Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May 30, 2020Honeymoon Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern/ 3:30 PacificParkour may have a significant edge over the other eight fillies in the field as she is very likely the “lone front runner” in the group and that makes her the one to beat. In her third career start last December, first on turf and first around two-turns, Parkour established a clear lead before the field had rounded the first turn and went into cruising mode, giving no other horse in the field of 12 a chance to get close while coasting home by two and one-half lengths. She never made the lead in the Blue Norther in her next start but after a three month rest returned to win even more easily on March 22. In that race, Mike Smith rode for the first…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 23 2020Race 4 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern/ 2:07 PacificTiz Wonderfully starts out a decent sequence of races including two stakes, opening at 5/1. Even if she goes to post at half those odds she’s a KEY BET on the day as she sticks out. Not only does she lead the field in career wins with 4 (in 10 dirt starts) she just beat “open” (not restricted claimers) so this move into allowance ranks for California Breds is NOT a raise in class. Her last race 95 Equibase figure, earned at this distance over the track, tops the field, and she’s got the ability to win leading from start to finish or to sit in third or second early and take over. Bets: Win: Tiz Wonderfully to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more, a…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 16 2020Echo Eddie Stakes - Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:06 PM Eastern/ 3:06 PacificAlthough Big Sweep (a filly entered against males in this race) won her career debut and only start leading from start to finish, there is evidence she is not a need-the-lead type and won’t get caught up in the likely early pace battle between Stir the Pot, Project Leader and Bettor Trip Nick. Outside of that trio in the gate, Big Sweep may find herself in a great spot in fourth as the field moves down the backstretch, enabling her to take over on the turn and hold off any closers. In that debut Big Sweep earned a field high 99 Equibase Speed Figure and should improve in her second career start. It’s interesting to note trainer Glatt entered her in the race instead…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 9 2020Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:30 PM EasternHoney Won’t gets a BIG jockey change from Meneses to Saez after a poor sixth place effort to similar last month. That followed two and one-half months off and a sharp five length win over the course. A lightly raced four year old, he’s won three of 12 on grass but more importantly two were routes at Gulfstream and with a rock solid 109 Equibase Speed Figure effort, best in the field, to run back to from the 1/26/20 effort he could be the one to beat. Shootin the Breeze also makes his second start off a layoff, finishing fourth both before and after the rest. That last effort with a 100 figure, combined with Rosario getting on, gives him a good shot to improve and be a strong factor…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For May, 2 2020Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:21 PM EasternKid Bourbon appears to have a decent edge in this race but being as this is a first level allowance and he’s just one-for-seven we have to look at some others as well, at least for double and pick 3 tickets. Kid Bourbon finished fast from fifth to second against slightly tougher (no optional claiming component) last time out and Lopez sticks as he moves from turf to dirt. He earned his only win on dirt in a one turn mile, just like this race, last December and a repeat of that effort could be good enough to get him career win #2. Beau Luminarie won by seven lengths at the trip one before last over the track then completely regressed to finish ninth of 12 last time out. Saez…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 25Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:48 PM EasternFreedom Force finished second to an eight length winner in his debut on 2/28, in a one turn mile race then cut back to six furlongs on 3/21 for career start number two. He pressed the pace in third in that sprint, moved up to a half-length from the leader at the top of the stretch then tired. Those two preps set him up exceptionally well for a route today, particularly if the race stays on turf as scheduled. He put in a turf workout recently and being a son of American Pharoah should take to turf like a duck takes to water. A STATS Race lens query shows me sons and daughter of the champion have won seven of 24 races when trying turf for the first time in a…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 18Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:53 PM EasternMintd was coming back from a pretty long layoff of 20 months off last month yet won like a good thing at the one lower NW1X allowance level, rallying from ninth of 10 after breaking slowly and going wide into the first turn. She put in two very strong workouts, on grass, since raced at Palm Meadows and gets Gaffalione for a very sharp trainer in Walsh. As she’s logical to improve second off the long layoff and has been off for 42 days, which reduces any chance of regression, she gets slight preference among three win contenders here. Rideforthecause also makes her second start off a layoff. She returned from three months off on March 27 and ran fourth from start to finish. She improved significantly second off a 14…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 11Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:54 PM EasternGogo Shoes showed a lot of maturity winning last month in her second career start, stalking in second and third early and drawing off by four lengths in a field of 12. She’s got a lot of improving to do and the 80 last race Equibase figure is the third best in the field. The top last race figure horse in the field, Boerne (88) earned her win (also in career start #2) leading from start to finish and gets the rail. Lastchanceforlove earned an 81 figure and also when leading from start to finish. I’m going to root for a big pace battle between Lastchanceforlove and Boerne which puts Gogo Shoes in a great spot to win her second in a row. Chart won after stalking in second, in her…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For April 4Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:18 PM EasternLady Panda gets the ground saving rail and has a great stalking style in a race with at least three “need the lead” types (Callie California, Ms Headley and Yolanda’s Pride) likely to set a fast pace which helps her out a lot. I think we can ignore her first five races even though three were excellent. The reason is the only two races relevant to her chances to succeed today where her last two, both since adding blinkers. She rallied for second in the first of the two on 1/31 then on 3/6 next out she rallied from fifth to draw off late, at the same mile trip at this race and under Gaffalione, who rides here. The 90 Equibase figure earned is better than BOTH favorites, Ghostly Beauty and…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For March 28Orchid Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:17 PM EasternKelsey’s Cross opens at 10/1 and I expect those odds to hold up because the filly is just two for 10 in her career and hasn’t won since September. After breaking her maiden last May on the Gulfstream Turf, she was stakes placed (third) in three straight stakes on turf before dropping to the first allowance level to win, again on the Gulfstream Park grass. After a poor race last October and two poor efforts to start her four year old campaign, Kelsey’s Cross may have shown signs of turning a corner three weeks ago in the Hillsborough Stakes. In that race she lagged last of 11 for the first seven furlongs of the nine furlong trip then split horses late to end up third, beaten three-quarters of…