Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:06 PM EasternI think four horses combined have the bulk of the probability to win this race. Put another way if this race was run 100 times, one of these four would win about 90 times in 100 in my opinion. The four are Muggsmatic, Second Mate, Curlin’s Honor and March to the Arch. Of the quartet, preference should go to Muggsmatic because he’s the only one of the group to have run in December, the rest coming back from two or three month layoffs. Muggsmatic won that last start, the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes, at this distance on this course, and he not only did so with a career best 108 Equibase figure and Lopez up then as now, but he also earned the win right off the claim by Jason Servis. The gelding has now…
Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:03 PM EasternI think four horses can win this race – Masterday, Moon Over Miami, Tiz Rye Time and Sounion. The first and third of the quartet open at double digit odds and both have chances to succeed much greater than those odds suggest. Masterday won as he pleased in his debut in November in a field of 12 and decently regarded at 6 to 1. Sent to post at 9 to 2 in a first level allowance like this one, at a mile, in December he was moving up fantastically on the inside when steadied so hard he had to go back to last of eight, losing all chance. It wasn’t Luis Saez’ fault, but nevertheless today Masterday gets a jockey change to Lopez which can’t hurt. As a son of New Year’s Day, a hot sire in 2019, Masterday should…
Glitter Woman Stakes - Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:30 PM EasternTale of Success, Sound Machine and Spanish Point comprise the top three contenders to win this six and one-half furlong sprint for three year old fillies. Of the trio, Tale of Success is the ONLY one playable to win if her morning line odds of 8/1 hold up (or anything close), compared to 3 to 1 and 5 to 2 for the other two. Tale of Success showed a ton of maturity winning her only start on 11/29, relaxing in fourth/fifth early then moving up to lead by a length at the eighth pole before coasting to the wire on top. She’s a half-sister to stakes winner C Z Rocket so there’s no doubt she’s got the quality to run well, improving nicely off the experience of a race and getting John Velazquez to ride as…
San Antonio Stakes - Race 5 at Santa Anita - Post Time 4 PM Eastern, 1 PM PacificMidcourt appears highly probable to win his third straight stakes race, second graded stakes, following his return from two months off at the end of October. He’s won four in a row, starting in June, the last win on 11/23 his best effort yet when dominating by almost six lengths in the Native Diver Stakes five weeks ago. He’s earned back-to-back 114 Equibase figures, which gives him a “Double Advantage” because those two are better than the last two of any horse in the field. He can win on the lead (as he did in the Native Diver) or he can win from off the pace as he did when rallying from seven lengths back to win the Comma to the Top Stakes in October, so there are no concerns dependent upon various…
My Charmer Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3 PM EasternTake These Chains can post the upset, opening at 12/1. She won four of her first eight races through November 2018 and is winless in four since BUT two of those were grade 3 stakes and the other was a comeback turf sprint in October. There a few keys to her returning to form good enough to win, the first being that trainer Colebrook does very well with horses coming back from two to six months off as she is and another is Colebrook uses Saez sparingly but they do very well together. The rest appears to have done her a lot of good as she put in a sharp half mile (47.4) workout coming into the race, and her best effort, when fourth of nine and beaten a few lengths to Vasilika in the Grade…
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website. Winter Memories Stakes - Race 2 at Aqueduct - Post Time 12 Noon Eastern Tuned showed her cards as being something special in her U.S. debut in October at Keeneland when she rallied from eighth of 11, still seventh with a quarter mile to go, then easily drove past six horses to draw off late. She had been off for six months prior to that but was well regarded at 5 to 2 in a stakes in France in March after breaking her maiden at first asking in a 15 horse field last October. Castellano rode her in her win and rides back and she beat older in that race so although stepping up to stakes she moves to three year olds only here so it's not really a hike in class. The 100 Equibase figure earned is not…
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website. James F. Lewis III Stakes - Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 2:51 PM Eastern The bulk of the probability to win lies with Raging Whiskey and Newstome, with morning line favorite Tuggle vulnerable on two counts. Tuggle won his debut at five furlongs leading from start to finish in June then finished third in the Saratoga Special after leading early, before two routes. So, either he's a need the lead type but won't get the lead as Raging Whiskey is faster early and inside of him in the gate, or the routes dulled his early speed, which will allow Raging Whiskey an easy early lead as none of the three horses inside him in the gate are faster. Raging Whiskey ships out from California after his second poor try on grass in his last three races. In…
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website. Pumpkin Pie Stakes - Race 7 at Aqueduct - Post Time 2:50 PM Eastern Honor Way is a bit of an in-and-out type but with six wins in 20 career dirt races, some of her best races could win here and give her a mild upset at 6/1 on the morning line. Two of those six career wins on dirt have come at seven furlongs, including last month at Belmont. Although it was in a starter allowance race, the mare ran third in the Interborough Stakes at Aqueduct in January to Dawn the Destroyer, who ran big in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last week, and she enters the race off a that strong win with a 96 Equibase figure which best is the figure among ALL in this field except Majestic Reason, who I think is…
 This week's blog features special daily double wagers tying the Juvenile Fillies on Friday to the Distaff on Saturday and tying the Juvenile on Friday to the Classic on Saturday. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Race 7 at Santa Anita on Friday 11/1 - Post Time 5:32 PM Eastern/2:32 Pacific It appears my choice of win contenders matches up with what the public is going to do as my two win contenders are Donna Veloce and British Idiom. Still, I wouldn’t argue with anyone who considered #6 Bast, #9 Comical or #7 Wicked Whisper contenders coming out of excellent preps for this race, but I will stop with the top two who I feel stick out against the other seven. The benefit of this race having only a couple of selections, with three back-ups, is it gives us a little value for the special daily double tying the Juvenile Fillies…
Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website. Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 4:07 pm Eastern Magic Star made my small “horses to watch” list off her maiden win on August 24. Horses rarely go on my list off a win because in my opinion the purpose of such a list is to note horses who had trouble and may finish better in a subsequent start. However, occasionally a horse runs so well in a race I want to follow it. Magic Star is such a horse, as her turf route win in her career debut was not only visually impressive but fast as well. Bumped at the start to begin 10th of 12, she rallied steadily from 10 lengths back, to seven, to three, to power off by two lengths and in spite of encountering traffic at the quarter pole. Jose Ortiz rides back…