parx Racing -Post Time 4 pm Eastern

Coal Front is seven-for-eleven in his career but showed he is not invincible when badly beaten as the heavy favorite in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup Stakes when last seen, following a seventh of nine finish in the Met Mile. After winning the Godolphin Mile in Dubai in March, it wasn't unexpected for him to not be fully in form in the Met Mile but that effort was worse than what could be expected and since he's lost two in a row after winning three straight, although his best can win this race, his form makes this race very playable.

Bonus Points changed trainers between his 4/13 and 8/17 starts and I don't view the change from Pletcher to Trombetta as negative in any way. He was trying turf for the first time in ages in that 8/17 race and I view it as a workout so it wasn't bad in terms of giving him a race. His most recent work was strong, best of 39, and his form at this level is good enough to win particularly if he runs back to the 2/16 race he won, the John Campbell Stakes, where he beat Monangahela by a head. Rosario sees fit to ride and I see a big move forward second off a four month layoff which means he could post the upset, opening at 8/1.

Monangahela opens as the second choice at 3/1 as he drops after being overmatched in the G1 Whitney. He won the Grade 3 Iselin prior to that but was winless in 11 races in a row before that, the best of which was the head defeat to Bonus Points in February. Still, Irad Ortiz, Jr. sees fit to ride and the 113 Equibase figure earned winning the Iselin is better than the 107 figure Bonus Points earned winning the Campbell so if Monangahela can run back to it he could win.

Golden Brown has won four of five this year, finishing a well-beaten third in the other. The KEY to those wins may be Paco Lopez, who had not ridden him previous to the first win in June and who did not ride him in the Alydar Stakes in which he finished third. With Lopez a perfect three-for-three when aboard and taking the call today, I think Golden Brown may not have the same probability to win as the other three but he also has more of a chance to win then is suggested by his 10/1 starting odds.

Bets:
Win bets: Bonus Points and Golden Brown at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Box Bonus Points, Monangahela, Coal Front and Golden Brown.

Pick 3
Race 8 - Bonus Points, Monangahela, Coal Front, Golden Brown
Race 9 - Trophy Chaser, Landeskog, King Jack
Race 10 - Guarana, Street Band, Jeltrin and Horologist

Pick 4
Race 8 - Bonus Points, Monangahela, Coal Front, Golden Brown
Race 9 - Trophy Chaser, Landeskog, King Jack
Race 10 - Guarana, Street Band, Jeltrin and Horologist
Race 11 - Improbable, Spun to Run, Mr. Money

Alternate Pick 4 singling Mr. Money and going deeper in race 10, the Cotillion.
Race 8 - Bonus Points, Monangahela, Coal Front, Golden Brown
Race 9 - Trophy Chaser, Landeskog, King Jack
Race 10 – Serengeti Empress, Guarana, Street Band, Jeltrin, Horologist, Bellafina and Jaywalk
Race 11 - Mr. Money

Gallant Bob Stakes – Race 9 at Parx Racing - Post Time 4:34 PM Eastern

King Jack is a lightly raced colt who could be a multiple stakes winner before too long. He won his first two starts in June and July in impressive fashion, both sprints, before trying two turns in the Shared Belief Stakes last month, which turned out to be the prep McKinzie chose before moving back into grade 1 stakes company later on the day in the Pennsylvania Derby. Meanwhile, King Jack cuts back to one turn where his impressive win before the Shared Belief earned a 117 Equibase figure far superior to any other entrant in this field. He can win on the lead or from off the pace and even the 108 figure earned when second behind McKinzie is the best last race figure in the field so he appears to be a legitimate favorite in this race.

That being said, the second morning line favorite, Bulletin, is suspect, having run five times on turf to date in his career and trying dirt for the first time. Adding to the question of whether he can run as well on dirt, even though he has won three of five on grass, is the fact he has shown ONLY a need-the-lead style in all five starts and he's one of potentially SIX "early" pace types in the field. Drawn just inside of Bulletin is Get Hammered, who earned both wins leading from start to finish and who ran second from start to finish in the other. Bethlehem Road won both his sprints on the lead all the say, the same as Strong Will, and it's possible War Bridle and War Tocsin, with the inside two posts, will have to go fast early too. That really compromises Bulletin's chances here so he's out as a contender.

Trophy Chaser wired the field last out at Gulfstream BUT stalked in third and in second in the early stages in three of his other five starts so could be in a great spot. He also beat older allowance types last out so moving back to three year olds is positive. His three best efforts earned 111, 104 and 105 figure which aren't far off the 108 King Jack earned last out and like the rest here, as a three year old he's likely not peaked by any means. Best of all Jose Ortiz takes the call.

Landeskog could get caught up in the speed duel, but he might rate just a bit as well as he did last out when second for the first half-mile. That was a breakout race for him as he won by almost five and the O'Neill/Cedillo team shipped out of California (like they're doing here) to win the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs last weekend, so I would definitely consider this gelding a contender based on the 109 Equibase figure last time out.

Bets:
Win Bets: King Jack at odds of 3 to 2 or higher, a low odds overlay win bet.
Trophy Chaser and Landeskog to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. (Personally I would just pick one of the two at the highest odds near post time)

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Box King Jack, Trophy Chaser and Landeskog
Then also (because King Jack is going to be favored) King Jack over Trophy Chaser and Landeskog

Pick 3 (Really only necessary if we played the pick 4 starting in race 8 and did not win the first leg)
Race 9 - Trophy Chaser, Landeskog, King Jack
Race 10 - Guarana, Street Band, Jeltrin and Horologist
Race 11 - Improbable, Spun to Run, Mr. Money

Alternate Pick 3
Race 9 - Trophy Chaser, Landeskog, King Jack
Race 10 – Serengeti Empress, Guarana, Street Band, Jeltrin, Horologist, Bellafina and Jaywalk
Race 11 - Mr. Money

Cotillion Stakes – Race 10 at Parx Racing - Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Pace is going to be the key to this race and I'm either going to be right or go down in flames if the pace scenario I envision doesn't come to fruition.

Serengeti Empress gets the rail, in this 11 horse field, which requires she extricated herself from horses coming over to save ground before the first turn. Considering she has had the lead after a half-mile in all but one of her last eight races, consisting of all her two-turn races except last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Ortiz, Jr. will have no choice but to send her from the opening bell. The problem is Jaywalk, who gets the 11 post, and who has even more reason to scurry fast early to save ground. Jawalk has shown nothing but a need-the-lead style in her career including running the opening half mile last out in 46.8. Add Collegeville Girl to the mix as this filly tries two turns for the first time and earned both wins leading from start to finish. I can't see her connections abandoning the only strategy which has worked. Then there's Bellafina. In every one of her two turn wins except one (the Santa Anita Oaks) she has led or been within a half-length of the lead after a half-mile. She certainly can rate, but she's adding blinkers so it could be she will want to have the lead early as well.

With that in mid, although Serengeti Empress, Jaywalk and Bellafina can finish second, perhaps even win, I'm going to be considering these four for win bets and as keys to the exacta three of them likely to go to post at nice prices – Horologist, Jeltrin, Street Band, and on Guarana, the morning line favorite.

Horologist is five for ten in her career, not a bad record at all, including a four for four record in routes. She doesn't have the class as some others in here but she is a late bloomer, having just won a graded stakes for the first time last month when victorious in the G3 Monmouth Oaks. She stalked in third early, about two and one-half to three lengths back, in two of those wins and that style could be the winning one here as she could get first run on the tiring pacesetters and pressers. Luis Saez gets on and that's a good sign and the last race 101 figure isn't that bad compared to the best in here.

Street Band has run big in top company twice this rear, and bombed twice. The first of the big efforts came when posting the 10/1 upset in the Fair Grounds Oaks in March and the other came when dominating by three lengths in the Indiana Oaks in July. She wasn't really disgraced in the Alabama Stakes last month when beaten a nose for second either. She's certainly the horse most likely to be nowhere near the early pace here and if she's about four-five lengths back early, she could be flying late so if she runs back to either of those two efforts, the latter which earned a 103 figure, she could post the upset.

Jeltrin burst on the scene paying over $100 when winning the Davona Dale Stakes in March, then lost four straight, never really threatening in any. Removing blinkers for her first ever race at Parx 19 days ago, she returned to winning form, actually running better than in the Davona Dale, by earning a career-best 102 figure. Reyes rides back and I would not rule out an odds beating performance by this filly who can sit about third or fourth in the early stages so will be conserving energy as many others will not be capable of doing.

Guarana is actually the most probable winner among the four contenders I've written about, but she opens at 9/5. She won the Acorn powerfully off a maiden win then won the CCA Oaks fairly easily although her Equibase figure regressed from 110 to 99 in her first two turn race. Brown has been pointing to this race since then, perhaps even before that, so she's likely fit as a fiddle and if she runs back to, or improves upon her Acorn effort, it is possible the rest are running for second. Although a poor win bet at low odds, we can make money in exotics with an "exacta as a win bet" as mentioned below.

Bets:
Win bets: Horologist, Street Band and Jeltrin to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more. Note: I believe even wagering on three horses and knowing two of the three can’t win, the wager has an edge worth the risk.

Add place bets on any or all of the same three horses at 7 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:
Guarana over Street Band, Jeltrin and Horologist

Box Guarana and Street Band, Box Guarana and Jeltrin and Box Guarana and Horologist

Street Band, Jeltrin, Horologist and Guarana over ALL (if only for $1)

Street Band, Jeltrin and Horologist over Street Band, Jeltrin, Horologist, Serengeti Empress, Bellafina and Jaywalk.

Street Band, Jeltrin, Horologist, Serengeti Empress, Bellafina and Jaywalk over Street Band, Jeltrin and Horologist.

Pennsylvania Derby - Race 11 at Parx Racing - Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Mr. Money just wasn't ready for the three year old classics earlier this year but has become one of the leaders in the division and will be formidable in this year's Pennsylvania Derby. Considering he finished seventh then fifth in his first two starts as a three year old, both around two turns, it was with much confidence trainer Calhoun entered Mr. Money in the Pat Day Mile Stakes on Kentucky Derby day. That one-turn mile trip suited Mr. Money perfectly as he dominated to win by five and one-quarter lengths to earn a then career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure. Stretching out to two-turns in the Matt Winn Stakes in June, Mr. Money was equally impressive when coasting home by six lengths, improving to a 106 figure. Showing even more improvement one month later with a 114 figure, Mr. Money won the Indiana Derby by two and one-half lengths then returned three weeks later to win the West Virginia Derby by six lengths. If this was May and this race was the Kentucky Derby rather than the Pennsylvania Derby, based on those efforts Mr. Money would be among my top contenders because he has shown tremendous acceleration with a quarter mile to run in his last four races. Most notably, in the West Virginia Derby, Mr. Money went from a head in front at the quarter pole to five lengths in front at the eighth pole. The way jockey Gabriel Saez is able to get Mr. Money to change gears at that critical stage of the race is the reason I believe Mr. Money will win the Pennsylvania Derby to earn his fifth straight graded stakes victory in a row.

Spun to Run is the "under the radar" horse in this talented field. Among the field, he is the most familiar with the dirt track at Parx, having won three of five races here, and he comes off a career best effort and on a pattern to improve upon it. After finishing fourth in a sprint to start his three-year-old campaign, Spun to Run stretched out to two turns and won as he pleased in January. Returning in March, Spun to Run ran even better when drawing off by seven lengths and earning a then career-best 99 figure. Although third behind Maximum Security in the Haskell at Monmouth with a 96 figure in his next start, when returning to his home base for the Smarty Jones Stakes on September 2, Spun to Run ran the best race of his career. The 113 figure earned is also the best last race figure in the field, although not the best earned by any horse as that belongs to Mr. Money's 114 figure in the Indiana Derby. Nevertheless, Spun to Run was exceptionally game in the blinkers he was wearing for only the second time in the Smarty Jones as he battled head and head down the entire length of the stretch before asserting himself by a head on the wire.

Improbable added blinkers for the Shared Belief Stakes last month in California and apparently that did the trick in getting him to win for the first time since last December. Blinkers were tried once before, in the Arkansas Derby, and it's debatable whether they did anything to motivate the colt as he was one length behind winner Omaha Beach for the entire length of the stretch. However, after non-threatening efforts in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the equipment change seemed to help as Improbable earned a career-best 112 figure while retaining a strong three length lead in the last eighth of a mile. Making his second start off a layoff, Improbable can take another step forward to win the Pennsylvania Derby but in my opinion he's no more probable to win than either Mr. Money or Spun to Run and will be the much lower odds of the trio.

Bets:
Win Bets: Mr Money to win at odds of 6 to 5 or more, a low odds overlay win bet.
A smaller win bet can be made on Spun to Run at 5 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Mr Money over Spun to Run and Improbable

Box Mr Money and Spun to Run

Mr Money over Spun to Run, Improbable, Math Wizard and War of Will

For a smaller amount:
Spun to Run over Mr Money, Improbable, Math Wizard and War of Will


Friday, 13 September 2019 12:25

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, September 14

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Canadian Stakes -Race 7 at Woodbine-Post Time 4:30 Eastern

Magnetic Charm is a lightly raced three year old filly, the only three year old in the seven horse field. She faced older for the first time in a stakes race at Ascot at the end of July and finished third as the odds on favorite. Prior to that she ran huge when beaten a neck in a 27 horse field at Royal Ascot in June and prior to that she won by a neck in an 11 horse field in a stakes, that win following eight months on the bench and her ONLY start on a left handed course. Those three efforts this year show what she’s made of and trainer William Haggas doesn’t ship to North America unless he has the goods. He’s only shipped five horses in the last few years, including Call to Mind, who won the Belmont Gold Cup Invitational last year for Her Majesty The Queen, who also owns this filly. Haggas also shipped Awesometank (who is running in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile later on the day) to finish second in the Beverly D. Stakes. In short, I don’t think Magnetic Charm was brought over to keep her stablemate company and is a legitimate contender to win this race and to post the mild upset, opening at 8 to 1.

Starship Jubilee won this race last year at 11/1 following a win five weeks earlier over the course. She won the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf this past winter at Gulfstream as she had in 2018 and although winless in three since, they have all been solid efforts as she finished third (beaten three-quarters of a length), second and third (beaten a half-length). Those three all came after four months off so she’s certainly not over raced. Best of all, she’s reunited with Contreras, up for last year’s win, and she put in a very sharp half-mile work on grass one week ago so certainly could repeat as the winner of this race.

Touriga was coming back from nine months off on 7/20, and making her U.S. debut, when third of three in the weather delayed Matchmaker Stakes on that 100 degree day at Monmouth. It wasn’t really a race in a normal respect but I think she got a lot out of it and for Graham Motion to enter her in this grade 2 off that race tells me she is rounding back to the kind of top form which saw her win a group 1 and a group 2 race in her native Brazil last year, both on turf. The favorites in this race are a bit suspect so opening at 6/1 she offers value as well.

As to one of those favorites, second morning line (5/2) favorite Holy Helena, she’s okay but no standout. She won the similar G2 Dance Smartly Stakes when last seen on June 29 at 10 furlongs and she’s won a pair of stakes at 1 3/16 miles so this nine furlong trip should suit her. The 103 figure earned in the Dance Smartly was the same as when winning the Very One Stakes in March and it’s good, but to be fair and to put it in perspective, Touriga earned a pair of identical figures in her wins in Brazil, Magnetic Charm earned three 98 figures in her last three races which can be improved upon as she’s just three years old, and Starship Jubilee earned 100 and 101 figures in all three races this year. As such, Holy Helena is just as likely, not any more so, to win than many of the others here.

On the other hand, Competition of Ideas is MUCH LESS likely to win than is suggested by her 8/5 staring odds, but I sure hope the public bets her heavily. She won three of seven races last year including the American Oaks, but that was in December and it was restricted to three year olds. She’s winless in four since, with NO excuses, although beaten a neck in two of those races. The only reason the morning linemaker made her such short odds is she’s trained by Brown, but with the filly having a 3-4-3 record I’ll be happy to take a stand against her except for some exotic wagers.

Bets:
Win bets: Magnetic Charm to win at 3 to 1 or more, Starship Jubilee if 3 to 1 or higher.
A smaller win bet on Touriga at 4 to 1 or more is acceptable as well

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Magnetic Charm over Touriga, Holy Helena, Competition of Ideas and Starship Jubilee.
Starship Jubilee over Magnetic Charm, Touriga, Holy Helena and Competition of Ideas.
Touriga over Magnetic Charm, Holy Helena, Competition of Ideas and Starship Jubilee.

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:42 Eastern

As impressive as Got Stormy was beating males in the Fourstardave Handicap last month at Saratoga, Synchrony was equally impressive when winning the King Edward Stakes at Woodbine in late June. Synchrony earned a 109 Equibase figure in that race, not nearly the 114 career-best earned winning the Red Bank Stakes last summer at the distance of the Woodbine Mile, but the manner in which he won suggests he hasn't yet run his best race this year. Lagging back in seventh of eight with a quarter mile to go, Synchrony wheeled out while losing a lot of ground and made up four lengths in less than an eighth of a mile to win in "ridden out" fashion. He had shipped up from trainer Stidham's base at the Fair Hills training center in Maryland for the race and right after that he returned to that location, putting in a series of strong workouts including a "bullet" best of the day workout seven days ago. Now he’s shipping in again and it’s a winning pattern. Synchrony should get a strong pace to run at once again as it appears both Admiralty Pier and American Guru will have to show early speed from outside posts to get good inside position going into the first turn. As a multiple grade two stakes winner and likely to fire a big shot fresh off a two and one-half month layoff as he did in February when winning the Fair Grounds Handicap, Synchrony could be moving fastest of all in the final stages to win this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

Got Stormy has run the two best races of her career in her two most recent starts. That shouldn't come as a surprise as she's still a maturing four year old. Returning from two months off on August 3, Got Stormy won the De La Rose Stakes with a 110 figure, bettering that seven days later with a 118 figure earned in the Fourstardave Handicap. In that race, Got Stormy was 14 lengths back early off a very strong pace and when asked to pick up the tempo she responded very well to draw off by two and one-half lengths at the end. Like Synchrony and unlike some of the other entrants in this race, Got Stormy has familiarity with the Woodbine Turf, having captured the Ontario Colleen Stakes last July in her only previous start on this track. Just the same, trainer Mark Casse is taking no chances, so he gave the filly a strong half-mile workout on the course just one week ago to ensure she is ready to run her best in this race. With her seven career wins at this mile turf trip the best in the field by far, Got Stormy has every right to win her second grade one stakes in a row.

Although I feel Synchrony and Got Stormy are a cut above the rest, there are a few others I would consider as contenders in the race, particularly for exacta wagers. Silent Poet earned a career-best 112 figure when winning the Play the King Stakes at seven furlongs on the course last month. The Woodbine Mile is a one turn race as well and the horse is making his third start off a seven month layoff so he has potential to improve. Lucullan is also making his third start off a layoff and won his two most recent races, including a 113 figure effort in his comeback race in July. The competition he faced in the Lure Stakes last month wasn't nearly as tough as he faces in this race but having won five of nine career races on grass he's shown a lot of competitive spirit to date which can't be taken for granted. Raging Bull (FR) was four lengths behind Got Stormy in the Fourstardave when he began his rally and two and one-half back at the finish. He won the Hollywood Derby last December but is winless in four races since then. However, he could be passing many of these in the stretch.

Bets:
Win Bets: Synchrony and Got Stormy to win at odds of 2/1 or more, noting it's unlikely Got Stormy will make those minimum odds for a win bet. IF Got Stormy goes to post at less than those odds, play an additional exacta as noted below instead of a win bet.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Synchrony and Got Stormy over Synchrony, Got Stormy, Silent Poet, Lucullan and Raging Bull.
The exacta as a win bet (if Got Stormy is less than 2/1) is Got Stormy over Synchrony, Silent Poet, Lucullan and Raging Bull.

Exacta box: Synchrony, Got Stormy, Silent Poet, Lucullan and Raging Bull.

Trifecta: Box Synchrony, Got Stormy, Silent Poet, Lucullan and Raging Bull.

Pebbles Stakes – Race 10 at Belmont - Post Time 5:57 Eastern

I am completely taking a stand against East, the likely second or third betting choice near post time. She finished second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but that was a year ago and her last two races, in May then two months later in July, weren’t much. Yes, I know she’s dropping from group 1 to this non-graded stakes level but not only could she need a race but her form is far different to that before the Breeders’ Cup where she had won a group 3 stakes as this time she ran really badly. There’s also a question of how Blowout deserves to be the 2/1 favorite, although the case can be made that when Chad Brown’s name appears, horses are always a point lower than they should be. She has a 2-3-1 record in six races and since she lost two of those by narrow margins a case can be made she could have five wins, BUT a case can also be made she could still have just two wins BECAUSE she had absolutely NO excuse for losing last out in the Lake Placid after leading through a pokey half-mile and six furlongs and she lost ground in the stretch in the Lake George before that.

The fact Blowout is suspect, although she could easily be part of the exacta, means we have to very playable horses in Eyeinthesky and Feel Glorious, the former much more preferred. Eyeinthesky has won three of eight this year, two of those stakes like this one. Although she hasn’t won past six furlongs, the fact is she’s only run farther three times on turf and I can make the case all three are irrelevant here and MORE IMPORTANTLY she’s a different filly now after two big efforts at Saratoga. She’s bred for the mile and her and 95 figure efforts in her last two starts are ABSOLUTELY as good as the 99 and 98 efforts Blowout put forth in her last two races, yet Eyeinthesky opens at three times the odds (6/1).

Feel Glorious ran very well when coming to the U.S. this winter, with two wins and a runner-up effort, the latter in a grade 3 stakes. She tailed off to finish fourth behind Blowout in a stakes in June then sixth in the Lake Placid, but was only two lengths behind favorite Blowout in that race. Since then she put in a strong half-mile workout, likely in company with East as they both worked the same distance on the same day, and there’s more than a decent shot Feel Glorious can rebound to her form of just a few months ago at a price.

Bets:
Win bets: Eyeinthesky to win at odds of 5/2 or more.
For a smaller amount, Feel Glorious to win at odds of 4/1 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Eyeinthesky and Feel Glorious over Eyeinthesky, Feel Glorious, Blowout and Seek and Destroy (the other Brown trainee).

BONUS RACE - SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 15
Woodbine Cares Stakes - Race 11 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:49 Eastern

Capping off a fantastic pair of racing days at Woodbine, this five furlong sprint stakes for two year olds is very interesting. Even with a few scratches, there are enough lightly raced horses who have ONLY shown a need-the-lead style to toss them all out as contenders and land on the four which are left. Those four are Miss Lucy, Foolish Humor, Quality Heat and Lady Fatima.

Perhaps unfortunately, the first pair of Miss Lucy and Foolish Humor call the barn of top trainer Ward home and may go off as the favorites. Ward won another two year olds stakes last weekend and continues to hum along at nearly a 30% clip in these types of races and both his fillies have shown a lot of talent. Miss Lucy rallied from mid-pack to get up with 50 yards to go in her last start, in England, has been working fantastically for her U.S. debut at Keeneland, adds Lasix and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. to ride. Foolish Humor won a turf sprint at this trip at Belmont in May and recently finished second in the Colleen Stakes but was placed first after being bumped hard at the eighth pole. Miss Lucy looks like the fastest of the pair with a field high 94 last race Equibase figure but I’m confident both can run and if both go they could run first and second.

Quality Heat won in her second career start, first on turf, at seven furlongs here at Woodbine last month, surging late after stalking the pacesetter for the first six furlongs. She has improving to do off a 77 figure effort and is a half-brother to stakes winner Frank Conversation, who won in his turf debut and then won the El Camino Real Derby shortly thereafter. Lady Fatima is one for three but that win came in her only turf start, in May, and it was a fine effort when she made up five lengths from the halfway mark to win. She’s in the Casse barn and must be respected.

Bets: Miss Lucy and Foolish Humor to win at 2 to 1 or more. If one should scratch, the other has minimum odds of 3 to 2.

Exacta and Trifecta: Box Quality Heat, Lady Fatima, Miss Lucy and Foolish Humor.


Friday, 06 September 2019 02:02

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, September 7

Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website.

Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes -Race 6 at Kentucky Downs-Post Time 4:05 Eastern / 3:05 Central

I like the incentive involved in purchasing a horse privately, or claiming it, with a stakes race in mind and in this stakes there are TWO which fit that criteria, both owned by the same connections of Barber, Wachtel and others. They don’t race coupled because of the big purse so if we bet one we must strongly consider the other. They are Alcools and Scocciatore, both opening at 6/1 and both coming off impressive wins. Alcools earned that win in his career debut last month at Woodbine on all-weather for Wayne Rice and Arienne Cox. This is not a disparagement on either but for this horse to win for those connections first out, and as impressively as he did, particularly with Cox aboard, SCREAMS he has talent. Since the win and private purchase he worked a strong half-mile and the trainer is Peter Miller, who won a stakes at double digit odds at Churchill Downs in July off a high priced claim so this is not much different. In the win, Alcools showed maturity rallying from third to draw off to a “ridden out” win and then was flattered when the third finisher came back to win. I expect improvement off the effort and he’s bred to adore the grass.

Scocciatore ran huge when second in his debut at the end of June, regressed to finish fourth in his turf debut, then won as he pleased last month. Purchased since then, he gets Joel Rosario and is a half-brother to multiple winners including one who made over $1.5 million. Although Scocciatore won wire-to-wire he doesn’t appear to be a need-the-lead type and the win came at 7 furlongs, making him one of just a few to have run farther than this 6 ½ furlong trip.

Souper Dormy got up by a nose to win his debut in stylish fashion in July at Ellis Park and that race has turned out to be an ULTRA-KEY race as the second horse won in his next start, the third horse finished second next out and BOTH the fourth and sixth finishers won. This one could be something special as well.

Likely worth small win bets at high odds and definitely worth considering for exacta and trifecta tickets, Cambria and Invader both open at double digit odds and both hail from the strong barn of Wesley Ward, the TOP trainer of two year olds in the field and one of the top trainers in North America. Over the last few years, Ward has won with eight of 30 runners in two year old turf sprint stakes, better than 25%. Cambria is two-for-two and put in a huge half-mile work coming into the race. The only reason she opens at high odds is both wins came on all-weather. Invader didn’t do much when sixth of 10 in his career debut in July BUT he was the 2 to 1 favorite that day, is bred to adore the grass a son of War Front out of a Galileo mare and gets Ward’s go-to Veteran Jockey Julio Garcia, to which I say “BEWARE.”

Bets:
Win Bets: Alcools and Scocciatore to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

I would also consider a small ($2 to $5) win, place and possibly show bet on Cambria and on Invader at odds of 7/1 or more.

Exacta: Box Alcools, Scocciatore, Souper Dormy, Cambria and Invader.

Consider a $0.50 trifecta box as well on those five, for a cost of $30.

Ladies Turf Stakes – Race 8 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 5:28 Eastern / 4:28 Central

Simply Breathless has been superbly handled by veteran Neil Drysdale since coming to the U.S. and making her North American debut in April following seven months. She had won a handicap at Ascot last summer in a field of 10 then took time to acclimate, returning as if she’d never been away when victorious in a little $75K stakes at Golden Gate. Returning less than one month later she made short work of a 10 horse field in the Grade 3 Wilshire Handicap, at a mile, then found the 1 3/16 mile trip of the Modesty Handicap in July just bit too far, fading to third after being second from the start until near the wire. The 109 Equibase figure earned in the Wilshire is one of the best figures in the field and she’s the best in the field at this mile trip, with four wins in eight starts Geroux takes the call and has been riding the course very well so back at the mile this filly may be the one to beat.

The other with the bulk of the probability to win is Mitchell Road, who I absolutely loved as a legitimate favorite in Preakness weekend in the Gallorette Stakes. She did not disappoint as she wired the eight horse field with ease to earn a 107 figure. That was her fourth straight win and to that point she had not been worse than second in seven races. Similar to Simply Breathless finding the distance of her last race too far, Mitchell Road found the grade 1 level too steep, finishing fifth to the likes of Sistercharlie and Rushing Fall, the former having come back to win a grade 1 stakes again since that race. Back at a level where she will be very tough as well as reunited with Rosario, up for the Gallorette when aboard for the first time, Mitchell Road should be very tough in this race as well.

Kallio, Viva Vegas and Storm The Hill are three to use for exactas and trifectas, all having a decent shot to split the two contenders and finish second, but likely a cut below Simply Breathless and Mitchell Road. Kallio ran the best race of her career last month in the prep stakes for this race at Ellis Park. Gaffalione rides back and the 106 figure was decent. Viva Vegas also ran the best race of her career last time out, in July, winning the Indiana Grand General Assembly Distaff, but before that beaten pretty easily when third behind Mitchell Road. Storm The Hill missed by a nose after leading to near the wire in the Yellow Ribbon Handicap last month but was no match for Simply Breathless prior to that.

Then, for some exacta and trifecta tickets, we’ll toss in Sensitive and Ms Bad Behavior, both horses who don’t have a lot of fight when headed late but still who are very competitive, with a combined record of 5-11-3 in 25 combined races on grass.

Bets:
Win Bets: Either or both Simply Breathless and Mitchell Road at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.


Exactas: Simply Breathless and Mitchell Road over Simply Breathless, Mitchell Road, Kallio, Viva Vegas and Storm the Hill.

Trifecta: Simply Breathless and Mitchell Road over Simply Breathless, Mitchell Road, Kallio, Viva Vegas, Storm the Hill, Sensitive and Ms Bad Behavior over Simply Breathless, Mitchell Road, Kallio, Viva Vegas, Storm the Hill, Sensitive and Ms Bad Behavior.

Ladies Sprint Stakes – Race 9 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 6:01 Eastern / 5:01 Central

Oleksandra appears to be a legitimate favorite, opening at 3/1, but as we know about these exceptionally big field races at Kentucky Downs anything can happen to there are three others I will consider almost as likely to win, and definitely likely to hit the board, ALL three at higher odds than Oleksandra. Oleksandra is five for seven in turf sprints since coming to the U.S. last fall, including the Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga last month under Rosario, who is three-for-three aboard the mare. She’s won at the distance and her last race 106 Equibase Figure may not be the top in the field but is one point below the horse with the best figure in the field (Tiny Tina) and tied with Coexistence for the second best. Oleksandra has a mean late kick and is very likely to be in the thick of the action at the finish.

Tiny Tina opens at a fairly ridiculous 10/1 particularly considering she’s won three in a row and gets Jose Ortiz, fresh off winning the Saratoga title in the toughest jockey colony in the world. She cuts back from routes so should have no problem with the trip and the 107 last race figure she earned in a tough allowance field is the best in this race.

Painting Corners, like Tiny Tina, was last seen running very well in California. She won the Daisycutter Handicap in July at Del Mar with a 101 figure and last year put in a 108 figure effort winning at this six and one-half furlong turf trip. Although third in her most recent race, she ran well to a couple of very tough turf sprinters and I expect another top effort good enough to win.

Ruby Notion won this race last year as the 3 to 1 second choice, gamely by a neck in a three horse blanket finish. She hasn’t won in five since but appears to be turning a corner as she finished fast from sixth to third behind Oleksandra last month in the Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga. The connections of Silverton Hill Farm and Darrin Miller won a race on opening day and their horses appear in top shape.

Bets:
Win bets: Oleksandra to win at odds of 5/2 or more, then consider up to TWO more win bets on the two of these three at the highest odds, with minimum odds of 7 to 2 – Tiny Tina, Painting Corners, Ruby Notion.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Oleksandra, Tiny Tina, Painting Corners and Ruby Notion over Oleksandra, Tiny Tina, Painting Corners, Ruby Notion, Coexistence, May Lily and Cool Beans.
Note: In a 12 horse field with lots of profit potential, I feel this exacta, although not cheap, has potential to be well worth the risk.

Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes - Race 10 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 6:35 Eastern /5:35 Central


Although Arklow deserves tremendous respect for his body of work, which includes five first place finishes and four runner-up finishes in 16 career races on grass, his stablemate Factor This is a bit more intriguing from a betting perspective as he is likely to go to post at higher odds than Arklow. Both are trained by Brad Cox, who has proven himself one of the top trainers in the country. Currently fifth in the Trainer Division on the North American Racing Leaders list, Cox's stakes stats this year are as good as those of division leader Chad Brown. Cox has started 121 horses in stakes races this year, winning 27% of those races. I think those statistics show Cox is a trainer who knows when his horses is ready for top levels of competition and in this case Factor This has a good shot to compete although he's never raced at this level. When returning from five months off between last September and March, Factor This ran on dirt, finishing seventh. Moved back to turf on April 24, Factor This controlled the pace to win easily and earned a career-best 105 Equibase figure. He bettered this figure two races later winning the Kentucky Downs Preview Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes last month at Ellis Park with a 109 figure. In 2018, Arklow won that same race with a 111 figure, so the 109 figure Factor This earned looks very similar on paper and can be bettered just like his stablemate did last year when earning a 114 figure in the Turf Cup. Jockey Florent Geroux was aboard Factor This for all three victories this year and has decided to ride Arklow in this race but I'm not concerned one bit about the jockey change to Shaun Bridgmohan. Bridgmohan has been another of the trainer's #1 riders over the past year, teaming up to win 49 of 132 races (37%) together. Another reason I think Factor This can run as well or better in the Turf Cup is based on a STATS Race Lens statistic which shows trainer Cox has kept his charges in top form to win back-to-back in Turf Route races in 34% of 151 starts over the last two years. Even if Factor This doesn't get the early lead as he did in his first two wins of 2019, he proved capable of coming from just off the pace to win the Preview so he could be tough in this situation and post the upset to win over Arklow, who earned a 118 figure in the Bowling Green Stakes at the end of July and who will be closing very fast in the stretch in this year's Kentucky Turf Cup.

Similar to Arklow and Factor This calling the top barn of Brad Cox home, Zulu Alpha and Bigger Picture call the barn of excellent trainer Mike Maker their home. Maker also trains Noble Thought. Zulu Alpha joined the Maker barn last summer and immediately won the Sycamore Stakes at this marathon trip in October. Two races later he won the similar McKnight Stakes and Mac Diarmida Stakes in January and March. In two of four races since, Zulu Alpha has come very close, missing to stablemate Bigger Picture in the Elkhorn Stakes in April and missing by a neck in the United Nations Stakes in June. Even though finishing further back in the Bowling Green Stakes in his most recent race, Zulu Alpha earned a career-best 117 figure and was just a half-length behind third place finisher Arklow. Recent Saratoga riding title winner Jose Ortiz takes the call and rode Zulu Alpha in the Elkhorn, a race in which Ortiz moved the horse mid-race from seventh to take the lead before being passed and ending up third. If Ortiz can help Zulu Alpha save that kind of kick for the stretch drive in the Turf Cup, he could be right there at the finish. Bigger Picture rallied from seventh to miss winning by a half-length in last year's Turf Cup behind Arklow and could run as well or better this year. Since that race he has won the John B. Connally Stakes and Elkhorn Stakes at this 12 furlong distance on grass and was fourth of eight in the United Nations, albeit one and one-half lengths behind stablemate Zulu Alpha. With 12 career wins and $1.6 million in earnings on turf in his career and with top form not far away, Bigger Picture rounds out a quartet I feel has the bulk of the probability to win this race.

For exactas and the like, there are a quartet of horses to consider who may be just a cut below the top four. Botswana earned a career-best 109 figure when beaten a head by Factor This in the Preview, while My Boy Jack was just another head back in third. Although neither is proven at this level on grass yet, considering those figures and how last year's Preview winner Arklow also won this race, I think it would be a mistake to totally ignore their chances to be in-the-money. Similarly, Pillar Mountain won two in a row at 11 furlongs on turf earlier this year, the best with a 106 figure, before trying stakes competition for the first time and finishing sixth in the Sword Dancer Stakes last month. In 2018, Bigger Picture finished eighth in the Sword Dancer before nearly winning this race so this colt may have a look at a minor award as well. Campaign has won five of 11 starts in his career including a race at this 12 furlong distance on both turf and on dirt. He was overmatched in the Pacific Classic in his most recent start but won the Cougar II Handicap on dirt just prior to that with a 111 figure which stacks up nicely with the main contenders in this race if repeated.

Bets: Factor This and Arklow to win at odds of 5/2 or more, adding a place bet on Factor This at 5/1 or more.

Exactas: Box Factor This, Arklow, Zulu Alpha and Bigger Picture.

Factor This, Arklow, Zulu Alpha and Bigger Picture over Factor This, Arklow, Zulu Alpha, Bigger Picture, Botswana, My Boy Jack, Pillar Mountain and Campaign

Friday, 30 August 2019 11:38

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, August 31

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Exacta Systems Juvenile Fillies Stakes-Race 9 at Kentucky Downs-Post Time 5:47 Eastern/4:47 Central

This race, and race 10, the Gainesway Farm Juvenile Stakes, are fantastic betting races. With horses shipping in from everywhere, most only with a maiden win, whoever is the favorite near post time will likely be as high as 4 to 1. As such, multiple win bets and some exactas bets we wouldn’t normally make are called for because the investment is worth the potential return. In this race I’ll start with Fly So Pretty, who has two starts under her belt. The first was a turf sprint at Churchill in June and the second was a turf sprint last month at Saratoga. In that race Fly So Pretty rallied from eighth after encountering enough trouble to cover a couple of paragraphs. Since then, she was flattered when the third horse won and since that effort earned Fly So Pretty the BEST last race Equibase in the field, she should improve as the third horse did and run even better so it would take a BIG jump up by any of the others to beat her if she doesn’t get in traffic trouble she can’t overcome this time. Sire Sky Mesa is the sire of the 2017 One Dreamer Stakes (the seventh race on today’s card) so there’s no question this filly can get the added distance either.

Lemon Scat and Jezebel’s Kitten both broke their maidens at a mile on turf at Ellis Park in their most recent starts and both appear very talented as it’s very tough to win a turf route first time out. Lemon Scat rallied from seventh of nine early and won going away then was flattered when the third horse won right back. Her 74 figure was a nice improvement off her 69 debut figure and she’s moving in the right direction. We all know Kitten’s Joy is a tremendous turf sire but seeing the record of his progeny over the last five years at Kentucky Downs really makes the point. They are 16 for 73 over the track including a 5 for 18 record in stakes. I mention that because Jezebel’s Kitten could add to that number. Since breaking her maiden three weeks ago at first asking, she put in a 47.2 half-mile workout to show she’s getting better every day and the high percentage Cox/Geroux combo gives us more reasons to consider her a contender for all the marbles.

Weekend Fun has sprinted on dirt twice to date so is trying a route and turf for the first time. I’m not concerned about the changes as she’s a daughter of More Than Ready, who had a winner in the More Than Ready Mile (oddly enough) over the course in 2014, trained by Asmussen the same as this gal. She put in a nice work on turf before leaving Saratoga and Leparoux is one of the top jockeys year after year on this unique course so those are more reasons to consider her as well. We’ll round out a quintet with Ask Bailey¸ because when I see the chart caller comments “Drove Past” it means the effort is very impressive. That’s just what Ask Bailey did on 8/11 breaking her maiden at this mile trip, also at Ellis Park, and as a horse with a good deal of improvement possible in her third career start and second route she’s got a shot to be there at the end.

Bets:
Win Bets: Fly So Pretty is the KEY BET to win at 2 to 1 or higher.
Consider a smaller win bet on Lemon Scat at 3 to 1 or more, and perhaps minimum win bets on Weekend Fun at 4/1, on Jezebel’s Kitten at 5 to 1 and on Ask Bailey at 5 to 1 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Fly So Pretty over ALL
Box: Ask Bailey, Weekend Fun, Jezebel’s Kitten, Lemon Scat and Fly So Pretty.

Woodward Stakes – Race 11 at Saratoga - Post Time 6 PM Eastern

Wooderson and Tom’s d’Etat finished second and first, respectively, in the Alydar Stakes over the track at the same nine furlong trip of the Woodward. Tom’s d’Etat was the even money favorite that day while Wooderson was 13 to 1 and although they were separated by a length there’s an odds disparity here as well because Tom’s d’Etat opens at 4 to 1 while Wooderson opens at 12/1. Certainly Wooderson is not as accomplished as Tom’s d’Etat, BUT NOT BY MUCH. Wooderson has a 3-3-0 record in nine races with three of those stakes and only one decent, that being the Alydar. Tom’s d’Etat has a 7-2-1 record in 13 races with five of those stakes, BUT his only stakes win came in the Alydar. In terms of Equibase figures they both earned career-best figures in the Alydar (118 and 116). Leading jockey Jose Ortiz rides Wooderson for the first time, which I think provides more reasons he can turn the tables on Tom’s d’Etat and post the upset here.

Mr. Buff and Bal Harbour are two more with out of line starting odds, particularly as I am not enamored of either morning line favorite Vino Rosso or second choice Yoshida. Vino Rosso has no excuse for the Whitney and has just two third place finishes to show for three races at Saratoga, while last year’s winner Yoshida ran okay, but not fantastic, in the Whitney. Their figures were 108 and 115 so not superior to Wooderson or Tom’s d’Etat by any means. Mr. Buff loves to win and doesn’t really know as a NY bred he may not be that good in open company. He adores this nine furlong trip where he’s six-for-eight with two of those wins at Saratoga including August 7 earning a 111 figure. He earned a 114 figure winning at the trip in January and has the ability to set the pace or stalk the pacesetter so could be in the thick of the action start to finish. Bal Harbour is a lightly raced four year old with a great 5-4-2 record in 16 starts. His best race ever came last month at the trip when a head shy of winning the Monmouth Cup. Castellano gets on and has ridden him to victory previously so opening at 15/1 he can’t be ignored.

For some exactas I’ll also use Preservationist, who ran badly with no excuse at 2 to 1 in the Whitney but who ran sparklers in the Suburban and in an allowance race prior to that. He could rebound to top form but with a 111 best figure that top form may not be good enough to win.

Bets:
Win Bets: Wooderson and Tom’s d’Etat to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Definitely consider win bets on Mr. Buff and on Bal Harbour at odds of 9 to 2 or more. Place bets can be made on any of the contenders at odds of 7 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Tom’s d’Etat over Mr. Buff, Bal Harbour, Vino Rosso, Preservationist, Yoshida and Wooderson.

Mr. Buff, Bal Harbour, Wooderson and Tom’s d’Etat over Mr. Buff, Bal Harbour, Vino Rosso, Preservationist, Yoshida, Wooderson and Tom’s d’Etat.

Mr. Buff, Bal Harbour, Vino Rosso, Preservationist, Yoshida, Wooderson and Tom’s d’Etat over Mr. Buff, Bal Harbour, Wooderson and Tom’s d’Etat. (Note the reason for the first exacta in addition to the other two is we have more combinations if Tom’s d’Etat wins owing to his lower odds and lower exacta payoffs than if any of the other three win).

Gainesway Farm Juvenile Stakes – Race 10 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 6:22 PM Eastern/ 5:22 Central

Automate gets slight preference in another wide open stakes for two year olds, because he opens at 15/1. He broke his maiden four weeks ago at a mile on dirt at Ellis Park and the fact that race was on dirt is the ONLY reason he’s not 4 to 1 to 6 to 1 as some of the horses are who broke their maidens on grass. Automate was stretching out from a sprint and ran that race the way a horse runs on grass, rallying from fifth early and powering off late. The 75 Equibase figure is the second best route figure in the field, with only Peace Achieved having run faster, but his 80 figure, although earned on turf, was earned leading from start to finish. That’s going to be very difficult to repeat here because both Night Time and City Front are stretching out from sprints on dirt and appear to be very fast early. That brings us back to Automate, who was flattered when the runner-up improved nicely to win his next race, as did the SEVENTH place finisher. He’s got the breeding to run big on grass and his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, is one of the most underrated big race trainers in North America, in my opinion.

Are You Kitten Me is a son of Kitten’s Joy, whose progeny stats at Kentucky Downs over the last five years I extolled when discussing the race before this one. He broke his maiden at first asking in a route, at Saratoga, in a 10 horse field, so he could be any kind and win this race for fun with any kind of improvement. Doc Boy broke his maiden at a mile on grass at Laurel and although he beat only three horses it was a very impressive effort with a 74 figure on par with the figure Automate earned. He rallied early from four back then continued to draw off and for a top trainer in Mike Stidham this colt is another we must take very seriously in this race. The Gray Blur added blinkers for his second career start and off a seventh of 12 debut, trying turf and two turns or the first time three weeks ago, and was a different horse as he controlled the pace from start to finish. He does not appear to be a need-the-lead types at Night Time and City Front do because his pace/speed figure combination of 48/68 suggest he put in a nice kick in the last quarter mile. He opens at 15/1 and although a bit less probable than some of the others those odds still appear out of line and warrant including this colt in our wagers. Memorable was highly regarded after breaking his maiden on dirt at first asking in May, running in the Tremont and Sanford Stakes, also on dirt, but running badly. He ran in a stakes for two year olds at Saratoga off those two efforts and ran a lot better, finishing fourth of eight. He gets the rail and Leparoux here and opens at 10/1 as a horse who could move up considerably around two turns for the first time.

Bets: Win bets on two of these three depending on odds, choosing the two at the highest odds of the threeAutomate, Are You Kitten Me and Doc Boy at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

A small win bet is not out of the question on The Gray Blur and on Memorable at odds of 6 to 1 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Memorable, The Gray Blur, Are You Kitten Me, Automate and Doc Boy over Memorable, The Gray Blur, Are You Kitten Me, Automate, Doc Boy, Night Time, Peace Achieved and Longclaw.

John C. Mabee Stakes - Race 7 at Del Mar - Post Time 8:15 PM Eastern/5:15 Pacific

With Vasilika, queen of the Southern California female stakes division, having her bubble burst four weeks ago in the Yellow Ribbon Stakes when third at four to five odds with no excuse, there’s a horse here to get it done, or at least finish second, at likely double digit odds. That horse is La Force, getting a huge jockey change to Smith (no disparagement to Van Dyke intended). La Force opens at 12/1 mostly because she’s 1 for 12 on grass in her career. However, she does fit at the level, having finished second to Unique Bella on dirt in the Beholder Mile and Clement Hirsch Stakes last spring and summer. Then she was second, beaten less than a length in the G1 Zenyatta before a poor eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, followed by a layoff. She came back and ran a respectable second to 10 length winner Paradise Woods, then won the G2 Santa Maria before a third place effort in this year’s Hirsch. Aside from Vasilika, there are no monsters here and her stakes credentials match any of the others so with a trio of turf works since the Hirsch showing us she’s pointing to this race, with efforts on dirt which would win this kind of race if transferred to turf, with prior turf form and with Smith riding, I think La Force is a great bet in this race.

Aside from Vasilika, Toinette, Ahimsa and Juliet Foxtrot are horses I’ll use with La Force on exacta tickets as all three come off nice wins on the grass.

Bets: La Force to win and place at 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas: Box La Force and Vasilika, then play La Force over Vasilika, Toinette, Ahimsa and Juliet Foxtrot.
Play the reverse of that exacta as well, which is Vasilika, Toinette, Ahimsa and Juliet Foxtrot over La Force.


Friday, 23 August 2019 12:34

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, August 24

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Personal Ensign Stakes - Race 9 at Saratoga- Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

There’s a time to play favorites, particularly when they help turn multi-race bets like the pick three into the equivalent of a daily double, and that’s the case here as Midnight Bisou should not lose if she runs as she did in either the Ogden Phipps in June or in the Molly Pitcher last month. In both cases, Mike Smith was sitting on a powder keg in the last quarter mile and barely needed to give her a cue before she accelerated and won. Perhaps there were lesser quality horses in those two races compared to what she faces here but right now, Midnight Bisou is an “alpha” horse and refuses to lose. If she’s in form she wins.

I’ve been a big fan of Elate before she missed by a head in the C.C.A. Oaks over the track two summers ago then crushing the Alabama and Beldame. In the C.C.A. Oaks she probably would have won but Mike Smith, aboard Abel Tasman, kept her inside and intimidated on the rail. The next time she met Abel Tasman was in last year’s running of this race, and once again Smith “race rode” Ortiz enough to win by a neck. Then Elate finished second to Midnight Bisou twice this year in her first and second starts as a five year old and even though she won the Fleur de Lis and Delaware Handicap since then, the fact Midnight Bisou has her number and just as importantly the fact Smith is one of the best at knowing what to do during a race, Elate is unlikely to win in my opinion.

There’s some value in a couple of others under Midnight Bisou for exactas and the trifecta, most notably Coach Rocks, who finished second to Midnight Bisou in the Molly Pitcher at six to one but who opens at 20 to 1 here, and also Golden Award, who has run two big races in a row at this nine furlong trip including the Shuvee last month over the track.

Bets: The most important bet in this race is the pick 3, because it’s the bet to make instead of a win bet on a prohibitive favorite like Midnight Bisou. I like two tickets in this sequence:

Race 9 Midnight Bisou
Race 10 Channel Cat, Ya Primo, Annals of Time, Channel Maker
Race 11 Mucho Gusto, Tax

Race 9 Midnight Bisou
Race 10 Channel Cat, Ya Primo, Annals of Time, Channel Maker
Race 11 Mucho Gusto, Tax, Owendale, Code of Honor, Highest Honors, Tacitus

Exacta: Midnight Bisou over Coach Rocks and Golden Award.
Trifecta: Midnight Bisou over Elate, Coach Rocks and Golden Award over Elate, Coach Rocks and Golden Award.

Sword Dancer Stakes – Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 4:49 PM Eastern

As usual, or as it seems is always the case, Chad Brown has a bunch of horses in this race, three to be exact. Two of them – Proven Reserves and Annals of Time, are both owned by Klaravich Stables and for the life of me I couldn’t figure out why Proven Reserves was entered as he’s still eligible for the first allowance level. Then I realized there’s NO Early Pace in this race so it’s highly likely Proven Reserves is entered as a “Rabbit” to insure a decent pace for his stablemate. However, rabbits often assist other horses, and that’s why I am giving Ya Primo slight preference here because, unlike Annals of Time, Ya Primo has won at this marathon 12 furlong trip. Winner of three straight graded stakes races in his native Chile, Ya Primo took four months to acclimate before making his U.S. debut in the Bowling Green Stakes over the course at 11 furlongs last month. After some early trouble, Ya Primo rallied but could not hold off Channel Cat, who had led from the start. Trying to keep that scenario from occurring again is EXACTLY the reason Brown entered Proven Reserves here, to go with Channel Cat from the start and keep him honest so he isn’t allowed to crawl on the lead as he did in the Bowling Green. Likely to improve nicely second off the layoff and tied for the best last Equibase figure (118) in the field, Ya Primo could earn his first grade 1 win in the Northern Hemisphere to go along with his Group 1 win in Chile last March.

Annals of Time made his second start off a long 21 month layoff a winning one last month, over the course, three days before Ya Primo ran, earning a 108 figure which can be improved upon again. As a three year old in the fall of 2016, Annals of Time won the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in only the fourth start of his career, then took nine months off and won again before the long layoff he came back from in June. He’s a supremely talented horse and it must be noted BOTH he and Ya Primo put in the same TWO workouts coming into this race, both on the Saratoga turf, on August 9 and 16 so they could come together at the wire here.

Channel Cat and Channel Maker round out a quartet of contenders for bets we make involving this race. Channel Cat may not need the lead to win as he did last time out, because he won the Bald Eagle Derby last September when second for the first six furlongs, four lengths behind the leader. However, since this race looks devoid of early speed on paper, unless Brown tips his hand or Pletcher (who trains Channel Cat) figures it out, they will use the same tactics which worked last month in the Bowling Green. However, if Proven Reserves is sent to the lead, Channel Cat is capable of repeating his Bald Eagle Derby effort and can stalk the pacesetter and perhaps hold off the pair of Brown runners. Channel Maker was beaten less than a length in a blanket finish in the Bowling Green, which he won last year before a runner-up effort in this race. Rosario rides him well and he too can lay close up early so has a shot to make the last run and win.

Bets: Ya Primo to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Exactas: Box Ya Primo, Annals of Time, Channel Cat and Channel Maker.

Play the King Stakes – Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern

Admiralty Pier NEVER HAD A CHANCE to run in the stretch in his last race, a $100K classified allowance which two of the other five come out of. Winner Silent Poet was ridden marvelously by Boulanger as he protected the rail the entire lane and El Tormenta closed outside for second while Admiralty Pier was hopelessly trapped. He gets a jockey change to Contreras and although leading rider Da Silva gets off, Contreras knows how to ride the colt as he was aboard for an eighth to first rallying win in the Display Stakes aboard the horse in the fall of 2017. With two nice workouts coming into this race and making his second start after five months off, Admiralty Pier can spring the slight upset and make us money as he opens at 6 to 1.

Bets: Admiralty Pier to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Travers Stakes - Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:44 PM Eastern


I've been lucky enough to catch a couple of upset winners in the Travers Stakes in two of the past five years in Catholic Boy and V. E. Day and I'm hopeful to have the same success with Tax or Mucho Gusto this year, as the pair look to have the bulk of the probability to succeed even in this deep and talented field. I'll give Tax the slightest preference of the two, given that he won the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga last month. Earning a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure in that race, Tax showed excellent tactical speed while stalking the pacesetter in second during the early stages. Taking the lead with about a quarter mile to run, Tax then dug in to hold off Tacitus by three-quarters of a length in very good fashion. Earlier this year, Tax proved himself at the level with a win in the Withers Stakes before finishing second behind Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. After a no-excuse 15th place effort in the Kentucky Derby, Tax stalked the pacesetter in second in the Belmont Stakes from the start before tiring to fourth. Since the Jim Dandy, Tax has shown he is in even better physical condition, with a sensational half-mile workout at Saratoga eight days ago which was the best of 64 that day at the distance. The mile and one-quarter distance is of no concern either as Tax is a son of Arch, whose sons and daughters (according to a STATS Race Lens query) have won or placed in three of six races at the classic distance to date, including 2019 Suburban Stakes winner Preservationist. As such, and with the second leading jockey at the Saratoga meet, Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle, I think we will see Tax running the best race of his career to win the Travers.

Mucho Gusto shipped cross-country from trainer Bob Baffert's base at Del Mar following a strong five furlong workout on August 19 in 59.2 which was the best of 46 on the day and impressed Baffert enough to make the trip. Having won the Travers back-to-back in 2016 with Arrogate and 2017 with West Coast, Baffert certainly knows when a horse in his care is good enough for this race. Mucho Gusto has never finished worse than third in eight races. His most recent effort, when second in the Haskell Invitational on July 20, was his best yet as he earned a 107 figure and was eight lengths clear of the third horse while beaten a length and one-quarter by Maximum Security. That being his fourth straight race in which he improved his figure, Mucho Gusto also appears likely to run even better in the Travers than he did in the Haskell, setting up what could be a memorable battle with Tax in the stretch.

About some of the others:
Tacitus has run very consistently all year, with 105, 106, 107, 103 and 105 figures. In two of those races, the Jim Dandy and the Wood Memorial, Tacitus had significant trouble at the start. He overcame the trouble to win the Wood Memorial but only managed second in the Jim Dandy and some people feel he might have won without stumbling at the start in that race. Blinkers go on for the Travers and although Bill Mott is undoubtedly one of the best trainers around, I have concerns about an equipment change for a big race such as this one, particularly as a STATS Race Lens query tells us Mott's record with adding blinkers for the first time is 4-for-78 in the past two years. As such, I will consider Tacitus a contender to finish second or third but not as a win contender in this race.

Similarly, Code of Honor appears to be a cut below Tax and Mucho Gusto in that he earned a 101 figure winning the Dwyer Stakes in early July. Prior to that, Code of Honor finished third in the Derby then was moved up to second via the disqualification of Maximum Security, earning a 108 figure. He's certainly proven competitive at the top level in the division but even a repeat of his effort in the Dwyer doesn't appear good enough to beat either Tax or Mucho Gusto if they repeat their most recent efforts, and certainly not if they improve upon them.

Owendale earned a 114 figure winning the Ohio Derby in June, which is the best figure earned by any horse in the Travers field. However, the time off between that race and the Travers is a concern in that physical condition is a key to running well at this mile and one-quarter distance. However, with his late running style, Owendale is likely to be last or nearly so in the early stages of the Travers and could pass many tired horses in the last quarter mile to get in the money.

Highest Honors is one more who may have a say in the minor awards. He has finished first or second in all three races including winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga last month. The 102, 96 and 101 figures he has earned are decent enough but there's no pattern suggesting improvement and no suggestion he can jump up to the level needed to win the race.

Bets: Mucho Gusto and Tax to win at 2 to 1 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Mucho Gusto and Tax over Mucho Gusto, Tax, Owendale, Highest Honors, Code of Honor and Tacitus.

Mucho Gusto, Tax, Owendale, Highest Honors, Code of Honor and Tacitus over Mucho Gusto and Tax.

Trifectas: Mucho Gusto and Tax over Mucho Gusto and Tax over ALL.
Mucho Gusto and Tax over ALL over Mucho Gusto and Tax.


Friday, 16 August 2019 12:49

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, August 17

Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website.

Del Mar Handicap - Race 7 at Saratoga- Post Time 8 PM Eastern, 5 PM Pacific

Oscar Dominguez was 5 to 2 at post time in his most recent start, in June in the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano Stakes at one mile and three-quarters on turf. He ran very well as he was three paths wide at multiple points in the race and he closed creditably from eight back early to be beaten a half-length at the wire when second. Oscar Dominguez won at nine furlongs on grass prior to that, that race his second following nearly three months off and second since Baltas claimed him, with none of the three races since the claim races in which the horse could be claimed. This goes to how this top trainer feels about the gelding, which is important because he has a MUCH bigger chance to win then is suggested by his 12/1 opening odds here. Nearly one year ago to the day, Oscar Dominguez made a big move from seventh to lead in the stretch at this 11 furlong grass trip at Del Mar, run down late by Marckie’s Water but clearly second at 3 to 1 odds. Marckie’s Water went on to win the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham in May for Baltas, who apparently remembered how well Oscar Dominguez ran when deciding to claim in February. Now with two “A” races in a row under his belt, reunited with Talamo, who rode him to a win last October, and with the ground saving rail, Oscar Dominguez is a top contender in this race.

Ritzy A.P. also opens at high 12/1 odds and has something in common with Oscar Dominguez in that he was a head behind Marckie’s Water when third in the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes over the course last month. He missed by a half-length off a long nine month layoff before that and his third off the layoff effort could be a big effort.

Marckie’s Water has no knocks as he’s one-for-one at this 11 furlong turf trip and a Grade 2 stakes winner on turf. Pereira has ridden in three straight to two wins and the runner-up effort last month in the Eddie Read and the horse could easily win for the seventh time in his 18th career turf race.

We have value trying multiple exacta combinations because two of the three main contenders open at double digit odds so we will include United, The Great Day and Itsinthepost on some exacta tickets as well as on pick 3 tickets we play.

Bets: Both Oscar Dominguez and Ritzy A.P. to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. “IF” Marckie’s Water is near 3 to 1 at post time I wouldn’t hesitate making a win bet on him as well.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta Boxes:
Oscar Dominguez, Ritzy A.P., Marckie’s Water and The Great Day.
Oscar Dominguez, Ritzy A.P., Marckie’s Water and Itsinthepost.
Oscar Dominguez, Ritzy A.P., Marckie’s Water and United

Doubles: Oscar Dominguez, Ritzy A.P. and Marckie’s Water in Race 7 with Into Chocolate, Classic Fit and Hollywood Hills in Race 8.

Torrey Pines Stakes – Race 8 at Del Mar - Post Time 8:30 PM Eastern, 5:30 Pacific


With a hot early pace expected courtesy of Kim K, Colonel Creed, Sneaking Out and Fighting Mad, all who have only shown a tendency to want to be in front and all who are drawn outside and will have to go fast to clear each other as well as the inside horses, Into Chocolate can get it done even if she is bet down below a ridiculous 12/1 morning line. She has improved in each of her last two starts, both at this mile trip, following her sprint debut, from 77 to 86 to a 99 Equibase figure and even though second last out that figure is second only to Fighting Mad as the best in the field, with that one’s figure earned in a sprint. Smith stays on and blinkers go on because in the stretch last out Into Chocolate didn’t pass after rallying on the turn. Those changes and the rail which allows her to sit tight in fourth early as the speedballs duel should help get her home on top here.

Classic Fit has done little wrong in five races, winning three times in a row before a runner-up effort in the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont. That was a ONE TURN race but she did win around two turns twice before that. The problem is the Mother Goose was a low rated race which only earned Classic Fit a 79 figure which gets her nothing here if repeated. However she had been off for six months before that so I expect her to improve.

Hollywood Hills won the seven furlong Fleet Treet Stakes for Cal-breds over the track last month, a career-best effort. She can get the extra furlong and loves to win, leading the field with a 6-for-12 career mark. Leparoux is in to ride other stakes and takes the call and the jock fits her closing style so opening at 12/1 we must consider her a contender.

Bets: Into Chocolate to win at odds of 3/1, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.
For a slightly smaller amount, Hollywood Hills to win at 5 to 1, adding a place bet at 7 to 1 or more.

Exactas: Box Into Chocolate, Classic Fit and Hollywood Hills.
Into Chocolate, Classic Fit and Hollywood Hills over ALL (because one of the pacesetters could hold on for second).

Del Mar Oaks - Race 9 at Del Mar - Post Time 9 PM Eastern, 6 Pacific

Hidden Message gets the slightest preference in a race in which nearly every one of the can win. Leading jockey Prat picks this filly making her U.S. debut and for good reason as she may have a class edge on these. She finished fourth, beaten a neck for third in the Group 3 Prix de Sandringham Stakes in June then she won a stakes race last month. She gets Lasix and has a mean kick and appears ready to run as well here as she did in Europe, which means she is likely better than any of these as those European fillies are much further along at this time of year.

Cambier Parc is the best of the rest as she’s one of two shipping in from New York for Brown with the other being Dogtag. Cambier Parc has won ALL three turf races she’s been in when the top three year old turf filly in the country, Concrete Rose, hasn’t been in the race. She got the last eighth of a mile in the Wonder Again Stakes on June 6 in 11 seconds, which is flying, so expect a big finish from this gal.

Both Hard Legacy and Maxim Rate have starting odds completely out of line with their probability to win in my opinion, with Mucho Unusual about the right odds (5/1) for her chances of success. Hard Legacy won a graded stakes at this nine furlong trip, the Regret Stakes, when last seen two months ago and Leparoux comes in to ride, giving up a whole day of mounts in New York. Hard Legacy won the first two starts of her career as well, both turf routes, so getting back into winning form after a couple of defeats following those first wins signals another big race could be forthcoming. Maxim Rate won the Senorita Stakes in May after coming up a nose shy at this nine furlong trip in the Providencia Stakes in April. She didn’t run as well in the Honeymoon (won by Lady Prancealot) but rallied pretty nicely at a mile in the San Clemente Stakes last month and could be putting in a nice late run at double digit odds. Mucho Unusual rallied from last of 10 under Smith to win the San Clemente, her third straight victory, and figures to be a factor once again.

Apache Princess, Dogtag, Lady Prancealot and Out of Balance have a look at the outcome as well in a wide open race.

Bets: This is where paying attention to the odds, and using a dutching tool, can come in especially handy. Hidden Message gets first preference for win bets at 5 to 2 or higher, with Cambier Parc playable to win at the same level but that’s unlikely as she may be bet heavily.

Hard Legacy, Maxim Rate and Mucho Unusual can be played for lesser amounts if 9 to 2 or higher, adding a place bet on any of them at 7 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Probably just for $1, Box Hidden Message, Cambier Parc, Hard Legacy, Maxim Rate and Mucho Unusual.

Doubles: ALL in race 9 with Campaign in race 10.
Hidden Message, Cambier Parc, Hard Legacy, Maxim Rate and Mucho Unusual in race 9 with Quip and Seeking the Soul in race 10.


Pacific Classic - Race 10 at Del Mar - Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern, 6:30 Pacific

Campaign is a lightly raced four year old who knows how to win, with five victories in 10 starts. Having shifted to the barn of top trainer John Sadler prior to his first start of 2019 in February, Campaign won that race with a stirring rally from ninth. He then stepped up in class to compete in the Santa Anita Handicap where he was not disgraced checking in fourth. Just eight days later on April 14, Campaign won the Tokyo City Stakes before shipping to New York to miss by a total of three-quarters of a length in a four horse blanket finish in the Brooklyn Handicap. Returning to his home base in southern California, Campaign won the Cougar II Handicap over the track last month in his most recent race. Those last four efforts earned strong Equibase figures of 110, 112, 109 and 111 which are as good as the 109 figure Seeking the Soul earned winning the Stephen Foster Stakes in June which will likely be one of the reasons Seeking the Soul is favored by the public to win this race. Cutting back from 12 furlongs to 10 furlongs is one factor in Campaign running as well or better in the Pacific Classic as he did in the Cougar. Another is the fact that John Sadler is one of the best trainers on the circuit, if not in North America, in graded stakes dirt routes. A STATS Race Lens query yields over the last five years Sadler has won 28 of 117 starts in these types of races, with 49% of those runners finishing in the money as well. As such, Campaign gets top billing to win this year's Classic.

Quip is another lightly raced horse with tremendous upside potential as we move towards the Breeders' Cup Classic in November. Not only has he won four of nine career starts, we can make cases two of the five he did not win are irrelevant as one was his only try on a sloppy track he did not care for and the other came in a race where he had significant traffic issues. Consistently improving this year from a 100 figure when third in the Hal's Hope Stakes in February, to a 105 figure in the Oaklawn Handicap in April, Quip took another big step forward in the Stephen Foster. Facing the much more accomplished Seeking the Soul, Quip battled head and head for the lead with Tom's d'Etat for most of the early portions of the race then with Seeking the Soul for the length of the stretch before yielding by a neck on the wire. That effort earned a 108 figure and with another logical step forward Quip could turn the tables on Seeking the Soul at the least and very possibly run well enough to win.

Seeking the Soul makes his third start since traveling half way across the world to compete in the Dubai World Cup in March so he could run even better than when winning the Foster in June with a 109 figure. He earned the same figure in January when well beaten but clearly second in the Pegasus World Cup and his best effort came in the fall of 2017 when winning the Clark Handicap with a 117 figure. The one question regarding Seeking the Soul winning the Classic¸ however, is the same one facing nine of the 10 entrants in the race, as only Tenfold has won at the distance.

Honorable mention and consideration for use on exacta tickets must go to Tenfold, Mongolian Groom and Draft Pick. Tenfold won the 2018 Jim Dandy Stakes at nine furlongs with a 108 figure. What followed was a three race losing streak before he won the Pimlico Special at the distance of the Classic in May with a 102 figure. He was ninth in the Foster while never showing a bit of interest but if he rebounds to his Pimlico Special form he can run well. Mongolian Groom and Draft Pick ran well over the track last month in the San Diego Stakes, with winner Catalina Cruiser passing the Classic. Earning 114 and 112 figures, respectively, I can see either or both of these two horses being in the money in the Classic to complete the exacta or trifecta.

Bets: Campaign to win at 2 to 1 or more.
For a slightly smaller amount, Quip to win at 5 to 2 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Campaign, Quip and Seeking the Soul over Campaign, Quip, Seeking the Soul, Tenfold, Mongolian Groom and Draft Pick.

For half to two-thirds the amount of the exacta above (for example $1 if you play $2 on the combinations above):
Campaign, Quip, Seeking the Soul, Tenfold, Mongolian Groom and Draft Pick over Campaign, Quip and Seeking the Soul.