Ellis Starr's Blog - AmWager

  • 01
    NOV

    Key Races & Bets for Friday, November 2

    Marathon Stakes - Race 10 at Churchill Downs- Post Time 6:43 PM Eastern Time

    Honorable Duty has NEVER raced past a mile and one-eighth in 20 starts so this 12 furlongs could be an issue BUT both his breeding AND trainer's record are in his favor. Sire Distorted Humor has a couple of marathon distance winners from seven starters in the last five years and trainer Walsh won the 2016 Marathon (on Breeders' Cup weekend) with Scuba, saddled the 2nd place finisher in the race in 2014 and the 3rd place horse in 2013 so apparently knows whether his horses have a shot in this kind of race. Honorable Duty is just shy of having earned $1 million in his career and was 2nd in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster over the track in June so there are no questions of class or liking the track, particularly as he has won 4 of his other 9 races here. North American leading jockey Jose Ortiz rides for the first time and that's a big plus as well.

     

    Rocketry won the mile and five-eighths distance last time out on 9/30 at Belmont, Rosario up for the 1st time and riding back, so he has to be considered a strong contender, while Big Dollar Bill is the only horse in the field to have ever run this 1 3/4 mile trip and particularly to have won at it as he did so in August in the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga with Landeros aboard as today. Big Dollar Bill enters the race off a win at 1 1/16 miles last month and his Birdstone win was also earned off a win at the 1 1/16 mile distance so all signs are "GO" for a top effort once again.  

    Win Bets: Honorable Duty to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Also Consider Rocketry for a win bet as well, at odds of 5 to 2 or more. If Big Dollar Bill happens to go to post at 4 to 1 or more, I'd make a win bet there as well, for a smaller amount than either Honorable Duty or Rocketry.

    When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exactas: Honorable Duty, Rocketry and Big Dollar Bill over Honorable Duty, Rocketry, Big Dollar Bill, War Story and Dabster.

    Play the reverse of that exacta as well, so we win twice if any two of the top three finish first AND second. That bet is Honorable Duty, Rocketry, Big Dollar Bill, War Story and Dabster over Honorable Duty, Rocketry and Big Dollar Bill.

    Lure Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:52 PM Eastern Time, 3:52 Pacific

    Alert Bay is an absolute standout and a likely low odds overlay. He has won 9 of 19 career starts on turf, four of those at Santa Anita including the Grade 1 Mathis Brothers Mile in 2014. He's five for eight at the trip and a true miler and he's ONLY eligible for this restricted stakes because he has started twice this year and his win when last seen on September 3 came in a stakes race with the winner's share being $30K. This race is only open to horses who have not won a stakes worth $55K or more in 2018 and he's the ONLY stakes winner in 2018 in the field. Top northern California jockey Hernandez comes into ride and has a 4-1-1 record on Alert Bay this year and last. Shipping down from Golden Gate where trainer Wright is based, the veteran gelding has put in a steady series of works and lays over this field on class and on speed, as his stakes win on turf last time out earned a 120 Equibase figure, the same he earned last spring (2017) when winning the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile easily. Last year's winner of this race, He Will (who races here) earned a 116 figure in victory but has run poorly since so will not be a threat to Alert Bay.

    Secretary At War, Kencumin and Le Ken all have run well enough in the past to get second or third so in addition to hopefully being able to bet Alert Bay to win even at low odds we can play exactas and trifectas using these three.

    Bets: Alert Bay to win at even money or higher, a true low odds overlay Key Bet.

    Exactas: Box Alert Bay and Secretary At War. Box Alert Bay and Kencumin. Box Alert Bay and Le Ken.

    Trifectas: Alert Bay over Secretary At War, Kencumin and Le Ken over ALL.

    You can get my detailed Breeders' Cup Classic analysis free at this link to Equibase and you can get my full card detailed analysis for both days of Breeders' Cup in the selections section on Equibase web site as well. 

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  • 26
    OCT

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 27

    Overskate Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:47 PM ET

    Not So Quiet is an up-and-coming star while some of the others in this race, already proven, are contenders as well but open at much lower than the 5 to 1 he opens at. Not So Quiet is three-for-four in his career, with all three wins earned in dominating fashion leading from start to finish. Hernandez was up for all three wins and rides today and there is little doubt the strategy will be to SEND the horse to the lead form the start and control things on the front end once more. The 114 Equibase figure from the most recent win, on 9/22, is better than ALL BUT ONE of the career Equibase figures likely heavy favorite Pink Lloyd has earned in his 16 wins and better (by one point) than the 113 figure Kingsport (who opens at 5 to 2) earned winning the Bounty Law Stakes 19 days ago. One of three 3-year-olds in the field, Not So Quiet has defeated older in all three wins and with a pair of scintillating five furlong drills (best of 58 and best of 50) coming into the race could be very tough to beat.

    Kingsport, who has won 10 of 29 career starts and who has finished second in another seven, certainly is a contender, as is Pink Lloyd, as well as Thor's Rocket, who led late in the Bounty Law and was a neck short of victory on the wire.

    Bets: Not So Quiet to win at 8 to 5 or higher, a true low odds overlay Key Bet.

    Exacta: Not So Quiet over Kingsport, Pink Lloyd and Thor's Rocket.

    Trifectas (which have a $0.20 minimum): Box Not So Quiet, Kingsport, Pink Lloyd and Thor's Rocket.

    Not So Quiet over Thor's Rocket over ALL.

    Not So Quiet over ALL over Thor's Rocket.

    Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

    Amiral may be something special based on the way he won last month in his career debut at Churchill Downs. In spite of being bothered by another horse at the start, resulting in breaking last of seven, Amiral made a bold move on the turn and drew off to win by four widening lengths. The 99 Equibase figure is more than average for winning at this first allowance level and the win came at this seven furlong trip, which is very difficult to win at first time out so there are no questions about the distance. After taking two weeks off, his first official workout was a sensational 46.8 for four furlongs which was the best of 82 on the day so there's little doubt he's holding his condition and in spite of this race having a big field there are very few other horses that an win.

    One of those is Midnight Pleasure, who is a three time winner still eligible for the level as one of the wins came in a claiming race and another came in a starter allowance race. Since returning from six weeks off in August, he's run two "A" races in a row to earn 95 and 94 figures, both when rallying from far back and in both drawing off nicely. Landeros rode him last out in victory at this seven furlong trip and another big effort is very likely.

    For exactas, we'll also use Ballard High (2nd by a nose in a one turn mile at the level last time out) and Mac Jagger (adding blinkers and getting Jose Ortiz off a 4th place effort at the distance and level in New York last month).

    Bets: Amiral and Midnight Pleasure to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta: Amiral and Midnight Pleasure over Amiral, Midnight Pleasure, Ballard High and Mac Jagger.

    For half the amount of the above exacta, play the reverse of the exacta, which is: Amiral, Midnight Pleasure, Ballard High and Mac Jagger over Amiral and Midnight Pleasure.

    Double: Amiral and Midnight Pleasure in Race 8 with Nice Not Nice and Leofric in Race 9.

    Hagyard Fayette Stakes - Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:30 PM ET

     

    Nice Not Nice may not be a standout, but he has a much better shot to win then his 10/1 morning line odds suggest. This is because two of the three morning line choices are vulnerable, potentially FALSE, favorites. Prime Attraction (who opens at 2/1) ships in from California and will be bet dropping from grade 1 to grade 3 and facing the likes of Accelerate but his last win came 11 months ago and he beat nothing the process. Hofburg is facing older for the first time off a poor 4th in the Pennsylvania Derby and in his win before that in the Curlin (a restricted stakes) he beat nothing of consequence as well. On the other hand, Nice Not Nice just ran the best race of his career when 2nd in the Ack Ack Stakes at Churchill Downs last month and the horses which finished ahead and just behind him are significant. Winner Seeking the Soul has earned $1.4 million while the horse Nice Not Nice beat by a nose for second, Giant Expectations, has earned $1 million. Gabriel Saez has the key to this horse as he's been aboard five times, earning three wins and two second place finishes, the only poor effort in a very tough field on turf at Kentucky Downs. With excellent tactical speed, Nice Not Nice could be up close early and in the photo on the wire at decent odds.

    Leofric is the other win contender in my opinion, coming off a third in the Woodward, beaten a nose for 2nd by Gunnevera. Both the winner Yoshida and runner-up are Breeders' Cup Classic bound and since Leofric won two in a row before that, with his Woodward effort and the one before it earning 110 Equibase figures, he is the one to beat in spite of likely being the 2nd or 3rd betting choice at post time.

    Bets: Nice Not Nice to win at 3 to 1 or more. Leofric to win at 8 to 5 or higher.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exactas: Nice Not Nice over ALL and also (the reverse) All over Nice Not Nice.

    Box Nice Not Nice and Leofric (even though contained in the bet above I think this is worth playing twice).

    Leofric over Nice Not Nice, Hence and Rated R Superstar. (I have no interest in exactas with the favorites to finish first and second.)

     

    Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:10 PM ET (3:10 PM PT)

    Zusha was best in her most recent race, a sprint at this level and similar distance on 9/29, but she ran into a wall of horses nearing the eighth pole and her jockey could not extricate her to find a path until too late. She gets a jockey change here in a field of horses who not only will set up her late kick nicely but also really are as content finishing 2nd or 3rd as winning.

    Bets: Zusha to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

    Exacta: Zusha over Sheza Chattycat, Conquest Flatterme, Hot Autumn and Cute Knows Cute.

    For a smaller amount (about half of what you bet on the exacta above), play the reverse of that exacta which is Sheza Chattycat, Conquest Flatterme, Hot Autumn and Cute Knows Cute over Zusha.

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  • 19
    OCT

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 20

    Maid of the Mist Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 3:42 PM ET

    Today is Empire Showcase day at Belmont and most of the state bred races are ho-hum affairs consisting of horses who take turns beating one another. Not so for the stakes for two year olds, this one for fillies and the Sleepy Hollow Stakes (Race 8) for males. This race features a field of 12, all running a one-turn mile for the first time, and there are some shots to take with horses who may be coming in under the radar of most bettors.

     

    Kept True ran the FASTEST of any of these when earning an 87 Equibase Figure in her debut, drawing off by a couple of lengths after showing a lot of maturity when stalking in fourth early and rallying in spite of being bumped at the 3/16 mark. Maragh rides back and she gets a similar outside post to go along with logical improvement physically and mentally off the debut. She opens at 6/1, more than a square price because if we assume most young horses improve at the same rate she still the fastest of this bunch. Sadie Lady opens at twice the odds of Kept True, 12/1, in spite of John Velazquez riding and a strong win last month in her debut when leading from start to finish. She adds Lasix for this race and may have the inside speed to get the lead again and get comfortable, making her tough to catch once more. The 80 debut figure was decent enough that if improved upon she can post the upset. Cartwheelin Lulu opens as the 7 to 2 morning line favorite on the strength of two wins including in a similar stakes for NY breds last month. That win was earned leading from start to finish and earned an 81 figure on par with Sadie Lady but we must note Cartwheelin Lulu earned a 68 figure first time out, so if Sadie Lady similarly improves 13 points she can win and if Kept True improves 10 or more points (even if the others do as well) she's the one to beat. Time Warp opens at hard to ignore 15 to 1 odds because she finished fifth in her last two races. However, a case can be made to ignore those two races and look to her effort three back as representative of what she's capable of. Last out in a two-turn race at Keeneland against open (not state bred) company, she led early and tired late and before that she broke through the gate before the race and was still allowed to run even though she may have expended too much energy before the gates open. Three back, at 7 furlongs, Time Warp stalked in second early and won easily and although she only earned a 70 figure it's very difficult to ignore a McPeek starter in a NY state bred race, a level at which the trained has had a good deal of success.

     

    For exactas we'll also use She's Trouble and Elegant Zip, the fourth and third finishers in the stakes won by Cartwheelin Lulu last month.

     

    Bets: Kept True to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

    For a smaller amount, Sadie Lady and Time Warp to win at 7 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

     

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta (recommendation 1 – two bets): Kept True over Sadie Lady, Time Warp, Cartwheelin Lulu, She's Trouble and Elegant Zip. Also play the reverse of the above exacta, which is Sadie Lady, Time Warp, Cartwheelin Lulu, She's Trouble and Elegant Zip over Kept True.

    Exacta (recommendation 2): Kept True, Sadie Lady, Time Warp and Cartwheelin Lulu over Kept True, Sadie Lady, Time Warp, Cartwheelin Lulu, She's Trouble and Elegant Zip

    Doubles: Kept True, Sadie Lady, Time Warp and Cartwheelin Lulu in Race 7 with Poppy's Destiny, Strive for a Cure, Albie, La Fuerza and True Gold in Race 8.

     

    Sleepy Hollow Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:15 PM Eastern

    Albie ran very well in his debut, not only because he won in a route, and on turf, without a prep first, but because he did so with a lot of maturity as he stalked the pacesetter in second then took over with an eighth of a mile to go and drew off a bit. The 92 Equibase figure is the best last race figure in the field and since it was his debut we can expect even better. I have no concern about him running as well on dirt as his dam (a Thunder Gulch mare) has produced dirt route winners and trainer Dilger is off to a very good start at the meeting, with a 4-1-2 record from 11 starts at the meeting and a very strong 12 for 60 record on the year. He opens at 12/1 which is way too high to ignore for a legitimate win contender. True Gold must draw into the race from the also-eligible list but if he does he's got a nice shot as he followed morning line favorite Dugout around the track in second in the similar NY Breeders' Futurity Stakes last month. Dugout won't be able to lead from start to finish as he did last out as there are AT LEAST four, possibly six, other horses with having the lead from the opening bell on their minds. Before that race, True Gold finished very well from sixth to miss by a nose and if he gets into the race we can expect that kind of closing kick and improvement off the 88 figure earned in that race which may be good enough to win. Strive for a Cure shipped in to NY from trainer Capuano's base in Maryland to win with a big rally from eighth last month in his debut then shipped back out for three drills. He ships back in and can improve a lot off the 76 figure effort with a fast pace in his favor so opening at 15/1 he must not be ignored. Poppy's Destiny finished second to a six length runaway winner in the Bongard Stakes last month after winning his debut and he's another who could be passing many here in the late stages. La Fuerza was third in the NY Breeders' Futurity, less than two lengths behind runner-up True Gold. He won the first two starts of his career in June and July including a NY Bred stakes race then won another on 9/8 before the Futurity so his 8/1 morning line makes him hard to ignore, particularly with John V riding for Pletcher.

    Bets: Albie to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

    If True Gold draws in, a win bet at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

    For smaller amounts, win and place bets on Strive for a Cure at 5 to 1 or more.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta: Box Poppy's Destiny, Strive for a Cure, Albie, La Fuerza and True Gold.

    Exacta (option 2): Albie over ALL and (the reverse) ALL over Albie.

    "IF" True Gold draws into the race, I plan on expanding the above to Albie and True Gold over ALL and (the reverse) ALL over Albie and True Gold.

    Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:57 PM ET (with Doubles to Race 8–The Raven Run Stakes)

    Superiority Complex fits the NW2X allowance conditions perfectly as she won her U.S. debut in August on turf at Arlington Park at the one lower NW1X level. Although not disgraced after that when 4th in a non-graded stakes at Woodbine on the all-weather surface, for the most part that race is irrelevant and it's the 8/18 effort which is the one to take note of and to predict improvement from. That effort earned a solid 99 Equibase figure, better than the 95 figure 2/1 morning line favorite Peru earned in her most recent start, also a win, and since Superioritycomplex was successful at 10 furlongs in Europe and is bred to run all day and then some (by Hard Spun out of a Galileo mare) there are no doubts if she improves or repeats that 8/18 effort she can win in an upset, opening at 10/1. Shezaprado won at a mile and five-sixteenth at Kentucky Downs on 9/6 then ran in the $360K Ramsey Farm Stakes and although overmatched finished to split the 10 horse field. Gaffalione rode her in both and rides back and the filly should be making a strong late run here as she goes for her 6th career win in her 18th career race on turf, just one behind the favorite Peru. Peru can't be discounted as a win contender but will be overbet like she was last month when winning at 4 to 5. That win came in a starter allowance race and prior to that she won at this level but was in for the optional claiming price of $62,500 that day, which leaves her eligible to run at the condition again. Jose Ortiz was up for the last win and rides back and except for being a poor win bet she must be considered a contender for all wagers involving this race.

    Bets: Superioritycomplex to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

    For a smaller amount, Shezaprado to win at 3 to 1 or higher.

    Exacta: Box Superioritycomplex, Shezaprado and Peru.

    Exacta: Superioritycomplex over ALL and also (the reverse) ALL over Superioritycomplex.

    Doubles: Superioritycomplex, Shezaprado and Peru in Race 8 with Alter Moon, Chauncey and Moonshine Memories in Race 9.

    Doubles: Superioritycomplex, Shezaprado and Peru in race 8 with Alter Moon, Chauncey, Moonshine Memories, Divine Queen, Shamrock Rose and Nootka Sound in Race 9.

    Race 12 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:45 PM ET

    Salieri won an identical race at the first allowance level and 7 furlong trip on the main track on 8/25 but was disqualified because, when full of run and blocked, he bulled his way through horses. He was 7/2 that day but opens at 10/1 here and his two race since are considered completely irrelevant as both were on turf. Back on the main track if he can run back to the 8/25 effort and rock solid 96 Equibase figure he can post the upset. Chiricahua Signal also moves back to the main track after an irrelevant turf try, having won three back although at a lower level but with a 94 figure under Kimura, who rides back. Trainer Ensom is having a huge meeting with 65 first or second place finishes from 163 starts and the gelding can be competitive with his best effort. Blu Without You is a nice longshot play opening at 20/1 as the Fairlie barn has been stealthy and quietly posting a good number of upsets at the meeting. The horse just won by four lengths at the 7 furlong trip and although it was a claiming race, because he also won his last race at 7 furlongs on the main track in July his chances can't be discounted here. He broke his maiden in straight maiden company in the summer of 2016 at the trip then was off for 21 months but has a lot of potential to outrun high odds.

     

    Bets: Salieri to win at 7 to 2 or higher, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. The same for Chiricahua Signal (who also opens at 10/1). For a smaller amount and so as not to be kicking ourselves after the race, Blu Without You can be bet for a least a few bucks to win and place at 5 to 1 or more.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta: Salieri, Chiricahua Signal and Blue Without You over Salieri, Chiricahua Signal, Blue Without You, Magical Man, Malibu Secret, Cash Dividend and Waldorf.

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  • 12
    OCT

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 13

    Nearctic Stakes – Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:30 PM ET

    Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra are the win contenders, the first two opening at superb double digit odds out of line with their probability to win (in my opinion) and Lady Alexandra very interesting if her connections choose this spot against males over the race at Belmont. Hemp Hemp Hooray has a record of 3-3-0 in seven races. I know he's run eight times but his race at Ascot doesn't count in my opinion. He adds blinkers worn for his first three races but not his next four and his three races in blinkers consisted of two wins and a neck loss last year in the G2 Summer Stakes here at Woodbine. He's been based here since coming back from England and has finished 2nd twice in stakes against three year olds only, both superb efforts to the same horse, who is not racing here. Hemp Hemp Hooray put in a two phenomenal workouts coming into the race and Hernandez, up for his last two "A" efforts, rides back. As such, all signs point to an odds beating effort.

     

    Similarly, if we bet Hemp Hemp Hooray was MUST ALSO BET Kitten's Cat, as they form an uncoupled entry owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and trained by Mike Maker. Since they share common ownership and this is a graded stakes they run uncoupled and that helps us because if they were coupled the entry would be 5 to 1 instead of the 20/1 on Hemp Hemp Hooray and the 12/1 starting odds on Kitten's Cat. Kitten's Cat was stakes placed as a three year old and just won at this six furlong turf trip over the track with leading rider Da Silva up for the first time, riding back again. The colt earned a career best 102 figure last out and has improving to do as he was flattered when both the runner-up and third finisher came back to win. By the way, Kitten's Cat won the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes as a two year old so he's proven at the top level.

     

    I won't go over my analysis of why Lady Alexandra is a contender as I discussed that in detail earlier in the blog when going over the Floral Park Stakes. She led late and missed by a neck in the G1 Highlander Stakes, also versus males in June, North American leading rider Jose Ortiz up then and named to ride her here. Her back-to-back 113 Equibase figure efforts in April and June are some of the best in the field and she's a four year old so has improving to do.

     

    For the second position on exacta tickets, in addition to the three win contenders and because two of them open at double digit odds, we can spread with Yorkton, Bushrod and Ikerrin Road.

     

    Bets: BOTH Hemp Hemp Hooray and Kitten's Cat to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more. Add place bets at 6 to 1 or more. Bet Lady Alexandra to win at 7 to 2 or more as well. I think three win bets are acceptable here given the edge over the rest of the field.

     

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

     

    Exacta: Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra over Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat, Lady Alexandra, Yorkton, Bushrod and Ikerrin Road.

     

    $0.20 Pick 3 (not necessarily a smart bet but one that could pay very well given the high odds contenders in this race and the ninth race)

    Race 7 - Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra

    Race 8 – ALL

    Race 9 – Thundering Blue, Khan, Funtastic, English Illusion, Johnny Bear and Focus Group

    Floral Park Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:43 PM Eastern

    Lady Alexandra, who is also entered to run in the Nearctic Stakes at Woodbine on Saturday, gets slight preference among four win contenders if she runs here. She loves the Belmont turf where she's three-for-four including a stakes win the last time she ran here in April. We can completely ignore her most recent race which was on the all-weather at Presque Isle Downs and before that she ran huge when missing by a neck (after leading late) against males at the trip in the Grade 1 Highlander Stakes, winning the License Fee Stakes over the course prior to that. She put in a big workout at trainer Motion's Fair Hills base last week and is set for an "A" effort good enough to win given her back-to-back 113 Equibase figure efforts in the License Fee and Highlander.

    Next in terms of probability are a pair of horses at decent odds in Fire Key and Tillie's Lily with Fire Key having finished first or second in 13 or 22 career races including 11 of 16 on turf, even better still eight of nine at short sprints distances like this one. She put in three really bad efforts in a row in July and August but turned a corner last month winning a 100K stakes similar to this one with Pimental aboard, who comes in to ride from Maryland. Last fall when at the top of her game she ran three "A" races in a row for 113 and 112 figures comparable with the best Lady Alexandra has run and so she does have a shot to upset. The same holds true for Tillie's Lilly, who opens at lower odds than Fire Key, 5/1 compared to 8/1. Nevertheless this filly has a lot of talent as she won the first four races of her career, all turf sprints including her only try at Belmont. She ran poorly in her first stakes try at Saratoga but she was bumped and pinched at the start, denying her first or second position in the early stages she had in all four starts prior to that. She was on an improving pattern from 102 to 106 figures before last and has improving to do as a lightly raced four year old.

    Lull rounds out the win contenders, a bit of an underlay opening at 3/1 but a must to use on exacta, trifecta and double tickets. She made her four year old debut in March with a game win in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes at a mile then finished third in the Grade 1 Just a Game on Belmont Stakes day, a big effort behind Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf bound A Raving Beauty. She finished third, then second, in a pair of stakes coming into the race, the most recent with a 112 figure comparable, but not superior, to two of the other three contenders and with a 5-4-3 record in 16 career turf starts she's prove quite competitive.

    Win Bet: Lady Alexandra to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more, Fire Key to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher and Tillie's Lily to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

    "IF" Lady Alexandra's connections choose to run in the Nearctic Stakes and scratch out of this race, the Win Bets are: Fire Key at odds of 5 to 2 or higher and Tillie's Lily to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta bets: Box Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull. (If Lady Alexandra scratches play the remaining three horses).

    Trifecta bets: Lady Alexandra over Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull over ALL.

    Also play a trifecta box consisting of Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull. (If Lady Alexandra scratches play the remaining three horses).

    Doubles: Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull in Race 8 with Victorine in Race 9.

    Doubles: Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull in Race 8 with Victorine, Cool Beans and Got Stormy in Race 9.

    Doubles: Lady Alexandra in Race 8 with Victorine, Cool Beans and Got Stormy in Race 9.

     

    Pebbles Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont - Post Time 5:18 PM ET

    Victorine won two of her last three starts in France before a fourth of eight finish in the G2 Sands Point last month over the course. She did not race on Lasix for that race but adds Lasix today and that could easily be the key to running back to her best efforts. She cuts back in distance from nine furlongs to eight as she transitions to the strong Clement barn which is winning at nearly a 33% clip in the last month (on 39 races) and which is 22 for 88 with Rosario aboard (as today) in the past year. As such, we should expect big improvement and the slight upset win as the filly opens at six to one.

    Got Stormy and Cool Beans are the other two win contenders in my opinion. Got Stormy has won three straight and was dominant in her last two starts, both stakes at a mile on grass. She's won at four tracks in her career but just the same she's NOT A STANDOUT as her last three wins earned 102, 82 and 90 Equibase figures, compared to 95 for Victorine even when fourth in the Sands Point Stakes last month. Cool Beans offers excellent value for a second win bet (after Victorine) as she opens at 10 to 1. She only wins when she leads from the start but even if she does lead she doesn't necessarily win. However, she hangs on tremendously as she's been second in three of her last four starts, with a win in the other race, last time out at Saratoga with a 103 figure that compares very well with the best of these. Red hot Brad Cox has done a wonderful job with this gal and we must remember all of these are three year olds so there's no edge in the maturity department for any of them.

    For the runner-up spot on exacta tickets we will use Monte Cristo, Significand Form and Altea, the first two opening at fairly low odds of 7/2 and 5/1, respectively, although they get potentially disadvantageous outside posts.

    Bets: Victorine to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Consider a second win bet, for a smaller amount, on Cool Beans at odds of 4 to 1 or more. Got Stormy opens at 3 to 1 and the minimum odds I'd consider a win bet would be 7 to 2 so it's unlikely she would be a good win bet.

    Exacta: Victorine, Got Stormy and Cool Beans over Victorine, Got Stormy, Cool Beans, Monte Cristo, Significand Form and Altea.

     

    Pattison Canadian International – Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:41 PM ET

    Thundering Blue is the 2 to 1 starting favorite but does stand out even in a grade 1 stakes field. He won the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes on July 28 and finished third in a BIG effort behind Roaring Lion and Poet's Word (who beat him only a half-length for second) in the Group 1 Juddmonte International. He then ran a big effort in the 12 furlong Stockholm Cup International. There's no way to know who he beat in that one but it was a field of 12 and even if just a paid workout it served its purpose. He had trouble multiple times in the late stages of the York Stakes and jockey Berry has ridden him fantastically in four straight so accompanying the gelding across the pond is a big sign for another "A" effort good enough to win.

     

    Khan is another import, with a career best effort in his most recent race, the group 1 stakes in Germany. Similar to Thundering Blue, he may not have beaten much last time out but he powered home to win by six lengths after stalking the pace early on a soggy course so could run even better in this situation with the jockey that rode him last out also coming in to ride.

     

    Of the local contingent, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion are worth a look. Even though I feel Focus Group is the only one of the four worth a win bet I will STILL ALSO bet a few bucks on English Illusions so as not to be kicking myself later if he pays $60 to win. English Illusion was just a length behind Johnny Bear in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer last month and should not be double that one's odds (15/1 versus 8/1) on the morning line. Back to Focus Group, he's one of two trained by Chad Brown, getting Jose Ortiz to ride and coming off two career best efforts with 118 and 116 figures, the most recent at a mile and five-eighths, so getting this mile and one-half trip is not a question. He hasn't proven himself in a graded stakes yet but he's just four and I refuse to let Chad Brown beat me at 10/1 with a horse having a legitimate shot.

    Bets: Thundering Blue to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.

    Second win bets may be warranted on Khan and on Focus Group at odds of 7 to 2 or more, adding place bets at 5 to 1 or higher.

    As mentioned previously, a WIN, PLACE and SHOW bet on English Illusion at odds of 10 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Thundering Blue over Khan, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion

    Exactas: Thundering Blue, Khan and Focus Group over Thundering Blue, Khan, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion.

    Also play the reverse of that exacta, which is Thundering Blue, Khan, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion over Thundering Blue, Khan and Focus Group.

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  • 12
    OCT

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 13

    Nearctic Stakes – Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:30 PM ET

    Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra are the win contenders, the first two opening at superb double digit odds out of line with their probability to win (in my opinion) and Lady Alexandra very interesting if her connections choose this spot against males over the race at Belmont. Hemp Hemp Hooray has a record of 3-3-0 in seven races. I know he's run eight times but his race at Ascot doesn't count in my opinion. He adds blinkers worn for his first three races but not his next four and his three races in blinkers consisted of two wins and a neck loss last year in the G2 Summer Stakes here at Woodbine. He's been based here since coming back from England and has finished 2nd twice in stakes against three year olds only, both superb efforts to the same horse, who is not racing here. Hemp Hemp Hooray put in a two phenomenal workouts coming into the race and Hernandez, up for his last two "A" efforts, rides back. As such, all signs point to an odds beating effort.

    Similarly, if we bet Hemp Hemp Hooray was MUST ALSO BET Kitten's Cat, as they form an uncoupled entry owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and trained by Mike Maker. Since they share common ownership and this is a graded stakes they run uncoupled and that helps us because if they were coupled the entry would be 5 to 1 instead of the 20/1 on Hemp Hemp Hooray and the 12/1 starting odds on Kitten's Cat. Kitten's Cat was stakes placed as a three year old and just won at this six furlong turf trip over the track with leading rider Da Silva up for the first time, riding back again. The colt earned a career best 102 figure last out and has improving to do as he was flattered when both the runner-up and third finisher came back to win. By the way, Kitten's Cat won the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes as a two year old so he's proven at the top level.

    I won't go over my analysis of why Lady Alexandra is a contender as I discussed that in detail earlier in the blog when going over the Floral Park Stakes. She led late and missed by a neck in the G1 Highlander Stakes, also versus males in June, North American leading rider Jose Ortiz up then and named to ride her here. Her back-to-back 113 Equibase figure efforts in April and June are some of the best in the field and she's a four year old so has improving to do.

    For the second position on exacta tickets, in addition to the three win contenders and because two of them open at double digit odds, we can spread with Yorkton, Bushrod and Ikerrin Road.

    Bets: BOTH Hemp Hemp Hooray and Kitten's Cat to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more. Add place bets at 6 to 1 or more. Bet Lady Alexandra to win at 7 to 2 or more as well. I think three win bets are acceptable here given the edge over the rest of the field.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta: Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra over Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat, Lady Alexandra, Yorkton, Bushrod and Ikerrin Road.

    $0.20 Pick 3 (not necessarily a smart bet but one that could pay very well given the high odds contenders in this race and the ninth race)

    Race 7 - Hemp Hemp Hooray, Kitten's Cat and Lady Alexandra

    Race 8 – ALL

    Race 9 – Thundering Blue, Khan, Funtastic, English Illusion, Johnny Bear and Focus Group

    Floral Park Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:43 PM Eastern

    Lady Alexandra, who is also entered to run in the Nearctic Stakes at Woodbine on Saturday, gets slight preference among four win contenders if she runs here. She loves the Belmont turf where she's three-for-four including a stakes win the last time she ran here in April. We can completely ignore her most recent race which was on the all-weather at Presque Isle Downs and before that she ran huge when missing by a neck (after leading late) against males at the trip in the Grade 1 Highlander Stakes, winning the License Fee Stakes over the course prior to that. She put in a big workout at trainer Motion's Fair Hills base last week and is set for an "A" effort good enough to win given her back-to-back 113 Equibase figure efforts in the License Fee and Highlander.

    Next in terms of probability are a pair of horses at decent odds in Fire Key and Tillie's Lily with Fire Key having finished first or second in 13 or 22 career races including 11 of 16 on turf, even better still eight of nine at short sprints distances like this one. She put in three really bad efforts in a row in July and August but turned a corner last month winning a 100K stakes similar to this one with Pimental aboard, who comes in to ride from Maryland. Last fall when at the top of her game she ran three "A" races in a row for 113 and 112 figures comparable with the best Lady Alexandra has run and so she does have a shot to upset. The same holds true for Tillie's Lilly, who opens at lower odds than Fire Key, 5/1 compared to 8/1. Nevertheless this filly has a lot of talent as she won the first four races of her career, all turf sprints including her only try at Belmont. She ran poorly in her first stakes try at Saratoga but she was bumped and pinched at the start, denying her first or second position in the early stages she had in all four starts prior to that. She was on an improving pattern from 102 to 106 figures before last and has improving to do as a lightly raced four year old.

    Lull rounds out the win contenders, a bit of an underlay opening at 3/1 but a must to use on exacta, trifecta and double tickets. She made her four year old debut in March with a game win in the Grade 3 Honey Fox Stakes at a mile then finished third in the Grade 1 Just a Game on Belmont Stakes day, a big effort behind Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf bound A Raving Beauty. She finished third, then second, in a pair of stakes coming into the race, the most recent with a 112 figure comparable, but not superior, to two of the other three contenders and with a 5-4-3 record in 16 career turf starts she's prove quite competitive.

    Win Bet: Lady Alexandra to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more, Fire Key to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher and Tillie's Lily to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

    "IF" Lady Alexandra's connections choose to run in the Nearctic Stakes and scratch out of this race, the Win Bets are: Fire Key at odds of 5 to 2 or higher and Tillie's Lily to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta bets: Box Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull. (If Lady Alexandra scratches play the remaining three horses).

    Trifecta bets: Lady Alexandra over Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull over ALL.

    Also play a trifecta box consisting of Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull. (If Lady Alexandra scratches play the remaining three horses).

    Doubles: Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull in Race 8 with Victorine in Race 9.

    Doubles: Lady Alexandra, Fire Key, Tillie's Lily and Lull in Race 8 with Victorine, Cool Beans and Got Stormy in Race 9.

    Doubles: Lady Alexandra in Race 8 with Victorine, Cool Beans and Got Stormy in Race 9.

     

    Pebbles Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont - Post Time 5:18 PM ET

    Victorine won two of her last three starts in France before a fourth of eight finish in the G2 Sands Point last month over the course. She did not race on Lasix for that race but adds Lasix today and that could easily be the key to running back to her best efforts. She cuts back in distance from nine furlongs to eight as she transitions to the strong Clement barn which is winning at nearly a 33% clip in the last month (on 39 races) and which is 22 for 88 with Rosario aboard (as today) in the past year. As such, we should expect big improvement and the slight upset win as the filly opens at six to one.

    Got Stormy and Cool Beans are the other two win contenders in my opinion. Got Stormy has won three straight and was dominant in her last two starts, both stakes at a mile on grass. She's won at four tracks in her career but just the same she's NOT A STANDOUT as her last three wins earned 102, 82 and 90 Equibase figures, compared to 95 for Victorine even when fourth in the Sands Point Stakes last month. Cool Beans offers excellent value for a second win bet (after Victorine) as she opens at 10 to 1. She only wins when she leads from the start but even if she does lead she doesn't necessarily win. However, she hangs on tremendously as she's been second in three of her last four starts, with a win in the other race, last time out at Saratoga with a 103 figure that compares very well with the best of these. Red hot Brad Cox has done a wonderful job with this gal and we must remember all of these are three year olds so there's no edge in the maturity department for any of them.

    For the runner-up spot on exacta tickets we will use Monte Cristo, Significand Form and Altea, the first two opening at fairly low odds of 7/2 and 5/1, respectively, although they get potentially disadvantageous outside posts.

    Bets: Victorine to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more. Consider a second win bet, for a smaller amount, on Cool Beans at odds of 4 to 1 or more. Got Stormy opens at 3 to 1 and the minimum odds I'd consider a win bet would be 7 to 2 so it's unlikely she would be a good win bet.

    Exacta: Victorine, Got Stormy and Cool Beans over Victorine, Got Stormy, Cool Beans, Monte Cristo, Significand Form and Altea.

     

    Pattison Canadian International – Race 9 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:18 PM ET

    Thundering Blue is the 2 to 1 starting favorite but does stand out even in a grade 1 stakes field. He won the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes on July 28 and finished third in a BIG effort behind Roaring Lion and Poet's Word (who beat him only a half-length for second) in the Group 1 Juddmonte International. He then ran a big effort in the 12 furlong Stockholm Cup International. There's no way to know who he beat in that one but it was a field of 12 and even if just a paid workout it served its purpose. He had trouble multiple times in the late stages of the York Stakes and jockey Berry has ridden him fantastically in four straight so accompanying the gelding across the pond is a big sign for another "A" effort good enough to win.

    Khan is another import, with a career best effort in his most recent race, the group 1 stakes in Germany. Similar to Thundering Blue, he may not have beaten much last time out but he powered home to win by six lengths after stalking the pace early on a soggy course so could run even better in this situation with the jockey that rode him last out also coming in to ride.

    Of the local contingent, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion are worth a look. Even though I feel Focus Group is the only one of the four worth a win bet I will STILL ALSO bet a few bucks on English Illusions so as not to be kicking myself later if he pays $60 to win. English Illusion was just a length behind Johnny Bear in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer last month and should not be double that one's odds (15/1 versus 8/1) on the morning line. Back to Focus Group, he's one of two trained by Chad Brown, getting Jose Ortiz to ride and coming off two career best efforts with 118 and 116 figures, the most recent at a mile and five-eighths, so getting this mile and one-half trip is not a question. He hasn't proven himself in a graded stakes yet but he's just four and I refuse to let Chad Brown beat me at 10/1 with a horse having a legitimate shot.

    Bets: Thundering Blue to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.

    Second win bets may be warranted on Khan and on Focus Group at odds of 7 to 2 or more, adding place bets at 5 to 1 or higher.

    As mentioned previously, a WIN, PLACE and SHOW bet on English Illusion at odds of 10 to 1 or more.

    Exactas: Thundering Blue over Khan, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion

    Exactas: Thundering Blue, Khan and Focus Group over Thundering Blue, Khan, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion.

    Also play the reverse of that exacta, which is Thundering Blue, Khan, Focus Group, Johnny Bear, Funtastic, Tiz a Slam and English Illusion over Thundering Blue, Khan and Focus Group.

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  • 05
    OCT

    Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 6

    Hill Prince Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:00 PM Eastern

    Have At It and Prioritize just finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the Better Talk Now Stakes at Saratoga, separated by a neck at odds of 7/1 and 9/1. In spite of running very well in a similar stakes, they open at 8/1 and, even more out of line, 15/1, because of the nature of how heavily Chad Brown's Raging Bull will be bet, opening at 6/5. However, these are ALL three year olds and when comparing the 98 Equibase Figure Raging Bull earned winning the Saranac Stakes to the 102 and 100 figures Have At It and Prioritize earned just five days earlier, the keys to profit in this race are obvious. Add to the mix Ride a Comet, who finished third behind Raging Bull in the Hall of Fame Stakes on August 3 then flattered that one by shipping to California to win the Del Mar Derby, with a field high and career best 113 figure on par with the 113 Raging Bull earned in the Hall of Fame. Both those figures would be dominant if repeated but with Raging Bull earning a 95 figure when second in the Manila before the Hall of Fame, the 113 figure effort looks to be an outlier. I'm not sure about the big effort Ride a Comet put in last out, but then again comparing his 3/1 starting odds to the odds offered on both Have At It and Prioritize, I'll still be happy keying on the two higher odds horses on exactas, with a very specific trifecta strategy below to cover the favorites running well.

    Win & Place Bets: Have At It to win at 5/2 or more, adding a place bet at 5/1, a KEY BET on the day.

    For a smaller amount, Prioritize to win at 7/2 or higher, adding a place bet at 5/1 or more.

    As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

    Exacta bets: We will split the favorites as there's no value in them finishing first and second, as follows:

    Box Have At It, Prioritize and Raging Bull. Box Have At It, Prioritize and Ride a Comet.

    Trifecta: Raging Bull and Ride a Comet over Have At It and Prioritize over Raging Bull, Ride a Comet, Have At It and Prioritize.

    Doubles: ALL in Race 9 with Trophy Chaser in Race 10

    Have At It and Prioritize in Race 9 with ALL in Race 10

    Raging Bull, Ride a Comet, Have At It and Prioritize in Race 9 with Trophy Chaser in Race 10

    Have At It and Prioritize in Race 9 with Endorsed, Trophy Chaser, Complexity, Call Paul and Aurelius Maximus in Race 10.

     

    Speakeasy Stakes – Race 4 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:05 PM ET (2:05 PM PT)

    Mae Never No is a standout in this "Win & You're In" to the new Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Trained by Wesley Ward, who rarely ships to California, she's a filly facing males, which Ward does an incredible job with in spotting where his young fillies can beat boys. Although Keeneland, Ward's home base, is running the Indian Summer Stakes, another BC Juvenile Turf Sprint prep, Ward ships because he also has a very strong contender in that race, the filly Chelsea Cloisters. Mae Never No has won two of three, the most recent a stakes race when leading start to finish, the other in May in her debut from off the pace under Stevens, who gets the call here.

    For some doubles and pick 3's we will also use Hartel and Owning, who don't look as fast as Mae Never Know, but who appear so far superior to the other four that for the purposes of multi-race bets have to be considered, particularly as I am taking a shot for the upset in race 5.

    Bets: Mae Never Know to win at 8 to 5 or more, a low odds overlay KEY BET.

    Doubles: Mae Never Know in Race 4 with All in Race 5.

    ALL in Race 4 with Distinctive B in Race 5

    Mae Never Know, Hartel and Owning in Race 4 with Distinctive B in Race 5.

    Pick 3: (3 options:

    Race 4 – Mae Never Know, Hartel, Owning

    Race 5 – Roy H, Distinctive B, Ransom the Moon

    Race 6 – Miss Southern Miss, Fizzy Friday, Poster Girl, Rubilinda

    Race 4 – Mae Never Know

    Race 5 – Roy H, Distinctive B, Ransom the Moon

    Race 6 – Miss Southern Miss, Fizzy Friday, Poster Girl, Rubilinda

     

    Race 4 – Mae Never Know, Hartel, Owning

    Race 5 – Distinctive B

    Race 6 – Miss Southern Miss, Fizzy Friday, Poster Girl, Rubilinda

     

    Champagne Stakes – Race 10 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:35 PM ET

    The principal "Occam's Razor" suggests when there are two solutions, the simpler (or more obvious) is usually correct. When applied to handicapping, it means if a horse looks like the best horse, in the absence of contrary evidence, it usually is. Of course, applying the principal all the time just puts us on the same horse as most of the public (the favorite) and that's no fun. However, in this year's Champagne Stakes, the obvious horse, Trophy Chaser, opens at 10/1 and that has to be taken advantage of. Trophy Chaser, like most of the others in this race, broke his maiden in his most recent race. That was a six furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park. Not only did he win by 15 3/4 lengths, he earned a 115 Equibase figure, normally higher than the figure earned by the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile next month on a historical basis. The effort and figure do not appear to be inflated, as other speed figure makers have his figure the best in the field as well, and the figure wasn't earned leading from start to finish, rather the colts showed maturity sitting in 2nd in the early stages. With a strong workout coming into the race and a solid local jockey in Junior Alvarado riding, if this colt goes off anywhere near double digit odds it could prove to be a gift not only because of everything mentioned previously but also because the runner-up came back to win and the 3rd finisher improved to finish 2nd in his next start.

    The uncoupled Brown entry of Complexity and Aurelius Maximus are talented colts who win by 4 1/4 and 7 3/4 lengths, respectively, last out, with 104 and 95 figures to improve upon. Endorsed was very impressive rallying to get up by a neck with a 106 figure, and Call Paul won the Saratoga Special with a mediocre 88 figure but earned a 102 figure in his debut and is another talented colt. However, none of them offer the value Trophy Chaser offers.

    Bets: Trophy Chaser to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 4 to 1 or more.

     

    Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes – Race 5 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:38 PM ET, (2:38 PM PT)

    In spite of the class of both Roy H and Ransom the Moon, I am going to take a shot with Distinctive B, who may be all alone on an easy early lead in this short field. Horses often outrun their own ability when on an easy early lead and can gain a confidence sometimes seen never before or after those kinds of efforts. Distinctive B earned a career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure in his most recent start, on August 26, when coasting to an easy four and one-half length win, so it is presumed he could have run even faster. Last year, Roy H earned a 117 figure when second to Ransom the Moon in the Bing Crosby Stakes before winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship and that is the kind of effort Distinctive B may be capable of that could propel him to the upset win.

     

    Ransom the Moon and Roy H don't need any talking up, each having won two of four meetings versus the other, with the former having won the Bing Crosby recently and the latter having won this race last year before winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

    Bets: Distinctive B to win at 2 to 1 or more.

    (note: If we are alive in doubles we don't need to make a win bet)

    Exactas: Box Distinctive B and Roy H. Box Distinctive B and Ransom the Moon

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